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Dec 27-29th LES/Snow Event


Chicago Storm

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Looks good for a couple to 3 inches.

YYZ fighting the northern fringes once again... sadly this is the time both of us would want that 100 mile shift north with the precip field.

Swing and a whiff on the 18z NAM for LAF. NW trend is dead. Looking at the current radar, I'm inclined to buy it. Still looks good for IND, BMG, MIE, etc.

Another "fun" gradient on the northern side... I'm sitting at roughly 4" or so on the NAM while extreme NWOH gets pretty much nothing:

post-595-0-89340700-1356726455_thumb.gif

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ILN upgrades some counties to a WSW.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

357 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE

UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION

ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO

RIVER. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX NEAR

AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO

ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW

SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ091>093-OHZ063>065-070>074-077-078-080-

290500-

/O.UPG.KILN.WW.Y.0009.121229T0000Z-121229T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KILN.WS.W.0003.121229T0000Z-121229T1800Z/

FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-BOONE-KENTON-

CAMPBELL-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-

HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-HIGHLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...

LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...

ALEXANDRIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...

HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...

CINCINNATI...MILFORD...HILLSBORO

357 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM

EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS

EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH

ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND

WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN THIS

EVENING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO

REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

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This one has trended WAY NW over the past several days and suddenly it looks like the shovels will be needed again here. Our snow depth has settled some (avg of about 5") so a refresher snow very welcome! Model qpf is solidly in the 0.10-0.20" range now for DTW, so I say a 1-3" snowfall appears likely overnight into tomorrow morning!

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Not seeing much hope for lake effect off L Ontario. East wind stuff is usually pretty resilient but inversion heights AOB 2K feet and a ton of low level wind shear are proving to be a formidable impediment. I was toying with the idea of more than 2" tomorrow, but without the lake contribution, I think 2" is the ceiling.

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