IrishRob17 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In some of these bands the ratios could be insane. Surface temps in the teens with 850s around -10 I remember the change in the snow during the snowicane in 2010 as the CCB set up, fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I remember the change in the snow during the snowicane in 2010 as the CCB set up, fun stuff. Ugh.. That storm was truly incredible. Most areas east of Chester to the Hudson had 32"+ I wouldn't be surprised if the usual suspects ( Monroe, Highland Mills, Harriman, Central Valley) come up with 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone have a feel for when the accumulations start tomorrow. Will it start before 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ugh.. That storm was truly incredible. Most areas east of Chester to the Hudson had 32"+ I wouldn't be surprised if the usual suspects ( Monroe, Highland Mills, Harriman, Central Valley) come up with 18"+ Hopefully we will all do well. I'll just be happy to see some heavy snow with cold temps and wind! Would be nice to get in on blizzard warnings our way as well. Gotta love the b word lol Certainly sounds possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hey nw neighbors.....any analysis...looks like we are looking at 1.70 as max qpf in Sussex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hey nw neighbors.....any analysis...looks like we are looking at 1.70 as max qpf in Sussex The 12z euro is 1.27" as per a few posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12-18" with locally 20" would be my call right now for Sussex and orange counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z NAM still very snowy.. Also looks to flip NYC and LI over to rain for a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thank you... I finally found it when I dug through the main thread...lol. This being my first big storm in the big woods....and not having the generator here yet (eek)... those of you that have been up here through other Miller A/B hybrids, think we meet the same totals as forecast in EWR right now? i realize we won't have the same qpf to work with, but since we will likely begin as and remain all snow with decent ratios throughout, absent the mega deform band, what's the prognosis? Man, now I realize why you all used to be so confused when we city folk didn't address what may or may not happen on the western edge. lol. The 12z euro is 1.27" as per a few posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I told my neighbors 1-2ft. I think higher ratios and staying all snow throughout the storm will be our biggest assets. Subsidence could be our biggest enemy, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thank you... I finally found it when I dug through the main thread...lol. This being my first big storm in the big woods....and not having the generator here yet (eek)... those of you that have been up here through other Miller A/B hybrids, think we meet the same totals as forecast in EWR right now? i realize we won't have the same qpf to work with, but since we will likely begin as and remain all snow with decent ratios throughout, absent the mega deform band, what's the prognosis? Man, now I realize why you all used to be so confused when we city folk didn't address what may or may not happen on the western edge. lol. We very rarely do have the same amount of qpf as those to our east during coastals but we always do well. Colder surface & mid-level temps hence better ratios, terrain enhancement usually help out for areas in the NW. With temps in the teens and 850s around -10 we should rack up in no time and if by some chance a band decides to park itself overhead ( which usually does) then your in for a show. Subsidence tends to be our worst enemy up here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thanks boss..appreciate the response! We very rarely do have the same amount of qpf as those to our east during coastals but we always do well. Colder surface & mid-level temps hence better ratios, terrain enhancement usually help out for areas in the NW. With temps in the teens and 850s around -10 we should rack up in no time and if by some chance a band decides to park itself overhead ( which usually does) then your in for a show. Subsidence tends to be our worst enemy up here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 when will first flakes come in? will the roads be slick tomorrow am up here in putnam co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I told my neighbors 1-2ft. I think higher ratios and staying all snow throughout the storm will be our biggest assets. Subsidence could be our biggest enemy, though. Ha, I was just at the grocery store in Warwick, NY. I over heard some people talking about 2 feet. I will be a little more conservative with a general 8-12 inches. My expectations have gone up from last night. Mt Holly point and click indicates upto 15 inches. That would knarly. Just back around 2 PM today from out west ski trip. Great leaving snow and coming back to a big ticket item. Plus I am off from work tomorrow so I can crack a few beers later in the day if all goes according to plan. Hopefully the night model runs are kind to us. Cheers, Darkstar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 2ft, I'll admit, is my wishful thinking 12-16 is more realistic and I attribute that to high ratios. If subsidence doesn't rear it's ugly head and we get a decent dose of the deformation band before the storm starts pulling NE from us, I think something at least close to 2ft might be possible, imo. I got plenty of homemade wine to hunker down with tomorrow night. Cheers indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gonna faint after looking at 0z nam. Cut the qpf in half if you need to its still all good. What a model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I can't believe what I just saw on the 0z NAM... Puts us in the bullseye for 36"+ lol.. Ughh someone needs to save the snowman from this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I can't believe what I just saw on the 0z NAM... Puts us in the bullseye for 36"+ lol.. Ughh someone needs to save the snowman from this one Yea that is crazy. Wow is all I can say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you have cardiac problems I suggest you do not read lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I want to take this run of the NAM and tuck it under my pillow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itsdnice Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its just beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 any speculation on a start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you have cardiac problems I suggest you do not read lol.. Snywx- remember my joke from a couple of days ago about how 5-7 inches would feel like 2 ft after all those clipper dustings? How ironic if we get dumped with that for real now. It's been quite an evolution to get to where things are looking now - that's for sure. This is why I love winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 30 minutes or so until the GFS brings back reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snywx- remember my joke from a couple of days ago about how 5-7 inches would feel like 2 ft after all those clipper dustings? How ironic if we get dumped with that for real now. It's been quite an evolution to get to where things are looking now - that's for sure. This is why I love winter! According to the NAM 2ft may be on the low side lol.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Enjoy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Watching TWC and they still have me in the 3-6" zone. Either they know something everyone else doesn't or they are nuts. 1.4" qpf and 6" max? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z NAM text.. MGJ -- 3.05" All Snow SWF -- 2.95" All Snow FWN -- 3.31" All Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z NAM text.. MGJ -- 3.05" All Snow SWF -- 2.95" All Snow FWN -- 3.31" All Snow One can only hope! Regardless- I've got my Kawasaki Brute Force ready for some fun with whatever falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well the 0z RGEM pretty much is a carbon copy of the NAM.. Just colder for the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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