earthlight Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Anyone care to make a nowcast / verification check on H5 of the 12z/18z models... can we predict based on current mesoanalysis where 0z suite will trend before it comes out? Correct me if I'm wrong: On 23z RAP at 1 hr vs. 18z NAM/GFS at same period: I'm seeing significantly more vorticity and maximum centered a good 50+ miles more east at the Missouri-Arkansas border... if true and incorporated into 0z suite, we could see a further trend NW due to earlier capture. Nice catch...NAM seemed to initialize it pretty well but it definitely made some height field adjustments (slightly more amplified) to the east compared to the 6hr 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 lol SWCT slant. Im sure some do. However, I do know of grinch and myself. technically in SWCT however, both at a very high elevation for our area, which is why we do so well compared to most.. for example.. i work 13 miles south of where I live seymour to stratford.. there is no snow in stratford, in fact no snow in derby 5 miles away, however at my house, and probably grinch between 600-800 elevation we have 3-5" of snow on the ground.. I fully expect tomorrow to get more precip than the SWCT coast even though we might see less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That comma head better not move NW, I don't mind snow but 9", no thanks. You can disperse anything above 5" evenly to those who want it. lol. Is that a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Thanks Ginx. Seems significant, we'll see how it plays out. Always nice to add a little more meteorology / forecasting / analysis to all the model-humping... trying to predict trends before the 0z spits out the answer. I (and Fella / Zeus / Coastal) want a piece of that commahead... it's been 2 years. (and I'm flattered... I'll be back on the bench when Saki is back online) I'm actually impressed with the disco this evening in between rpm musings. Good stuff. A slight nw tick is possible as we've discuss. Hopefully it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Thanks Ginx. Seems significant, we'll see how it plays out. Always nice to add a little more meteorology / forecasting / analysis to all the model-humping... trying to predict trends before the 0z spits out the answer. I (and Fella / Zeus / Coastal) want a piece of that commahead... it's been 2 years. N (and I'm flattered... I'll be back on the bench when Saki is back online) On the way home from work I was thinking back to years past when the Euro would show an absolute beast for a run three days out, lose it and then gradually come back to it. That would be awesome for my good friends out in the eastern areas who most definetly deserve a blast from the past. At least it will get them to simmer down. Please please do not let Ray get shafted, I fear for his sanity.j.k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 srefs seem pretty juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I wish people would not post the RPM. Like ever. Was it ever posted before today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this thread has more ups and downs than a prime time soap opera lol let us not all forget that there was one particular se ct/ southern and central ri hit in recent times...12-19-10 a couple friends of mine down there said there was easily 20 to 24 inches and insane drifts, 2-3 in/hr snowfall rates, etc. so it can happen down that way and has as of late as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Personally, I think 8-9" is on the higher end of things right now, but that s/w is really looking decent compared to modeling. I think this thing has a potential to come in slightly sharper even still. I think there'll be widespread 5-7" totals, but with 8-9" embedded amounts from Woonsocket eastward. I'm just tossing around ideas, but I do think it's possible. This seems very reasonable. Short duration means high bust potential. And you can't even guarentee 5" (would take several hours of mod - heavy snow), although that seems a good bet. A handful of model runs and individual ens members have sporadically ramped up QPF, so it has to be considered viable. But it will likely become a nowcasting situation. And there are usually imbedded heavier bands that will determine who cashes in... just check the radar in southern IL into IN. The northern stream s/w sure does look potent, but I've noticed that its steadily increasing strengh on the guidance over the past 2 days has not translated into significantly higher QPF in SNE. I think the changes have mostly benefited IL, IN, KY, OH, PA, and parts of NY. At this point I think the heaviest stuff stays offshore and eastern areas receive a moderate snowstorm. But we've all seen less impressive storms deliver double digit totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 srefs seem pretty juiced Phil, seriously, looking at Mesoanalysis I am getting a little pumped. This could explode right at your belly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 lol. Is that a joke? I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 this thread has more ups and downs than a prime time soap opera lol let us not all forget that there was one particular se ct/ southern and central ri hit in recent times...12-19-10 a couple friends of mine down there said there was easily 20 to 24 inches and insane drifts, 2-3 in/hr snowfall rates, etc. so it can happen down that way and has as of late as well Best storm since 78 on the RI beach front, I posted about a gizillion PF type pics that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 They need to move the mountains closer to Boston. I'm watching all of you and keeping a naughty or nice list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 def more vorticity around the back side of the trof on the 00z NAM as noted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Jerry, we were on the Common this afternoon. Dang are those squirrels fat bastads They're all lying bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Phil, seriously, looking at Mesoanalysis I am getting a little pumped. This could explode right at your belly. This has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My favorite crazy uncle model the ARW came north. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 They need to move the mountains closer to Boston. I'm watching all of you and keeping a naughty or nice list weenie depths south of Gray I am told. Pictures of Vortex were amazing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I said the NW trend would continue...yet few believed...but look what we have here to start the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My favorite crazy uncle model the ARW came north. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/rsmloop.html those meso models are the ones that scare me. they are a whole different story from the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I said the NW trend would continue...yet few believed...but look what we have here to start the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My favorite crazy uncle model the ARW came north. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/rsmloop.html Now that's RPM style, Phil would get annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 those meso models are the ones that scare me. they are a whole different story from the globals. This is the type of system that meso models score a coup on...very potent vortmax and fariyl compact system. We saw the meso models take the globals to the woodshed in 1/12/11. I just wish the NAM was more reliable recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I said the NW trend would continue...yet few believed...but look what we have here to start the 00z suite. you my get my WOTY vote next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Who said theres no antecedent cold air? It's 25 here with temps to the beaches in the 20s. Set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Bang bang. Pow pow. Good start to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 those meso models are the ones that scare me. they are a whole different story from the globals. I know you are a stoic guy, level headed, conservative. My question is, was your Christmas Red Sox nighty robe able to contain that pants tent after seeing the ARW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This is the type of system that meso models score a coup on...very potent vortmax and fariyl compact system. We saw the meso models take the globals to the woodshed in 1/12/11. I just wish the NAM was more reliable recently. yeah - that's been in the back of my mind. the last 2 runs of the NAM have been basically a 9-14" plastering out here. some of those other crazy nmm runs have been similar. but i despise the NAM and all of the models run off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 it looks further NW for sure @ 18hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Who said theres no antecedent cold air? It's 25 here with temps to the beaches in the 20s. Set it's almost January. that's barely average. that's what i said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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