N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I was saying he has a string of bad luck. If you have to go back to 09 to see him on the positive side of a bust relative to others, that's all nbd. I hope scott can pull a good number out. I remember his area can do pretty well in marginal events like 12/26/10. He was in nice weenie spot for that one, while I flipped to rain in bridgewater/raynham line on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The isotherm rule is an archaic technique that was used when we had NGM maps with no cross sections or soundings. I remember reading something about that, although I thougt it was n & w of the 850 5C or something like that. Although we have fancy stuff to look at now, the basics like H5 and H7 orientation still apply and I don't think they get enough attention by some like they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If you want a laugh check out the 21z rpm. Some nice emails about that between myself, Ben, and Dan lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I was saying he has a string of bad luck. If you have to go back to 09 to see him on the positive side of a bust relative to others, that's all nbd. I hope scott can pull a good number out. I remember his area can do pretty well in marginal events like 12/26/10. He was in nice weenie spot for that one, while I flipped to rain in bridgewater/raynham line on that one. I dunno...he got hit hard postiviely on 1/21/11...that little sneaky late bloomer. He picked up like 9". I feel like people remember the sour busts more vividly so it creates a selective memory phenomenon. Last winter was garbage outside of 10/29/11 and we've only had one real event thus far this year. (November was never really a big threat to NE MA). That said, I only pointed out one scenario...I wouldn't forecast any larger amounts for Ray right now. Just saying if the CCB wraps up a bit earlier, then you will see it hook left more and they would be in play for large amounts. Too early to forecast anything like that though. I think NWS BOX map at the moment is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If you want a laugh check out the 21z rpm. Seems reasonable to me. What area are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I heard Burbank said 10. Knee slapper. I think we'll see some spot double digit amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 is this 21z? No. The 21Z run of the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 is this 21z? No, it shows about 15" for BOS...it was a ridiculous weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 storm tracker Dr. Greg Postel on TWC mentioned the need to be wary of potential for 12+ amounts in SE Mass Will Blizz be upset by wary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 is this 21z? No thats 18z. 21z is more like 10-12" for all east of ORH with some weenie 12+ pockets in interior se mass. Quite the weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 No thats 18z. 21z is more like 10-12" for all east of ORH with some weenie 12+ pockets in interior se mass. ya, i figured b/c the updated RPM i just saw on NECN looked sweet for ORH east ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Seems reasonable to me. What area are you looking at? You really think max amounts will be 4-5"? You don't think there will be a weenie 9-10" in nw ri or near like foxborough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Who is Greg pastel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 What Ry are you talking the 12km? I see what you're talking about there. 4km downplays it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Who is Greg pastel? their new "Paul Kocin" role...except this guy does tropics, as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You really think max amounts will be 4-5"? You don't think there will be a weenie 9-10" in nw ri or near like foxborough? No way dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 their new "Paul Kocin" role...except this guy does tropics, as well Economy is tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I live near Foxboro. That means if they get it then so am I and I did not tell people that. If that happens I may resign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Seems box map doesn't think much taint will occur over e mass coastal plain, esp n of boston. Just something that was encouraging to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Will has a point. People tend to remember the sour taste from busts or missing out on a deformation band, but I will kindly remind Ray how Dendrite got violently porked yesterday and on the 1/2/10-1/3/10 storm where Dendrite was choking flakes from the sky thanks to north wind downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I live near Foxboro. That means if they get it then so am I and I did not tell people that. If that happens I may resign. Do you think dynamics will be lacking? What's running through your mind? I'm curious from a learning prospective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Will has a point. People tend to remember the sour taste from busts or missing out on a deformation band, but I will kindly remind Ray how Dendrite got violently porked yesterday and on the 1/2/10-1/3/10 storm where Dendrite was choking flakes from the sky thanks to north wind downslope. OT, but what was dendrite's total for 12/26-27? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I remember reading something about that, although I thougt it was n & w of the 850 5C or something like that. Although we have fancy stuff to look at now, the basics like H5 and H7 orientation still apply and I don't think they get enough attention by some like they should. I am a throwback to the older generation of wx forecasters. There is a method to my madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 OT, but what was dendrite's total for 12/26-27? 4.5? I forget to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So most guidace spitting out 0.75" qpf and having decent fronto forcing were that band sets up, will not warrant any higher totals? How come? NW RI may get more than Foxboro but not 9" imo. 0.75 qpf will not amount to 9" in foxboro, regardless of the frontal forcing they get. I just don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I am a throwback to the older generation of wx forecasters. There is a method to my madness A throwback to older 40+ weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 A throwback to older 40+ weenies. Well I don't have a Tandy like Dandy Andy in the wood paneled den. I'm i everything ...iphone,imac,ipad,iweenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NW RI may get more than Foxboro but not 9" imo. 0.75 qpf will not amount to 9" in foxboro, regardless of the frontal forcing they get. I just don't see it happening. So if 0.75" at 10:1 is still 7-8". I'm just curious to your rationale. No disrespect I'm just trying to get different thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If that band can get into interior se ma, I could see some high totals near Foxboro but I think you would need to see another NW tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If that band can get into interior se ma, I could see some high totals near Foxboro but I think you would need to see another NW tick. On satellite that s/w is pretty consolidated. Wouldn't shock me to see another slight tick nw. I think 8-10" weenie amounts around nw ri into foxborough/Easton are possible. Not probable but very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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