Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,583
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

12/30 Coastal Part II - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

Recommended Posts

It will obviously only come so far nw...it's honestly outdone what I originally thought it'd do for nw trending.

I honestly think it can maybe end up 10-25 miles more nw which would have an impact on sensible wx from HVN-IJD-ORH

If that did happen you're right, one tick could equate to 10-25 miles. I'll believe it when I see it lol. I gotta run though, good disco ctsnowstorm. I'll be on later tonight most likely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Anyone care to make a nowcast / verification check on H5 of the 12z/18z models... can we predict based on current mesoanalysis where 0z suite will trend before it comes out?

Correct me if I'm wrong:

On 23z RAP at 1 hr vs. 18z NAM/GFS at same period: I'm seeing significantly more vorticity and maximum centered a good 50+ miles more east at the Missouri-Arkansas border... if true and incorporated into 0z suite, we could see a further trend NW due to earlier capture.

RAP:

NAM:

GFS:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone care to make a nowcast / verification check on H5 of the 12z/18z models... can we predict based on current mesoanalysis where 0z suite will trend before it comes out?

Correct me if I'm wrong:

On 23z RAP at 1 hr vs. 18z NAM/GFS at same period: I'm seeing significantly more vorticity and maximum centered a good 50+ miles more east at the Missouri... if true and incorporated into 0z suite, we could see a further trend NW due to earlier capture.

I'm on the cell but that's what I was alluding to in previous posts. If someone can confirm that'd be sweet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone care to make a nowcast / verification check on H5 of the 12z/18z models... can we predict based on current mesoanalysis where 0z suite will trend before it comes out?

Correct me if I'm wrong:

On 23z RAP at 1 hr vs. 18z NAM/GFS at same period: I'm seeing significantly more vorticity and maximum centered a good 50+ miles more east at the Missouri-Arkansas border... if true and incorporated into 0z suite, we could see a further trend NW due to earlier capture.

RAP:

NAM:

GFS:

Messenger enroute to SR, substitute in. Lol. Yea that would be true . The vorticity has always impressed me and I think that's what Noyes keyed well either that or the -8 isotherm, lol. What's all this talk about this air mass not being that cold?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow..some Emotion !!!..Are you drinking tonight?

No. But it is funny how SW CT slant sticks.. I know of one such person in this area that submits multiple reports to OKX under multiple towns across the border with inflated totals. At least now OKX is aware and filters that stuff out or tries to anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Messenger enroute to SR, substitute in. Lol. Yea that would be true . The vorticity has always impressed me and I think that's what Noyes keyed well either that or the -8 isotherm, lol. What's all this talk about this air mass not being that cold?

I was worried about the gfs ML and BL but I think it may just be the GFS doing its own thing. The meteorology says we snow to the coast with a backing northerly flow as the low gets cranking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm on the cell but that's what I was alluding to in previous posts. If someone can confirm that'd be sweet

I wish these types of thoughts were discussed more at this time frame. I think these things are what some mets going more bullish maybe looking at, but this hasn't been confirmed to be significant or accurate so I dunno.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Messenger enroute to SR, substitute in. Lol. Yea that would be true . The vorticity has always impressed me and I think that's what Noyes keyed well either that or the -8 isotherm, lol. What's all this talk about this air mass not being that cold?

Thanks Ginx.

Seems significant, we'll see how it plays out. Always nice to add a little more meteorology / forecasting / analysis to all the model-humping... trying to predict trends before the 0z spits out the answer. I (and Fella / Zeus / Coastal) want a piece of that commahead... it's been 2 years.

(and I'm flattered... I'll be back on the bench when Saki is back online)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am staying on course for now 4-6 for me and Geriatric Gerry. Never ever like being in the jackpot calls, just a personal thing, you guys are correct in that zone but I would pick the most famous accordion player of them alls house as Jackpot.

Sounds like you and me are in a decent spot for this one. I need to get back that 1/4" that you have on me right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...