Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 LOT bumped totals tomorrow, 1-3 NE Cook, 2-4 Geos. 28 dbz returns coming in near the Edens/Kennedy interchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 28 dbz returns coming in near the Edens/Kennedy interchange. yeah that band has been persistent on the far north side, will be interesting to see how my place did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Report of 2" of snow in Skokie. Via T. Skilling's FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 MKX AFD WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSOURI TONIGHT...THEN EAST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD TO EASTERN IOWA/MINNESOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY AS WELL. MODEST AT BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z FRIDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS ARE WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS STRONGER IN THE 700MB TO 300MB LAYER. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST AT BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN A LARGE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. THUS...CONTINUED TREND OF TIMING IN HIGH END POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF/SNOW WILL BE FROM NEAR THE DELLS TO MILWAUKEE. A GENERAL 1 1/2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LONG DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW...ALMOST 24 HOUR DURATION...SUGGESTS THAT 3 TO 5 INCH CRITERIA WITHIN 12 HOURS WILL NOT BE MET. WILL SEND AN UPDATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER AN ADVISORY...AS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN MADISON...AND THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE IN MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. .SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. FORCING WITH MAIN/INITIAL 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS 850MB AND 700MB LOW CENTERS...MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY...HOWEVER TRAILING VORT MAXES KEEP REGION UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGH. MODELS ALL KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CONVERGENCE ON APEX OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADD ANOTHER 0.5 INCH TO 1.8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST HALF. WILL END UP WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...HIGHER NEAR THE LAKE BUT OVER A 30-HOUR PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Report of 2" of snow in Skokie. Via T. Skilling's FB page. Not bad, that band has been sitting on them the past hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 RAP looking robust with the WAA wave tomorrow, we'll see how it trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 LOT Looks like a little pink in the most extreme corner of IL! At least an inch reported in Evanston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gladly will take 1-3" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yet another meso low about to move onshore near Wilmette/Evanston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gladly will take 1-3" tomorrow. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gladly will take 1-3" tomorrow. I think everyone in far SE WI/ NE IL would agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 BTW the RAP has been persistent in bring this lake effect band up into the Racine/Milwaukee area later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone is NE Cook County could end up seeing 3-3.25" if this thing doesn't start moving! Looks like it's going to aim near Lake/Cook line now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 probably an inch here...light snow starting again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DTX thoughts on this potential. SNOW WILL BE BACK IN THE WEATHER PICTURE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION ADDED TO YESTERDAY`S STORM. THE RESPONSIBLE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A WELL ORGANIZED LEAD WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS FEATURE SHEARING WEST AND NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT TRAILED BY A NEW ROUND OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS THE LARGER SCALE WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD COMBINATION OF DCVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INDICATED IN MODEL DATA TO START OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER WHERE STABILITY IS QUITE LOW ACCORDING TO CROSS SECTIONS OF THETA, THETA-E, AND THETA-T. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER OF MODERATE VERTICAL MOTION COMPARED TO WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT BY JUST VISUAL INSPECTION OF THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WAVE IN THE MODEL DATA. THEN, LATER IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ISENTROPIC LIFT MIGRATING INTO THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED SHORT WAVE FORCING TO MAINTAIN THE PATTERN OF SNOW. PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 285K SURFACE CONSISTS OF SOME SHARP GRADIENTS AROUND 750 MB IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS THAT HINT AT A LINGERING COMPONENT OF LOW STABILITY THAT WILL BE GOOD FOR A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE FORCING WANES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. USING CARE TO ALLOW GULF COAST CYCLOGENESIS TO INTERCEPT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE, PLAN TO MAINTAIN OUR GOING 1 TO 2 INCH FORECAST WHICH ALREADY LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF MODEL POP AND QPF OFFERINGS. THE BROAD LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL, COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT IN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW, WILL THEN KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL OF THESE TOGETHER COULD ADD UP TO ANOTHER INCH AROUND THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hell of a technical disc. by dtx there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hellz yeah! ...ACCUMULATING SNOW IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BEGINS LATE TONIGHT... LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM WISCONSIN DELLS TO MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. SNOW WILL BE FALLING IN MADISON DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE IN BOTH MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MILWAUKEE AND PORT WASHINGTON AREAS. Radar loop reminds me alot of a disorganized tropical storm, circulation center roaming around in the Dakotas with the precip activity all sheared off to the east. Classic positive vorticity advection by the thermal wind leading to upward motion and precip. http://tempest.aos.w...wcompflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 high end light snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS qpf That LES band is going to persist until the wind regime changes in response to the incoming system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Pretty sweet Kenilworth, IL Webcam shot of the Lake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 best part about lake snow is that even when under 5 dbz returns, it's a respectable light snow. none of that virga nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That's a sweet shot! Winnetka, Kenilworth & Glenview are ground zero right now. Edit: Snow shower coverage seems to be increasing over the lower end of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 best part about lake snow is that even when under 5 dbz returns, it's a respectable light snow. none of that virga nonsense. Yup, the 5 dbz it's detecting is the stuff at the very top of the band. Probably 15-25 dbz below the radar beam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 New snowfall report: ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0524 PM SNOW WILMETTE 42.08N 87.73W 12/27/2012 E1.5 INCH COOK IL PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Classic clipper snow track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Lol, that band is just crawling along! I don't think any of the models suggested a 12 hour stay over Cook County! Makes me wonder where the receiving end will be tomorrow as the mesolow looks to stay in place over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Lol, that band is just crawling along! I don't think any of the models suggested a 12 hour stay over Cook County! Makes me wonder where the receiving end will be tomorrow as the mesolow looks to stay in place over the lake. It's a nice band but it should steadily shift location throughout the event due to the changing wind direction. I'd be surprised if the lakefront sees crazy snow totals, I'm expecting more like 1-4 inches over a broad area. Lots of virga and not much precipitation right now as far as the real snow event goes, it's early but that's probably a sign that totals will be less than anticipated. Dewpoints are forecast to stay much lower than the temp throughout the event. Regardless, I'm excited for some accumulating snow, whether it be half an inch or 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's a nice band but it should steadily shift location throughout the event due to the changing wind direction. I'd be surprised if the lakefront sees crazy snow totals, I'm expecting more like 1-4 inches over a broad area. Lots of virga and not much precipitation right now as far as the real snow event goes, it's early but that's probably a sign that totals will be less than anticipated. Dewpoints are forecast to stay much lower than the temp throughout the event. Regardless, I'm excited for some accumulating snow, whether it be half an inch or 6. Would the lake effect help seed the clouds around here tonight? Limit the amount of virga to fall? Looks like that band is staying in Cook County for awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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