sn0w Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Pretty remarkable differences in the forecast guidance right now thermally actually. Yeah...difference between GFS and Euro is huge. Now I am the farthest thing possible from a weather/model reading expert...but I was surprised watching how far North and how quickly the GFS is shooting the 850 line with the High pressure that is in place early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nice.. Thanks bro Always a beautiful thing when Dr. No is on your side lol.. Ok...gonna ask this now since I've been seeing it a ton lately. WTF is Dr. No lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nice.. Thanks bro Always a beautiful thing when Dr. No is on your side lol.. Ok...gonna ask this now since I've been seeing it a ton lately. WTF is Dr. No lol. The Euro model. This is because many times the GFS or NAM will show a big storm but the Euro does not...and the Euro winds up being correct more often than not in a typical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Can anyone share what the euro is showing for Sullivan County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What did the Euro show for the Poughkeepsie area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Early guess up here would be 3-6" followed by .25" of ice. If the Euro is correct then this may need to be bumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nice.. Thanks bro Always a beautiful thing when Dr. No is on your side lol.. No problem.I would definitely rather have dr no than the GFS on our side in terms of the thermal profiles for sure. The 18z NAM is coming in colder as well for NJ into NY state. 850s were at Sussex at hour 39 on the 12z NAM. At hour 33, they're just north of TTN on the 18z. By 36 they've retreated to MMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Can anyone share what the euro is showing for Sullivan County? Solidly in the 6 inch range, close to the 9 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What did the Euro show for the Poughkeepsie area? 6-9" of snow per the Accuweather Pro Snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Solidly in the 6 inch range, close to the 9 inch range. Thanks Snowlover123! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Thanks Snowlover123! You're welcome! I'm going to still watch this storm system for my area in Somerset County NJ. This is just too painfully close for me to ignore, which trended a tick cooler from it's previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 can anyone share the latest re: Sussex county? can't see maps on this phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For the NW Burbs folk: 18z NAM at hour 33 showing the rain/snow/ice areas in the bottom left hand corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 thanks bud. looks messy up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM snow Per the maps on Storm Vista: 12z NAM was actually snowier for NJ. KMMU - 1-2" KSMQ - Coating to an inch KHPN - Coating to an inch KSWF - 6-8" Sussex - 2-4" KMPO - 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I know it's a bit out of our area but did anybody notice this? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ310 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013PAZ054-055-261000-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.130226T2100Z-130227T1400Z/CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG310 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN, SNOW, AND SLEET OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM snow Per the maps on Storm Vista: 12z NAM was actually snowier for NJ. KMMU - 1-2" KSMQ - Coating to an inch KHPN - Coating to an inch KSWF - 6-8" Sussex - 2-4" KMPO - 3-5" Interesting. It seemed to be colder overall for NJ into NY from my standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 thanks bud. looks messy up this way. No problem. It sure does. Close for my area in Somerset county as well right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Interesting. It seemed to be colder overall for NJ into NY from my standpoint. When you look at it very closely, the differences are minimal. To simplfy things, 18z was about the same at the surface if not a tad colder, but we warm up a few hours earlier this run at the 850 level, thus we run into a more of an IP/ZR threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z GFS still wants nothing to do with the colder solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 18z GFS is a complete torch. By hr 36 the surface and 850 freezing lines are all well north of the area. No frozen at all....for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 18z GFS is a complete torch. By hr 36 the surface and 850 freezing lines are all well north of the area. No frozen at all....for anyone. Storm is less than 36 hours away... and I'm looking at 3-6" per the Euro and nothing frozen at all per the GFS. How's that for consensus? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The gfs is ignoring the CAD setup which is clearly there for those areas to the north and west, I would actually trust the Nam more than the gfs and the Euro of course is much better than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My Mt Holly forecast is basically non event for Sussex Co.. Freezing rain. Rain.Snow.Chance of sleet in evening. Rain and sleet aftermidnite. Up to 1" snow and sleet acc.. No mention of any ice accruel. Unless they change their next update. Non event. At least frozen precip. wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My Mt Holly forecast is basically non event for Sussex Co.. Freezing rain. Rain.Snow.Chance of sleet in evening. Rain and sleet aftermidnite. Up to 1" snow and sleet acc.. No mention of any ice accruel. Unless they change their next update. Non event. At least frozen precip. wise. If the NAM is correct areas NW of I-287 could get a significant icing, but it won't be enough for more than advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 If the NAM is correct areas NW of I-287 could get a significant icing, but it won't be enough for more than advisory.Sounds like to me, theyre not basing theyre forecast on the nam. 95% of the time That WSW for Monroe Co. PA, Sussex would be included in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Sounds like to me, theyre not basing theyre forecast on the nam. 95% of the time That WSW for Monroe Co. PA, Sussex would be included in that. Sounds like to me, theyre not basing theyre forecast on the nam. 95% of the time That WSW for Monroe Co. PA, Sussex would be included in that. The watch in the Poconos is mainly highlighting the icing threat for the higher terrain. Carbon and Monroe counties have elevations ranging from 1800 to 2200 feet, Sussex is considerably lower obviously. Here in Pike county, Binghamtons snow and ice maps show 2 to 4 inches of snow, followed by. 25 of ice which is below criteria for a watch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sounds like to me, theyre not basing theyre forecast on the nam. 95% of the time That WSW for Monroe Co. PA, Sussex would be included in that. mt hollys ice and snow amounts look identical to the 15z sref ensembles. those ensembles have not been to great this winter. have underdone snow amounts most of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The watch in the Poconos is mainly highlighting the icing threat for the higher terrain. Carbon and Monroe counties have elevations ranging from 1800 to 2200 feet, Sussex is considerably lower obviously. Here in Pike county, Binghamtons snow and ice maps show 2 to 4 inches of snow, followed by. 25 of ice which is below criteria for a watch here.Understand. And agree. My point is ,I guess, is there has been alot of talk about models showing possible mod icing, very messy conditions, etc., here for this area, and for whatever reason, Mt Holly doesnt see that happening here. At least reflected in theyre last updated forecast. From what I read here, with my very limited knowledge, the nam shows that, so obviously Mt Holly is not weighting the nam heavily in their forecast. Correct? Just a question from a novice. Im just an obs guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Understand. And agree. My point is ,I guess, is there has been alot of talk about models showing possible mod icing, very messy conditions, etc., here for this area, and for whatever reason, Mt Holly doesnt see that happening here. At least reflected in theyre last updated forecast. From what I read here, with my very limited knowledge, the nam shows that, so obviously Mt Holly is not weighting the nam heavily in their forecast. Correct? Just a question from a novice. Im just an obs guy. they seem to be following the 15z sref ensembles to a t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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