ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So if 0.75" at 10:1 is still 7-8". I'm just curious to your rationale. No disrespect I'm just trying to get different thoughts. No guidance except the RGEM or RPM gives Foxoborough that much...they are closer to 0.50"...they sit on I-95. The 0.75 totals are down near Dighton and Carver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Do you think dynamics will be lacking? What's running through your mind? I'm curious from a learning prospective. Dynamics is there but it's not one of those systems that'll crank 9" given the qpf amounts and vort placement, which is further southwest. What makes you think that'll happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i am not expecting more than 2-3" up my way in NH. anything more is gravy, but i doubt that happens. WHDH has me near the northern edge of 1-2", WMUR has me in the middle of a 2-4" range. whatever I get will be a nice little addition to the 7" I got yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On satellite that s/w is pretty consolidated. Wouldn't shock me to see another slight tick nw. I think 8-10" weenie amounts around nw ri into foxborough/Easton are possible. Not probable but very possible. Yeah I just think it will depend on how far NW that comma head gets. If It moves a bit more NW than it's possible for sure. Otherwise as is, I don't see that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Still really confused as to where these 12" amounts are coming from - is it really the RPM that's driving this rationale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 QPF should equate close to the 10:1 ratio given the thickness levels being around 5230 m, correct me if I am wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12z GGEM...i didn't realize it was this solid of a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Still really confused as to where these 12" amounts are coming from - is it really the RPM that's driving this rationale? I suppose if you think the NW trend is not done yet, then that is defensible. But certianly verbatim the only models that come close to that type of snow are the RGEM and RPM. I think we could bump NW a small tick still, but not sure enough to warrant widespread 10" amounts. Always have to watch for one weenie band that does it ala 2/7/03. That event prob had better frontogensis though than this one given the colder airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Dynamics is there but it's not one of those systems that'll crank 9" given the qpf amounts and vort placement, which is further southwest. What makes you think that'll happen? Personally, I think 8-9" is on the higher end of things right now, but that s/w is really looking decent compared to modeling. I think this thing has a potential to come in slightly sharper even still. I think there'll be widespread 5-7" totals, but with 8-9" embedded amounts from Woonsocket eastward. I'm just tossing around ideas, but I do think it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Still really confused as to where these 12" amounts are coming from - is it really the RPM that's driving this rationale? 12" is a bit much for anyone I think the Max anyone reports will be around.7-8" if there is a Weenies band somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Yeah I just think it will depend on how far NW that comma head gets. If It moves a bit more NW than it's possible for sure. Otherwise as is, I don't see that for now. That comma head better not move NW, I don't mind snow but 9", no thanks. You can disperse anything above 5" evenly to those who want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Harv has 3-6 from andover ese to salem ma. And 5-7 for e ct int ri and int se mass, and says he may need to tweak upward. Just saw quickly so don't hold me over the coals if it was not exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 12" is a bit much for anyone I think the Max anyone reports will be around.7-8" if there is a Weenies band somewhere Agree. 8" absolute max. I think a lot of this is just hype and high hopes as well, regardless of what the models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I suppose if you think the NW trend is not done yet, then that is defensible. But certianly verbatim the only models that come close to that type of snow are the RGEM and RPM. I think we could bump NW a small tick still, but not sure enough to warrant widespread 10" amounts. Always have to watch for one weenie band that does it ala 2/7/03. That event prob had better frontogensis though than this one given the colder airmass. No one on here has called for widespread 10" amounts I don't think...correct me if I'm off on that. But I agree the RPM and RGEM are over juiced. Like I have said, small nw ticks are plausible given the h5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That comma head better not move NW, I don't mind snow but 9", no thanks. You can disperse anything above 5" evenly to those who want it. At least it wont be the 8.5" of cement I had to move yesterday. Great base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Harv has 3-6 from andover ese to salem ma. And 5-7 for e ct int ri and int se mass, and says he may need to tweak upward. Just saw quickly so don't hold me over the coals if it was not exact I'll buy shares in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At least it wont be the 8.5" of cement I had to move yesterday. Great base Yeah it's gonna be a nice quality snow that doesn't break backs. The Cape might get that slushy crap once the rain falls and whatever snow falls with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 No one on here has called for widespread 10" amounts I don't think...correct me if I'm off on that. But I agree the RPM and RGEM are over juiced. Like I have said, small nw ticks are plausible given the h5 setup. Blizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Blizz? I heard 4-8" from him. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 No one on here has called for widespread 10" amounts I don't think...correct me if I'm off on that. But I agree the RPM and RGEM are over juiced. Like I have said, small nw ticks are plausible given the h5 setup. I think movement NW will be hard esp with the potent vort max/strong winds to the SE. Correct me if I'm wrong on that I'm just glimpsing over things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That comma head better not move NW, I don't mind snow but 9", no thanks. You can disperse anything above 5" evenly to those who want it. You'll learn to like snow whether you like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Screw y'all. I'm hitting double digits. TAN will be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 4.5? I forget to be honest. 5.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think movement NW will be hard esp with the potent vort max/strong winds to the SE. Correct me if I'm wrong on that I'm just glimpsing over things. It will obviously only come so far nw...it's honestly outdone what I originally thought it'd do for nw trending. I honestly think it can maybe end up 10-25 miles more nw which would have an impact on sensible wx from HVN-IJD-ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Screw y'all. I'm hitting double digits. TAN will be ground zero. I will TOAST you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Screw y'all. I'm hitting double digits. TAN will be ground zero. Hey mister 2-4" just kidding But honestly you're in a great spot. Currently have you at 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The 00z RPM is running now...I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The 00z RPM is running now...I'm excited. LOL. 25-30" incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I dunno...he got hit hard postiviely on 1/21/11...that little sneaky late bloomer. He picked up like 9". I feel like people remember the sour busts more vividly so it creates a selective memory phenomenon. Last winter was garbage outside of 10/29/11 and we've only had one real event thus far this year. (November was never really a big threat to NE MA). That said, I only pointed out one scenario...I wouldn't forecast any larger amounts for Ray right now. Just saying if the CCB wraps up a bit earlier, then you will see it hook left more and they would be in play for large amounts. Too early to forecast anything like that though. I think NWS BOX map at the moment is reasonable. What about the infamous retro storm of 10 when he melted down about how retro storms sucked, one foot later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Will has a point. People tend to remember the sour taste from busts or missing out on a deformation band, but I will kindly remind Ray how Dendrite got violently porked yesterday and on the 1/2/10-1/3/10 storm where Dendrite was choking flakes from the sky thanks to north wind downslope. Heck even I forgot that Jan '10 fail. But yeah, we all win some and lose some. Ray likes to hate on my couple of jackpots, but before that I don't remember ever jackpotting in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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