January 2013 Forecast Contest, Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

Through the 28th based on the NWS I get BOS +1.5. Possibly more like +1.0 given the NWS may be conservative. From there it depends whether the cutter the GFS shows happens, or whether the cooler Euro look is right. WIth the cutter, which I think is more likely, they would pop back up to +2.5ish.

 

NYC: +1.8, would also go to 2.5 or 3 with a cutter the 29-31st

 

DCA: +1.8, would also go to 2.5ish with a cutter

 

So if I had to guess right now I'd go around +2 in all 3. Whether it is +.5, or +2.5 will depend on whether the month ends with a cutter.

[Roger Smith]

Sounds about right to me. This cold spell has basically given the field about twice as many scoring points and taken the adjusted scoring option described earlier off the table unless perhaps ATL squeezes out a +5.1 or higher.

 

I am renewing my pledge to provide on-time scoring and unless somebody else wants to handle contest announcement duties, I will make a habit of announcing each monthly contest on the 26th of each month unless it's a March contest then on the 24th of Feb. These dates will be moved forward if they are weekends to give people lots of notice, but if you're going to be a contest regular, you will probably come in to look for the thread and I hope a moderator reading this will routinely pin these contest threads while they are active.

 

Just a brief review of how I would score the forecasts, when the actuals are within 5.0 deg of normal, scores are 100 minus late penalty minus 2 pts for each 0.1 error.

 

Example, actual 3.4, your forecast 2.2, your late penalty 7 ... score 93 - (12 x 2) = 93-24 = 69.

 

When the actual is 5.1 ot more deg above or below normal, an adjustment takes place as described in post 48 (Jan 4th) above. That adjustment basically stretches the scoring zone by having 1-pt gradations at the zero anomaly and actual value ends of the scoring range, those extending as far as required to allow the mid-range of forecasts to score normally (2-pt differential). Those ranges would be mirrored on the "far side" of the large anomaly if any forecaster landed in that zone (hockeyinc, this is for you).

 

 An example for a +7.0 actual would be 1-20 points for 0.1 to 2.0, then 22 to 80 points for 2.1 to 5.0 and 81 to 100 for 5.1 to 7.0 and also 99 to 80 for 7.1 to 9.0, after which, 79 to 20 for 9.1 to 12.0 and 19 to 1 point for 12.1 to 13.9.

 

Score challenges can be made at any time until the annual scoring table is complete, the source of your challenge will be the posted table of entries. That can also be challenged until the 5th of each month based on observed differences between the table and the post made by you -- after the 5th and my proposed careful double-check, the assumption in play would be that differences were due to cheating (whether fair or not, we need this table certainty because this forum allows limitless editing of posts). It goes without saying that I do not assume anyone would cheat, but ya never know. This way, there is no inducement to cheat, instead, an inducement to check my table of entries. You can help by submitting entries in the contest order. As I tend to block copy your posts and then reformat into a table, the only source of error in that procedure would be a different order of stations or my misunderstanding of what you were typing in a few marginal cases, please note there is a standard way to format an anomaly, always use the zero integer value (example, use + 0.9 and not either of these ... +.9 or .9) and always use a decimal (example use --2.0 and not -2). I attempt to reformat the entries to this standard but with decimals and minus signs appearing so small in the type size used by most, errors would be understandable. I find the minus sign very small and it is a good idea to hit the "minus" key twice (try it). You get this -- instead of that - .

 

A perfectly formatted contest entry would look like this (saving me reformatting work)

 

+2.0 ... --0.1 ... +0.3 ... ... +4.5 ... --0.7 ... 0.0

 

a bad one would be

 

BOS .3

NYC -.1

DCA 2

 

ORD +4. 5

IAH 0

ATL -.7

 

Can you spot all the reasons why?

 

If you have the right order of stations from left to right or top to bottom, you don't need to enter the sites (as those are routinely edited out of your copy). You do not need to place a degree or an F symbol (more waste of time).

 

This table will provide handy reference if you're checking your scores in future months and I will copy this to each contest announcement. The scores for most cases between -5.0 and +5.0 actuals will be easier to verify from just a quick mental calculation.

 

ADJUSTED SCORING TABLE

_______________________________

 

examples are positive but same applies to large negative anomalies

 

Actual ............. A  (1-pt) ...... B zone (2 pt diff) ..... C zone (1-pt) ..... D zone (2-pt diff) ... E zone (1-pt)

___________________________________________________________________________________________

 

5.5 ...................0.1 .. 0.5 ......... 0.6 ... 5.0 .......... 5.1 .. .. 6.0 ....... 6.1 .. 10.5 ........... 10.6 ... 11.0

 

5.8 ..................0.1 .. 0.8 ..........0.9 ... 5.0 ............5.1 .. .. 6.6 ....... 6.7 .. 10.8 ............ 10.9 ... 11.6

 

6.0 ..................0.1 .. 1.0 ......... 1.1 ... 5.0 ........... 5.1 .. .. 7.0 ........ 7.1 .. 11.0 ........... 11.1 ... 12.0

 

6.5 ..................0.1 .. 1.5 ......... 1.6 .. 5.0 ........... 5.1 .. .. 8.0 ......... 8.1 .. 11.5 ........... 11.6 ... 13.0

 

7.0 ..................0.1 .. 2.0 .......... 2.1 .. 5.0 ........... 5.1 .. .. 9.0 ..........9.1 .. 12.0 ........... 12.1 ... 14.0

 

8.0 .................0.1 .. 3.0 ........... 3.1 .. 5.0 ........... 5.1 .. 11.0 .........11.1 .. 13.0 ........... 13.1 ... 16.0

 

9.0 .................0.1 .. 4.0 ........... 4.1 .. 5.0 ............ 5.1 .. 13.0 .........13.1 .. 14.0 ....... ... 14.1 ... 18.0

 

10.0 .............. 0.1 ... 20.0 (all 1-pt)

 

11.0 ............. 1.1 ... 21.0 (all 1-pt)

 

etc

 

As the A, B and C zones are likely to be the only ones actually involved in scoring, notice that until you reach >10, the A zone extends from 0.1 to (Actual minus 5.0), and the C zone is the same size extending the same amount as the A zone on each side of normal. The C zone always begins at 5.1. What's left is a 2-pt scoring zone. That makes it easy to calculate values for intermediate cases such as +7.4 which you can see would involve an A zone of 0.1 to 2.4, a C zone of 5.1 to 9.8. What's left over is all in the 2-pt B/D zones except to get the outer 1-pt zone you then double the actual value and subtract the A value (in this example, double is 14.8 and the E zone then starts at 12.4).

 

This may be TMI but I wanted to make it available for people if they raised questions about scoring in extreme cases.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

bump?

[Roger Smith]

A February contest thread is open and pinned.

 

Meanwhile, here's where we stand (more or less) after quite a few cold days and before the big warmup except for Houston which got into it big-time on the 28th ...

 

DCA ... +2.8 (predict end of month +3.7)

 

NYC ... +1.6 (predict end of month +2.5)

 

BOS ... +1.8 with a missing very cold day so with that likely to be updated and BOS only having one day into the warm, +1.8 end

 

ORD ... +2.1 going for about +3.5 as 31st pulls off midnight high

 

ATL ... +6.4 edging back up towards +7.0 and making you very thankful for my mercy rule scoring

 

IAH ... +2.3 shooting for about +3.2 most of which happens today

 

Mallow and Derek Z appear to be leading the pack if these numbers verify.

 

I will score this puppy so fast that Congress may be recalled.

[Roger Smith]

Congrats to Mallow and Midlosnowmaker for leading the overall contest standings, and to H2OTown_Wx for leading the "classic" portion while Derek Z leads the "expanded" section (our three new stations).

Please report any scoring questions to me by PM if you prefer, the ATL scores are based on the adjusted high-anomaly rule and the scoring intervals are 0.1 to 1.6 for one point, 1.7 to 5.0 for two additional points per 0.1 and then one more point if anyone was 5.1 to 6.6, which nobody was. I think our three new stations were a lot warmer than almost everyone guessed. Quite a few contestants had a good run at the three eastern stations.

 

JANUARY CONTEST -- SCORES

________________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________

 

Forecaster (penalty) ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score
________________________________________________________________________________

.... Actual values ............... +4.3 .. +2.5 .. +2.5 ... . ... +2.8 .. +6.6 .. +2.4 .... .... ... ... ... ... best score (stn)

01 MALLOW .........................78 ... 96 ... 94 ..... 268 .... .... 80 ... 56 ... 48 ..... 184 ...... 452
02 MIDLO SNOW MAKER ...... 92 ... 74 ... 98 ..... 264 .... .... 64 ... 54 ... 66 ..... 184 ...... 448 ...... BOS
03 RODNEY S .......................78 ... 88 ... 86 ..... 252 .... .... 90 ... 42 .... 52 ..... 184 ...... 436 ...... ORD
04 H2OTOWN_WX ............... 80 ... 96 ... 98 ..... 274 .... .... 74 ... 11 ... 40 ..... 125 ...... 399 ...... BOS
05 BLAZESS556 ................... 62 ... 94 ... 82 ..... 238 .... .... 70 ... 22 ... 58 ..... 150 ...... 388

06 DEREK Z .......................... 80 ... 52 ... 58 ..... 190 .... .... 40 ... 70 ... 82 ..... 192 ...... 382 ...... ATL
07 INUDAW .......................... 64 ... 88 ... 94 ..... 246 .... .... 70 ... 09 ... 56 ..... 135 ...... 381

08 CHICAGO_WX .................. 38 ... 70 ... 74 ..... 182 .... .... 68 ... 13 ... 72 ..... 153 ...... 335
09 MN TRANSPLANT ............. 40 ... 74 ... 74 ..... 188 .... .... 62 ... 15 ... 68 ..... 145 ...... 333
10 STEBO ............................. 48 ... 86 ... 70 ..... 204 .... .... 60 ... 22 ... 44 ..... 126 ...... 330
10 HOCKEYINC ..................... 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170. .... .... 88 ... 44 ... 28 ..... 160 ...... 330

12 UNCLE W ......................... 44 ... 78 ... 76 ..... 198 .... .... 60 ... 06 ... 62 ..... 128 ...... 326
13 SD ................................... 40 ... 90 ... 70 ..... 200 .... .... 28 ... 30 ... 64 ..... 122 ....... 322
13 NYCSUBURBS ................... 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 .... .... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ...... 322
15 BKVIKING ........................ 46 ... 74 ... 78 ..... 198 .... .... 22 ... 20 ... 76 ..... 118 ...... 316

16 FRIVOLOUSZ21 ................ 72 .. 100 ... 74 ...... 246 .... .... 18 ... 18 ... 30 ...... 066 ...... 312 ... NYC
16 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS..... 60 ... 78 ... 86 ...... 224 .... .... 00 ... 36 ... 52 ...... 088 ...... 312
18 LITCHFIELDLIBATIONS ..... 46 ... 68 ... 72 ...... 186 .... .... 70 ... 00 ... 44 ...... 114 ...... 300
19 SACRUS ........................... 60 ... 78 ... 62 ...... 200 .... .... 02 ... 24 ... 62 ...... 088 ...... 288
20 ELLINWOOD .................... 44 ... 74 ... 70 ..... 188 .... .... 34 ... 15 ... 40 ...... 089 ...... 277

Consensus ........................... 44 ... 72 ... 70 ..... 186 .... .... 28 ... 11 ..... 52 ..... 091 ...... 277

21 WESTWIND ...................... 44 ... 64 ... 60 ..... 168 .... .... 30 ... 11 ... 58 ...... 099 ...... 267
22 TOM ................................ 24 ... 54 ... 56 ..... 134 .... .... 62 ... 00 ... 46 ..... 108 ...... 242
23 QVECTORMAN ................ 100 ... 60 ... 68 ..... 228 .... .... 00 ... 00 ... 12 ..... 012 ...... 240 ...... DCA
24 SHADES ........................... 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 .... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238
25 WEATHERDUDE................ 30 ... 72 ... 84 ..... 186 .... .... 14 ... 24 ... 00 ..... 038 ...... 224

26 SRAIN ............................. 48 ... 76 ... 60 ..... 184 .... .... 00 ... 20 ... 14 ..... 034 ...... 218

27 SKIERINVERMONT ......... 50 ... 94 ... 90 .... 234 .... .... 04 ... 10 ... 00 .... 014 .. 248

_______ (-12%) ___________ 44 ... 82 ... 79 .... 205 .... .... 03 ... 09 ... 00 .... 012 ...... 217

28 WXDUDE64 ..................... 26 ... 56 ... 50 ..... 132 .... .... 34 ... 00 ... 46 ..... 080 ...... 212


Normal ................................ 14 .... 50 ..... 50 ..... 114 .... ..... 44 ... 00 ... 52 ..... 096 ...... 210


29 TSTEEL ........................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 .... .... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ...... 209
30 WHITEOUTMD ................. 24 ... 30 ... 40 ..... 094 .... .... 26 ... 02 ... 72 ..... 100 ...... 194
31 NZUCKER ........................ 04 ... 26 ... 22 ..... 052 .... .... 62 ... 12 ... 66 ..... 140 ...... 192

32 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA.. 30 ... 28 ... 32 ..... 090 .... .... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 190
33 CTBLIZZ .......................... 00 ... 16 ... 10 ..... 026 .... .... 24 ... 15 ... 88 ..... 127 ....... 153 ...... IAH
34 GOOBAGOOBA ................. 14 ... 44 ... 40 ..... 098 .... .... 20 ... 09 ... 22 ..... 051 ...... 149
35 BRAD1551 ....................... 00 ... 26 ...10 ..... 036 .... .... 14 ... 00 ... 84 ..... 098 ...... 134

36 DONSUTHERLAND1 ......... 04 ... 30 ... 30 ..... 064 .... .... 28 ... 00 ... 40 ..... 068 ....... 132
37 CHICAGO STORM ............. 08 ... 30 ... 30 ..... 078 .... .... 00 ... 00 ... 36 ..... 036 ...... 114
38 ISOTHERM ....................... 00 ... 12 ... 04 ..... 016 .... .... 00 ... 11 ... 82 ..... 093 ...... 109
39 HUDSONVALLEY21 ........... 00 ... 24 ... 20 ..... 044 .... .... 08 ... 02 ... 36 ..... 046 ....... 090
40 ROGER SMITH ................. 00 ... 00 ... 24 ..... 024 .... .... 00 .. . 00 ... 12 ..... 012 ...... 036
41 OKIE333 .......................... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 .... .... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ....... 010

_________________________________________________

 

edited July 17th to show revised penalties

[skierinvermont]

Roger I noticed that my eastern score is 165 but total is 163.. how did I lose two points? I thought scores cannot be negative?

 

 

I think the 165 is the correct #

[Roger Smith]

Good spot, I went through the scores at the end because my provisional for IAH was 0.1 low, and had to take two off everyone, that's where your two points went, sorry about that, I will check the other cases where people already scored zero for IAH to make sure it didn't creep into other scores. Sorry you had to lose points on the late penalty but this month you're on time and some other folks will find out about the draconian regime I am running here (same old same old but with even less mercy) ... I have also had multiple problems with this site and coding issues in my posts, now that I upgraded my computer to IE9 and more memory almost everything is improved except for American Weather for some reason. I suppose the discontinuity had to be compensated somewhere.

[skierinvermont]

no worries, nice work Roger

[The_Global_Warmer]

I bought the ORD hype.

 

 

yikes.

 

I am going with a 2/3rd rule for Dec-Feb now in the Midwest.  And a 4/5th rule for Nov/March.  that months will be warmer than normal.

[Roger Smith]

Fixed up the table as my coding seems to be working again, and provided a new feature, best score at each site (stn = station).

 

Anyone who forgot to enter February can still get in, current late penalty is 37. Add one for every hour that has elapsed since 1305 EST Saturday to update that.

[Chicago WX]

Any chance my entry can be entered into the standings above? Thanks.

[Roger Smith]

Sorry about that, edit now done, your scoreline must have been deleted when I adjusted the IAH scores, I remember it being there originally and the ranks were all okay except for MNT so I'm guessing somehow I managed to erase your whole line and his rank which was actually 9th, you were 8th. Looking around for a table function so this will be less work at the keyboard, but for now I think the situation is under control. Will be transferring all scores to an excel file for easier calculations as we get further into the year.

[Chicago WX]

Thanks again Roger. And thanks for running the contest. 

[Roger Smith]

Glad to be of service, hoping to find a better table format so you don't have to look at all those dots.

 

Meanwhile, as discussed in the Feb contest thread, I have slightly relaxed the late penalty rule to make it a percentage of score reduction and not a score base reduction. I have edited the January score of skierinvermont who picked up 26 points and moved up one spot. To give you some idea of how this worked out, the penalty was 83 points and was reduced to 57 points for what was basically an entry one day late. This should keep the carnage in February somewhat under control (we have five late entries there as my somewhat new regime of first-of-month sets in).

 

Won't be tinkering with the rules after this, so get used to it -- actually I didn't immediately realize how the rule worked last year as I tend to enter on time anyway and never looked into it.