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Dec 27-29th LES/Snow Event

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0818 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...FAR SWRN OH...EXTREME NRN KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 290218Z - 290615Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR WILL BE

POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN HALF OF IND...FAR SWRN OH AND EXTREME NRN KY

THROUGH 06Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...WITH A

PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ADVANCING INTO WRN KY/TN. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT

ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW TO MIDLEVEL

FRONTOGENESIS HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD

LOCATED FROM SERN MO NEWD ACROSS SRN IL. IN ADDITION...MODEL CROSS

SECTIONS FROM S-N ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INDICATE THE PRESENCE

OF BOTH CI AND CSI...WHICH IS YIELDING MULTI-BANDED STRUCTURES

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. AS A RESULT...MODERATE

SNOWFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER SRN IL

DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES ADVANCING EWD...BANDED SNOWFALL IS

FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF IND...PORTIONS OF SWRN OH

AND EXTREME NRN KY. SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR WILL BE

POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW TO MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL WEAKEN

SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE 03-06Z TIME PERIOD...WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

post-4544-0-70495000-1356748175_thumb.gi

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

The winter wonderland outside is just about to become a whole lot wintrier! Refresher snow ftw! And the snowbanks havent even had much of a chance to get dirty yet laugh.png

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

901 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

.UPDATE...

THE MID TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE NOW

ADVANCING ACROSS THE SRN MS VALLEY HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE

LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS APPARENT BY BOTH THE COOLING CLOUD

TOPS ON THE IR IMAGERY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES

AND EXPANDING REGION OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM SE MO INTO CNTRL

INDIANA. OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE

SHOWN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION TRENDING STRONGER AND FURTHER

NORTH THAN EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATED. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE

OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF

THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SLIDING INTO METRO DETROIT LATE

TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING THIS FAR NORTH IS LIKELY TO

BE QUITE HIGH UP /AROUND 600 MB/...THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED

GOOD MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO THE 600MB LEVEL AND A TEMPERATURE

PROFILE WHICH COULD SUPPORT GOOD SNOWFLAKE SIZE. UPSTREAM

OBSERVATIONS...THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING PROFILE AND RECENT RUNS OF THE

HRRR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FCST SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SE OF AN ADRIAN TO MT CLEMENS LINE /2 TO 4

INCHES/. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT WILL BETWEEN 6Z AND 13Z.

THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MONROE COUNTY AND THE

DOWNRIVER COMMUNITIES. CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE OF THE POSSIBILITY

THAT SOME OF THESE LOCALS MAY SEE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY EXCEED 4

INCHES.

THE ABUNANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE

FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD

ALLOW A FAIRLY LARGE REGION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST

ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD HOWEVER

DROP OFF QUITE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS UP

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS NO ADJUSTMENTS TO

FCST ACCUMS WILL BE MADE NW OF THE ADRIAN TO MT CLEMENS LINE.

&&

This is really textbook type of weather for you, lol...

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*IndyMeso*

*IndyMeso*

Posted
Posted

Im in Fishers now, its been ripping half dollar sized flakes for a few hours. I live between Noblesville and Cicero on the map you just posted. A bit lighter there but I bet were about at 2inches with maybe 2 more to go.

Same here. Ran outside a few minutes ago to check how much and I would say a good fluffy two inches so far. Live in noblesville so we aren't that far apart. Just hasn't stopped since around 7.

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B-Rent

B-Rent

Posted
Posted

Im in Fishers now, its been ripping half dollar sized flakes for a few hours. I live between Noblesville and Cicero on the map you just posted. A bit lighter there but I bet were about at 2inches with maybe 2 more to go.

Same here. Ran outside a few minutes ago to check how much and I would say a good fluffy two inches so far. Live in noblesville so we aren't that far apart. Just hasn't stopped since around 7.

We're gonna give the LAF crew a run for their money on obs. :)

Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk!

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

Been up for days working on the last snow. Everthing is back to 100% asphalt as of 9:00 pm. As for now going to bed to get a few hours of sleep to start this all over again. Thinking the NW shift will once again pay off in our region. Another 2-4" in the bank will make thinks more wintry. One bad thing about the last storm was the lack of practice as of late and equipment malfuntions made it a long slow go.

Any help in times of the snow would help.... Start, finish and height of the snow would be greatly appriciated.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Been up for days working on the last snow. Everthing is back to 100% asphalt as of 9:00 pm. As for now going to bed to get a few hours of sleep to start this all over again. Thinking the NW shift will once again pay off in our region. Another 2-4" in the bank will make thinks more wintry. One bad thing about the last storm was the lack of practice as of late and equipment malfuntions made it a long slow go.

Any help in times of the snow would help.... Start, finish and height of the snow would be greatly appriciated.

Per HRRR....will probably start in the next couple of hours, peak towards dawn, and then diminishing early-mid morning. Spits out 2-3" but as DTX mentioned there could be more.

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

The winter wonderland outside is just about to become a whole lot wintrier! Refresher snow ftw! And the snowbanks havent even had much of a chance to get dirty yet laugh.png

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

901 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

.UPDATE...

THE MID TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE NOW

ADVANCING ACROSS THE SRN MS VALLEY HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE

LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS APPARENT BY BOTH THE COOLING CLOUD

TOPS ON THE IR IMAGERY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES

AND EXPANDING REGION OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM SE MO INTO CNTRL

INDIANA. OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE

SHOWN THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION TRENDING STRONGER AND FURTHER

NORTH THAN EARLIER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATED. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE

OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF

THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SLIDING INTO METRO DETROIT LATE

TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING THIS FAR NORTH IS LIKELY TO

BE QUITE HIGH UP /AROUND 600 MB/...THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED

GOOD MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO THE 600MB LEVEL AND A TEMPERATURE

PROFILE WHICH COULD SUPPORT GOOD SNOWFLAKE SIZE. UPSTREAM

OBSERVATIONS...THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING PROFILE AND RECENT RUNS OF THE

HRRR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO FCST SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SE OF AN ADRIAN TO MT CLEMENS LINE /2 TO 4

INCHES/. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT WILL BETWEEN 6Z AND 13Z.

THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MONROE COUNTY AND THE

DOWNRIVER COMMUNITIES. CERTAINLY CAN NOT RULE OF THE POSSIBILITY

THAT SOME OF THESE LOCALS MAY SEE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY EXCEED 4

INCHES.

THE ABUNANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE

FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD

ALLOW A FAIRLY LARGE REGION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST

ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD HOWEVER

DROP OFF QUITE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS UP

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS NO ADJUSTMENTS TO

FCST ACCUMS WILL BE MADE NW OF THE ADRIAN TO MT CLEMENS LINE.

&&

Yes, please! Not liking how things look on radar right now, but again, that can be decieving.

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