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12/30 Coastal Part II - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

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I honestly can't believe people are posting about the RPM. There are times where it is worthwhile and there are times that it is worth nothing. This is one of those times.

Looking forward to about 3" in Hartford.

I posted about it as a joke...in all honesty, the NAM hasn't been any better recently.

Even the SREFs have been pretty cruddy recently too. The meso models as a whole have not had their finest winter so far. Which is unfortunate, because this is the type of event where the mesos might be more useful....but since we can't trust them at all right now, we are left waiting for the globals to come out and only talk about the mesos in passing.

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I honestly can't believe people are posting about the RPM. There are times where it is worthwhile and there are times that it is worth nothing. This is one of those times.

Looking forward to about 3" in Hartford.

Ok when would it be useful? Seems like Jerry's others crazy uncle, ya know the one that lives in Rays woodshed.
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Blame the media for the RPM. I blame Ryan and the weenie OCMs.

Jerry, I think 2-4 for me still. If I bust to 5 or 6"..that's not bad. If the GFS and Euro boost up QPF, then it's a little different.

The one thing that scares me are the meso models. This is a tight vortmax with a low the wants to move NNE first along a baroclinic zone. Good candidate for rapid deepening off the Delmarva. It also may have a compact comma head which further complicates things too. Until I see the GFS and Euro budge, something still makes me not want to go terribly bullish here.

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the 4km nam dumps like 3.5" QPF at CHH.

I think it gave 4.5 to 5.5 in orh hills this last storm. I find the btv wrf model is decent meso model. I'd like to know what that prints out. I think the mesos will be useful wrt areas that are favored as well as if sharp cutoffs occur. They nailed the waltham woburn melrose newburyport qpf max on last storm.
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I always wondered if there was any money in weather model programming. I mean WSI must have paid big bucks for some group of programmers to come up with a model that is only usefull when it's sunny 70/45

Actually, it has done well in convection and several events this year. Actually had Ray's screw job recently too. It's a 4km meso model that is prone to crazy non-hydrostatic processes like an ARW or any other meso model.

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Actually, it has done well in convection and several events this year. Actually had Ray's screw job recently too. It's a 4km meso model that is prone to crazy non-hydrostatic processes like an ARW or any other meso model.

Yeah it's worth a look but it rarely sways my decision making process. I never show it on tv for snow or rain totals.

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Interesting that no matter how strong the northern s/w gets, the coastal low and associated precip shield never get much further NW across SNE. However, as expected, modeled QPF is increasing across parts of NYS in response to the "primary" wave.

Very impressive surface pressure falls on the NAM. The SLP deepens something like 20mb in 12 hours and 36mb in 24 hours! A total bomb. Unfortunately bombing lows often have very compact precip fields. Could be some 2" per hour + rates down in SEMA tomorrow night.

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Will if u say the meso models score a coup on compact vorts like this, which ones do you use for hints of how this storm will evolve

NAM/SREF/RGEM are usually the go-to mesomodels...sometimes the suny MM5...but most of them have been pretty bad this winter. The NAM has been horrific. So its difficult to trust them right now.

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