NaoPos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Remember when we used to get 12"+ on the reg!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 shout outs to Mitchell Gaines and Walt Drag at NWS Mt.Holly today getting the snowfall amounts posted on the PNS (apologies if I am leaving others out) they have been up to date all day long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 A couple of nearby farms Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Some great pics in this thread. Thanks to everyone who posted them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 They busted horribly for central and south jersey. I was forecasted for 2-4 I mercer and saw less than a half inch, Just about everyone busted for those areas though. It was a tough one, I pulled back there late last night and I know MGorse was not at all confident about the 2-4 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vogelhund Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It was a tough one, I pulled back there late last night and I know MGorse was not at all confident about the 2-4 either. this was a good forcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 this was a good forcast. He nailed that forecast. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 this was a good forcast. A lot of forecasts were good in S NJ, and NW of I-95. Right along I-95 were the busts. That forecast shows my parents in Ewing as in the 2-4 band (admittedly closer to the 2 than the 4). They had 1. I think most of Monmouth and northern Burlington had less than an inch. The warm air push had a more north/south orientation and made it right into metro NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Glenn did a great job, as did the NWS. Good show, good show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vogelhund Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Glenn did a great job, as did the NWS. Good show, good show! ++1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 A lot of forecasts were good in S NJ, and NW of I-95. Right along I-95 were the busts. That forecast shows my parents in Ewing as in the 2-4 band (admittedly closer to the 2 than the 4). They had 1. I think most of Monmouth and northern Burlington had less than an inch. The warm air push had a more north/south orientation and made it right into metro NYC. Calling for 2" and getting 1" isn't a bust. If I was at your parents location and saw that map, I'd think 2" (not the higher end of the range). That's pretty much common sense. On the fringe of one range, expect the lower or higher end of the other range next to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Mt Holly did good despite the rain event we had in the coastal counties. You just never know here. Unfortunately our QPF was low, .25 IMBY. If we had a little forcing the 1 or 2" would have verified as well. To those who received accum, enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Calling for 2" and getting 1" isn't a bust. If I was at your parents location and saw that map, I'd think 2" (not the higher end of the range). That's pretty much common sense. On the fringe of one range, expect the lower or higher end of the other range next to it. Looking at that map I'd think 2-3" for my parents. I think that's what normal people would see. In any case, I wasn't the one who first called it a bust. Blizzard-on-GFS was. I think he got less than an inch in south-central Mercer. Just sayin' Overall the forecasts were good, for the majority of people they worked out. But there's always a bust somewhere. I know the people demand more accuracy, but I hate giving an inch range in any forecast (i.e., 1-2). Bust potential is enormous if its located on a gradient. I know Adam has said he doesn't want any criticism of local mets but I don't think that's a great idea. Constructive criticism should be encouraged. BASHING (such as saying someone was asleep at the switch, etc) should be banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looking at that map I'd think 2-3" for my parents. I think that's what normal people would see. So, I'm not normal? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 So, I'm not normal? lol. I know where you used to work. No one who worked there is normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looking at that map I'd think 2-3" for my parents. I think that's what normal people would see. In any case, I wasn't the one who first called it a bust. Blizzard-on-GFS was. I think he got less than an inch in south-central Mercer. Just sayin' Overall the forecasts were good, for the majority of people they worked out. But there's always a bust somewhere. I know the people demand more accuracy, but I hate giving an inch range in any forecast (i.e., 1-2). Bust potential is enormous if its located on a gradient. I know Adam has said he doesn't want any criticism of local mets but I don't think that's a great idea. Constructive criticism should be encouraged. BASHING (such as saying someone was asleep at the switch, etc) should be banned. Here was a map I posted on another message board before 00z data last night. I was anticipating the coastal to keep temp. profiles colder across central Jersey/NYC Metro. Didn't happen and my numbers busted too high. Elsewhere, things played out pretty well....although a little low on totals in the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I know where you used to work. No one who worked there is normal Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Here was a map I posted on another message board before 00z data last night. I was anticipating the coastal to keep temp. profiles colder across central Jersey/NYC Metro. Didn't happen and my numbers busted too high. Elsewhere, things played out pretty well....although a little low on totals in the Lehigh Valley. I like that map background, where'd ya get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I like that map background, where'd ya get it? Not sure, here it is though for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 By the way, mini-flizzard in progress has put down a fresh dusting. Moon was shining an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Forget 1", no one in Monmouth had any accumulation. I'm 10-12 miles inland and I had zippo. So yes, Monmouth County was probably the county with the biggest or one of the biggest busts in NJ. Not singling anyone out, most folks thought at least 2", and I thought we were going to get 2-4" as well. But the 925mb low didn't give up in PA and winds at that level remained southeasterly for too long, tainting our boundary layer. There are busts in some areas with every storm as was stated, but of course that doesn't lessen the disappointment if you happen to live in one of those busted areas. Learn from the mistakes and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 There are busts in some areas with every storm as was stated, but of course that doesn't lessen the disappointment if you happen to live in one of those busted areas. Learn from the mistakes and move on. Yes, no reason to dwell on them, but no reason to cover them up either. It happens. I still cringe at my forecast for Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looking at the maps, I think the gradient is almost always tilted a little bit more NE-SW in these situations instead of more N-S as a lot of those maps showed. And it is generally tilted away from the urban areas of NYC seeing decent snowfalls out of minor events occurring at daytime with temps right around freezing. Urban heat island plus the proximity of the ocean ensures that in smaller events during the daytime, much less accumulates right in NYC, especially near the water like JFK/LGA, than in the surrounding suburbs. For example, I measured 3.25" in Dobbs Ferry at 350', a northern suburb of NYC. I drove down to the southeast Bronx to visit a friend tonight, and it looked as though only an inch had fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Forget 1", no one in Monmouth had any accumulation. I'm 10-12 miles inland and I had zippo. So yes, Monmouth County was probably the county with the biggest or one of the biggest busts in NJ. Not singling anyone out, most folks thought at least 2", and I thought we were going to get 2-4" as well. But the 925mb low didn't give up in PA and winds at that level remained southeasterly for too long, tainting our boundary layer. There are busts in some areas with every storm as was stated, but of course that doesn't lessen the disappointment if you happen to live in one of those busted areas. Learn from the mistakes and move on. Over the years, I've learned when an H925 warm nose threatens Monmouth, it almost always results in a forecast snow bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yeah i only have a slushy dusting on some areas of my lawn right now but thats about it for monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That beats my frozen rain drops on the grill out back. Seems like jackpoting in Nov has its price. After all, we're not exactly Mt. Earthlight down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Had 6" just north of the Lehigh valley. Blowing and drifting like crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 3.9" total here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looking at that map I'd think 2-3" for my parents. I think that's what normal people would see. In any case, I wasn't the one who first called it a bust. Blizzard-on-GFS was. I think he got less than an inch in south-central Mercer. Just sayin' Overall the forecasts were good, for the majority of people they worked out. But there's always a bust somewhere. I know the people demand more accuracy, but I hate giving an inch range in any forecast (i.e., 1-2). Bust potential is enormous if its located on a gradient. I know Adam has said he doesn't want any criticism of local mets but I don't think that's a great idea. Constructive criticism should be encouraged. BASHING (such as saying someone was asleep at the switch, etc) should be banned. Couldn't agree with you more....of course none of us non-mets EVerrrrrr receives any criticism at our day jobs..do we!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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