snywx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 544 AM EST WED FEB 20 2013 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-211045- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 544 AM EST WED FEB 20 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST AND MAINLY SNOW INLAND AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS EVENT THOUGH AND VARIATIONS IN TRACK AND MAGNITUDE WILL LEAD TO CHANGES IN FORECAST AMOUNTS AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE AREAS WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Everyone up here should be keeping an eye on this weekends storm. 12z GFS MGJ -- http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ ( Mostly Snow) SWF -- http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kswf ( Mostly Snow) FWN -- http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kfwn ( Snow/Rain) Verbatim it sets up the R/S line right on the Sussex/Orange border We'll see what the EURO puts out. Sould be running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z EURO is about the same as the GFS. On the edge with the frozen precip up here in the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 12z EURO is about the same as the GFS. On the edge with the frozen precip up here in the county. We've been down that road before. One thing is for sure, where it falls its going to be a wet paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We've been down that road before. One thing is for sure, where it falls its going to be a wet paste. Hello backache. Not fun to shovel. Better than nothing i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 0z NAM snowmap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hello backache. Not fun to shovel. Better than nothing i guess. Heheh Well, it's been a wash, rinse and repeat kinda pattern so just get a Subaru and drive over it for a bit, wait for it to melt and get r**ned away and then do it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z NAM looks colder .. might help some of us out a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z NAM looks colder .. might help some of us out a little... Some of us might squeek out a coating at the onset and at the end on this run, but I really wouldn't count on picking up much snow as the precip is rapidly coming to an end as the cold air begins to wrap in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sometimes I find it hard to figure out what its gonna do by me .. this area seems to have its own little micro climate .Yesterday we had a projected high in the mid 30's and I never made it out of the low 20's. Elevation makes a world of difference .. a few days ago when everyone mostly got rain it snowed all day up here and I had a few inches when it was all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sometimes I find it hard to figure out what its gonna do by me .. this area seems to have its own little micro climate .Yesterday we had a projected high in the mid 30's and I never made it out of the low 20's. Elevation makes a world of difference .. a few days ago when everyone mostly got rain it snowed all day up here and I had a few inches when it was all over. You may sleet more than others but other than that don't expect much snow. 850 temps still rise above 0 and that level is a good 4000' above you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You may sleet more than others but other than that don't expect much snow. 850 temps still rise above 0 and that level is a good 4000' above you.. Understood. Do you happen to know where I can find or can you post the clown map from the 12z nam if its out? I know it doesn't mean anything really but i'd like to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Understood. Do you happen to know where I can find or can you post the clown map from the 12z nam if its out? I know it doesn't mean anything really but i'd like to see it. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE048.gif Thank you lab94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z NAM shows mostly sleet up this way. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Good evening folks, current temp is 29F. Forecast is calling for some light snow, sleet and freezing rain through tomorrow. I scanned the threads and have discovered that this event may be more of a dud than a thud for total QPF. It will be interesting to track the temps, precip for this event. Hopefully the NAM/ GFS tonight knocks up the precip some for everyone. Positive aspect with the rain is it will wash away all the brown/black crud snow. I am through $2500 in heating oil so far this season. Little surprised, but I guess we have had some decent cold snaps. During the off season, I will have get one of these pellet/wood burning stoves installed. Most people I have talked to inform this will cut the cost down by 30% on average. Cheers, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 sleet on and off here on the other side of the mountain, Matt. definitely track the cold snaps with the oil bill. pellet stove dropped my DAILY heating average from $65 to $35. be happy to give you a hand installing one. very green and efficient. putting two more in soon. just call your homeowners insurance first..ask them if they care where you install. njm didn't give a darn, but all are different. sleet just picked up with nothing on the radar. Good evening folks, current temp is 29F. Forecast is calling for some light snow, sleet and freezing rain through tomorrow. I scanned the threads and have discovered that this event may be more of a dud than a thud for total QPF. It will be interesting to track the temps, precip for this event. Hopefully the NAM/ GFS tonight knocks up the precip some for everyone. Positive aspect with the rain is it will wash away all the brown/black crud snow. I am through $2500 in heating oil so far this season. Little surprised, but I guess we have had some decent cold snaps. During the off season, I will have get one of these pellet/wood burning stoves installed. Most people I have talked to inform this will cut the cost down by 30% on average. Cheers, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 sleet on and off here on the other side of the mountain, Matt. definitely track the cold snaps with the oil bill. pellet stove dropped my DAILY heating average from $65 to $35. be happy to give you a hand installing one. very green and efficient. putting two more in soon. just call your homeowners insurance first..ask them if they care where you install. njm didn't give a darn, but all are different. sleet just picked up with nothing on the radar. Must be a serious dry layer up there in mid levels.. Critical thicknesses are more than enough to support snow 80/20 here Sleet/Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 sleet on and off here on the other side of the mountain, Matt. definitely track the cold snaps with the oil bill. pellet stove dropped my DAILY heating average from $65 to $35. be happy to give you a hand installing one. very green and efficient. putting two more in soon. just call your homeowners insurance first..ask them if they care where you install. njm didn't give a darn, but all are different. sleet just picked up with nothing on the radar Hello Patrick, I just may take you up on the pellet stove offer in the off season. Current temp 30 F. Must have had a band or 2 of lite snow, sleet, freezing drizzle recently. Everything is frozen over. Roads are a little slick too. Cheers, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Same at my house. Coating of sleety snow. Currently light freezing drizzle. 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Good morning, It seems Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could be nasty for the interior. I read the Mt Holly & Upton discussions. All indicate that we could get hit hard with sleet,snow & freezing rain. Mt Holly NWS seems to me more bullish on a strong winter event. Cheers, Darkstar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Good morning, It seems Tuesday night into Wednesday morning could be nasty for the interior. I read the Mt Holly & Upton discussions. All indicate that we could get hit hard with sleet,snow & freezing rain. Mt Holly NWS seems to me more bullish on a strong winter event. Cheers, Darkstar I just read Upton's AFD...they mention the Euro is the colder solution and brings moderate accumulations to their interior zones. Anyone see the Euro last night? Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I just read Upton's AFD...they mention the Euro is the colder solution and brings moderate accumulations to their interior zones. Anyone see the Euro last night? Details? yes from hr 72-78 850 line around rt 78, surface 32 line northern passiac through sussex county., precip .10-.25, hr 84 850 line .25-.50 fall, 850 line on ny state border but surface 32 line into northern orange county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 yes from hr 72-78 850 line around rt 78, surface 32 line northern passiac through sussex county., precip .10-.25, hr 84 850 line .25-.50 fall, 850 line on ny state border but surface 32 line into northern orange county. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Light snow here in Westchester but temps are still above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Its been snowing here for a while now. Sticking to everything but the center of the streets. A little whitening of the remaining snow is a good thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well that was too quick. I can't really even call it an accumulation. Oh well. What's with Tuesday night? Over in the NE forum there are good rumblings going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Upton bullish on wintry precip for Orange county.. 2" or so followed by 1/4" of ice for these parts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Upton bullish on wintry precip for Orange county.. 2" or so followed by 1/4" of ice for these parts.. Shows you how bad things have been lately when 1-2" is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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