tarheelwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I just wanted to post some thoughts on CAD and yesterday's event. It seems that in most all cases, the models erode the cold air faster that actual. Yesterday was a prime example. While the models predicted the morning low in the upper 30's, they also had GSO getting up to around 50 and a chance of severe storms. When I woke up yesterday, the temp here in Colfax was 39.7. That was the high for the day. It gradually went down to where it was around 37.0 by dusk. No model and no met predicted that. It just goes to show what even weak hp with "stale" cold air can do. Hopefully this was a precursor to what we'll see later in the year once some fresh arctic air is around. Can anyone else chime in with thier temps from yesterday to get a good idea of the size of the wedge? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Likewise, in Winston-Salem the temperature peaked in the morning at 39 and went down to 36 by sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is how this Saturday will probably play out IMO. I doubt Wilkes goes from 34 snow/rain to a high in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is how this Saturday will probably play out IMO. I doubt Wilkes goes from 34 snow/rain to a high in the upper 40s. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 same here ... temp dropped to 35 here in Oak Ridge by 7pm and stayed there the most of the night ... my low was 34 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It was 39 yeaterday morning when I got up dropped to 37 just before the rain ended, also had sleet and snow mixin the last 10-15 minutes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Likewise, in Winston-Salem the temperature peaked in the morning at 39 and went down to 36 by sunset. For the most part, temps are usually modeled too high in the damming region when there is precip in-bound and the models always try to erode the wedge faster than it actually happens. I remember the days of the old ETA model. It seem to handle CAD events better than any other model, but occasionally it had some trouble with surface temps too. Bottom line is that surface temps can suprise you when you have a good source of low-level cold air and some precip...... The thing that gets to me the most, is when our local media guys forecast large diurnal ranges during precip events Everyone knows by now that there is not a 20 degree swing in temps from day to night during these type of events, but it is still forecasted at some point every winter. I think it is quite funny to read a forecast of rain during the day changing to snow at night and back to rain the next day followed by snow again the following night as the temps rise and fall. That may happen in other places but not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It was 39 yeaterday morning when I got up dropped to 37 just before the rain ended, also had sleet and snow mixin the last 10-15 minutes. lol Your area even got a shout-out from Accuweather. Henry Margusity Fan Club Yesterday via HootSuite Odd Observation of the day. Mount Airy, NC wind gust to 57 mph followed by a change over to snow. 33 people like this View all 17 comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 A high of 57 will NOT happen here today. (Weatherunderground) A high of 51 might happen if no more precip moves in. (NOAA) Currently 41 degrees with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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