Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:08 AM, CT Blizz said: Yes...Old trick I use..the -8c isotherm Have you looked where that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Wouldn't rule out Worcester seeing some higher amounts with a nice little area of vort sitting over them/SE CT/RI at 6Z. From forecasts I've seen most seem to have KORH between 2-5. Maybe they'll see the upper end of that and we may end up with 3-4 for more eastern areas (in MA). Other mets thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:13 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: Have you looked where that is? Yes. Why so angry tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:09 AM, CT Blizz said: Well I don't think you need to wait for the 00z runs..Nothing much is going to change There might be some slight changes in regards to QPF placements but once that 00Z run is in I am not expecting much of a change for 12Z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:08 AM, CT Blizz said: Yes...Old trick I use..the -8c isotherm Agreed. The -8C isotherm is up here during this storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:17 AM, powderfreak said: Agreed. The -8C isotherm is up here during this storm, lol. Which is why we're seeing accumulating snow as far north as we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:16 AM, It said: There might be some slight changes in regards to QPF placements but once that 00Z run is in I am not expecting much of a change for 12Z imo. BOX has ORH in the watch and forecasting 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:17 AM, CT Blizz said: Which is why we're seeing accumulating snow as far north as we are This isothem thing sounds like malarky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:20 AM, weatherMA said: BOX has ORH in the watch and forecasting 4-7". I think 7 is high balling it, see my previous post that area of vort over ORH could give them the upper limit of that but I'm not seeing 7 there. If they get 7 then SE CT/RI are getting slammed, and if that doesn't happen then it's a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:17 AM, CT Blizz said: Which is why we're seeing accumulating snow as far north as we are You're band has already formed on the northern end of the storm. That should lift up and through upstate NY and NNE/CNE. Models have been showing a nose of higher QPF from the southern Adirondacks into central VT. Watch that be the jackpot of the whole storm while I smoke subsidence just to the north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Seems like 9 out of 10 times people have referred to rays area being included in a plausible scenario for a positive bust, it has not happened. Just an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:20 AM, weatherMA said: BOX has ORH in the watch and forecasting 4-7". ORH is right on the line to me for something bigger like 6" versus 3". Sometimes we'll pull off a NW band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:21 AM, sbos_wx said: This isothem thing sounds like malarky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:21 AM, sbos_wx said: This isothem thing sounds like malarky It's not. You always look for that as a secondary axis of higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:15 AM, CT Blizz said: Yes. Why so angry tonight? Not angry. Just looking for people to raise the bar. Better posting makes this a better place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:27 AM, CT Blizz said: It's not. You always look for that as a secondary axis of higher amounts Old JB trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:24 AM, cpick79 said: Seems like 9 out of 10 times people have referred to rays area being included in a plausible scenario for a positive bust, it has not happened. Just an observation Disagree...didn't happen last storm, but his area often can get a positive bust because of both latitude and CF enhancement. I think we really only thought maybe last storm and 10/29/11....both were duds there, but I'm not seeing a 90% bust rate on that. Just go back to all those SWFEs from 2007-2009. Hell even 12/20/09 he b**ched and moaned his way into 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:27 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: Old JB trick Why yes..yes it is. It's precisely why it gets so annoying when folks worry about lower modelled qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 GEFS still has a spread of 0.25 for jackpot areas. That spread will make/break some forecasts and make/break weenie's moods depending on how it actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Kevin you mean at 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:04 AM, CT Blizz said: Don't forget..these things always have those weenie bands farther NW than any models have them along the -8c isotherm. We see that everytime. I can think of countless times when MPM was worried about qpf and he ended up with 6 inches more than anyone else I agree with this except not sure about the -8c stuff...in these setups, there seems to be that heavier band that sets up on the NW flank of the snowshield...where that band pivots (comes in, stalls, and then moves back east) seems to be a secondary JP; seems that this typically happens over the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:29 AM, CoastalWx said: Kevin you mean at 850? Well where did you think I meant? in the BL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Fortunately we have maps showing lift and frontogenesis instead of finding the 8C isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:20 AM, weatherMA said: BOX has ORH in the watch and forecasting 4-7". I was out all day and just started through this... BOX is bullish even up here. I still think 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:29 AM, CT Blizz said: Well where did you think I meant? in the BL? BL, 850, 700.....wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:30 AM, CoastalWx said: Fortunately we have maps showing lift and frontogenesis instead of finding the 8C isotherm. The isotherm rule is an archaic technique that was used when we had NGM maps with no cross sections or soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:30 AM, HubbDave said: I was out all day and just started through this... BOX is bullish even up here. I still think 2" Better to keep your hopes down then up I guess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 storm tracker Dr. Greg Postel on TWC mentioned the need to be wary of potential for 12+ amounts in SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:32 AM, Boston-winter08 said: storm tracker Dr. Greg Postel on TWC mentioned the need to be wary of potential for 12+ amounts in SE Mass I heard Burbank said 10. Knee slapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 On 12/29/2012 at 12:31 AM, CoastalWx said: BL, 850, 700.....wasn't sure. If you want a laugh check out the 21z rpm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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