hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z NAM text.. MGJ -- 3.05" All Snow SWF -- 2.95" All Snow FWN -- 3.31" All Snow I see 3.07 of QPF for KSWF. Not much of a big deal. LOL It spits out a mere 41.3" http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. ...DEEP CYCLONE ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...EJECTING OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST... PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS/00Z ECENS MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ALL OF THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LVL CLSD LOW CENTER AND ASSOCD TROF AXIS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BE ADVANCING WELL INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH SAT. THIS ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPR MIDWEST ALONG WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE ON SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE GUIDANCE OVERALL IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE 00Z NAM GRADUALLY BECOMES A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THE HT FALLS SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE ENERGY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND TWD THE UPR MIDWEST EARLY MON. THE NAM ALSO BECOMES SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BY EARLY MON AS WELL. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HT FALLS. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL...12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GFS ALL SPLIT THE DIFF. THE 12Z ECENS MEAN AND 18Z GEFS MEAN COLLECTIVELY ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE 18Z GFS VS THE 12Z ECMWF. BASED ON THIS AND THE OVERALL MDL SPREAD...WILL FAVOR A 18Z GFS/00Z ECENS MEAN. ...NORTHERN STREAM TROF DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z UKMET WAS A RELATIVELY SHARP AND SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS SHRTWV TROF DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT. THE 00Z NAM...18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12AZ GEM GLOBAL WERE ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE. OVERALL THE 12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYS...AND SO WILL FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF ATTM. ...VORT ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 18Z GFS AS WITH ITS PREV RUNS APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING VORT ENERGY SWD DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE DEEP LYR RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z UKMET THOUGH SUPPORTS THE STRONGER 18Z GFS. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH THE ENERGY...WITH THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF SPLITTING THE DIFF. THE 18Z GEFS MEMBERS GENERALLY DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING AS ROBUST AS THE 18Z GFS...AND WITH THE 12Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORTING THE 12Z ECMWF...WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLN ATTM IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF. ...PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ...POWERFUL COASTAL LOW EVOLVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS EVENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILL LIFT NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRI. AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM HT FALLS DIGGING ACROSS THE LWR GRT LAKES AND UPR OH VLY REGION WILL CAPTURE AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY AND DRIVE A LOW CENTER THAT WILL BOMB OUT OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD OUT TO SEA LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE THEN INVOF THE BENCHMARK FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...BEFORE THEN PUSHING EAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. REGARDING THE MDL DETAILS...THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE OVERALL MDL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 18Z GFS...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 12Z UKMET A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z ECENS MEAN ACTUALLY SUGGESTS A LOW TRACK JUST A TAD LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTS THE 18Z GFS. BASED ON ALL THIS...HPC WILL FAVOR A SOLN STRONGLY TWD THE 12Z ECMWF ATTM. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml ...500 MB FORECASTS AT ...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml ORRISON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z GFS Text MGJ -- .78" All Snow SWF -- .94" All Snow FWN -- .70 All Snow Have a feeling this is more reality here... Maybe a touch wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 light snow has started in HL. Going to bed for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z GFS Text MGJ -- .78" All Snow SWF -- .94" All Snow FWN -- .70 All Snow Have a feeling this is more reality here... Maybe a touch wetter What kind of ratios you think we are looking at up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What kind of ratios you think we are looking at up here? 12-15:1 I was told the Euro was over an 1" up in this region as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 moderate snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowing nicely right now & accumulating on all surfaces.. Temp 25.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12-15:1 I was told the Euro was over an 1" up in this region as well.. Thanks- so it sounds like we are still in line for decent snows. 28 and light snow here now with a dusting on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's cold and windy with light snow. 29* E/NE @ ~15mph. I was hoping for more by now but that was my inner weenie talking I think. Still, looks like a foot is gonna happen and more is on the table. Enjoy the day kidz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Picking up in intensity here. 29/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow is picking up a bit, flakes are bigger and the wind gusts are higher. Looks like it's just a short time until the precip rates go BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lgt Snow here w/a temp of 28 Just under 1" on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light to moderate snow throughout the morning in Wantage. Not accumulating well at all yet. Still early in the game, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 light snow here above Lake Wallkill...have a new inch on all surfaces as of 11:35. So far, just enough to freshen up the snowpack. I really want to go outside and pull the heavier bands westward lol. Mt. Holly sticking with 10-14 up this way, but I could easily see that slipping just east of me. Regardless, an awesome day out there with snow falling and a brisk wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Moderate snow here in Monroe with temp at 30. Still just a coating but starting to whiten up some more. Winds picking up. Latest forecast still showing 12-16 inches here. Just going to sit back and see what happens. Will gladly take a foot along with the winds- hopefully we get a good dumping either way. Everyone enjoy and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Temp is down to 25/26*, wind is still picking up and decidedly out of the N/NE now and it's approaching SN+. Closing on 2" now with all but the main roads totally snow covered and they are slushy. Look good and sounds great out there with the wind rumbling through the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Woah what a difference a few minutes makes. It's nuking out there right now! Down to 1/8 mi vis with beautiful flakes mostly falling sideways but the wind seems to be lightening up and turning slightly more northerly rather than north/northeast. Just about time to take the wifes Subie out and test the new snow tires I put on a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Steady moderate snow in Wantage. My road is still clear. They do preemptive brine and a truck went by before putting rock salt down. All other surfaces are covered now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good afternoon Folks, Best snow of the day is falling. Looks to be the biggest snow of the season imby. Current temp 27F New snow - 2.0 inches Hopefully some of those bands blow NW later this afternoon/tonight. I expect to finish around 10 inches unless something crazy goes down later with a knarly band. Cheers, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ditto... but you do have about 398 feet of elevation on me Watching the radar...looks like the bomb has been detonated, and good to see precip filling in to our South and Southwest...bodes very well for later on. Good afternoon Folks, Best snow of the day is falling. Looks to be the biggest snow of the season imby. Current temp 27F New snow - 2.0 inches Hopefully some of those bands blow NW later this afternoon/tonight. I expect to finish around 10 inches unless something crazy goes down later with a knarly band. Cheers, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pins and needles seeing how far west the heavy stuff goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pins and needles seeing how far west the heavy stuff goes Yea I agree. 18 NAM looked good though....but it went down like that titanic last night. Some big bust out west for sure are occuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Going to be a close call for those of us in NW NJ later tonight. May just miss the major banding but still see a solid 8-12". Or maybe we will be surprised with the heavy band a little further west and some of us get 10-18". Outside of that one fear is being close but outside the heavy band and thus sitting in light snow and subsidence for a prolonged period. That could leave some in the 6-8" range. For those reason as I have advertised to friends since early yesterday 8-16" for most of NNJ with some higher amounts possible if heavier band reaches into area for a prolonged period. From my understanding may face another coastal threat about this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 heaviest snow yet here....and radar is ugly. S+ with 1"per hour rate going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 heaviest snow yet here....and radar is ugly. S+ with 1"per hour rate going on right now. Nice steady light to moderate snow here all day despite radars less then stellar appearance. Maybe that is sign later will be pleasantly surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 heaviest snow yet here....and radar is ugly. S+ with 1"per hour rate going on right now. radar looks like garbage. I too have good snow falling though. Afternoon euro still gave us a good dump. I really would be annoyed with anything under 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 latest details from Mt Holly NWS. They have double downed for Sussex and Morris County. Max 16 inches still on the table. Low end 8. Mentions inch + hours snow slow drifting west though the night etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3 inches of snow here, been snowing moderately since about 10am, just starting to get pretty heavy. Some wind here and there, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 In the last hour, larger flakes have mixed in by me. My road has finally whitened over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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