Radders Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think there are a lot of people with QPF envy as they look at the potential to our northeast... Yeah, and being a weenie that I am, I am packing up the car, and taking a road trip to Boston tomorrow night. I was looking for an excuse for a weekend break somewhere!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think there are a lot of people with QPF envy as they look at the potential to our northeast... Its amazing cause if this storm pans out most of us will be 75% of normal with 1.5 month left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 hey, lets bring this thread back to life.... lets hope this thing keeps trending towards earlier phase and we can get rocked here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 hey, lets bring this thread back to life.... lets hope this thing keeps trending towards earlier phase and we can get rocked here as well. Last nights EC gave the area 12-18" of snow w/ todays GFS dumping a good amount as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Last nights EC gave the area 12-18" of snow w/ todays GFS dumping a good amount as well. The EC is the extreme outcome, sure it's possible but I'm not banking on it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i dont know if envy is the right word...here in the nw burbs we REALLY need to watch that tight gradient. could be in for a snow job. pun intended. I think there are a lot of people with QPF envy as they look at the potential to our northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The EC is the extreme outcome, sure it's possible but I'm not banking on it at this point. CMC/GFS/EC all have the CCB forming overhead and heading NE so its very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i dont know if envy is the right word...here in the nw burbs we REALLY need to watch that tight gradient. could be in for a snow job. pun intended. I don't think this storm is gonna have a tight gradient like what we saw back in 09-10. If anything the gradient may form from the R/S line rather than actual precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Snow map from the 12z Canadian.. Orange County looks like 20mm+ of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Every single county in NYS is under a WSW.. Don't see that too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Every single county in NYS is under a WSW.. Don't see that too oftenThats pretty cool. 12z GFS had KSWF with 8.9 of snow. The 18z has bumped up to 13.1. Close to Uptons snow map that is at 14.5. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php 18z GFS for KHPN is 29.4 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=khpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As it looks right now precip amounts whether its snow or rain look to rise sharply from SW to NE. I can see areas of Warren County NJ receiving 4-6" while areas in eastern Orange County receiving upwards of 18".. Should be cool to watch unfold. Lets not forget how there is ALWAYS a secondary max of snow fall in these parts most likely due to orographic lift, ratios, banding etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It ill be interesting to see how far west the heavy snowfall line reaches. In the Dec 30, 2000 storm Vernon and Highland Lakes received 24-30 inches of snow and western Sussex County closer to the Delaware River received only about a foot. The snowfall rates in that storm were 3-4 inches an hour for a few hours it was unbelievable. I hope we receive something similar but I know it will probably less but i am still hoping for 12+. I am going to have to decide tomorrow night if I ride the storm out in Hardyston, Sussex County or in Whitestone, Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good evening folks, It looks as if my backyard is on the fence with snow it terms of what to expect for this storm depending your model of choice. NAM also indicates we may get a period of rain on Friday at some point too. Keeping my fingers crossed for a decent dump. Expectations are low for anything higher than 6 inches currently. Hopefully the GFS provides some good wood when it runs soon. I was hoping the NAM would be a little better honestly. Cheers, Darkstar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z Rgem smokes Orange County.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z Rgem smokes Orange County.. Bring it on I say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At this point have to believe euro qpf is overdone. I like Mt Holly snow maps which are basically 6-8 and then double digits as you get to ny border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 But it's been so consistent.... idk. 6-8 is a reasonable call IMHO. I think you and I are too far west to cash in on the jackpot...but would be nice to see some double digits just to our NE. At this point have to believe euro qpf is overdone. I like Mt Holly snow maps which are basically 6-8 and then double digits as you get to ny border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At this point have to believe euro qpf is overdone. I like Mt Holly snow maps which are basically 6-8 and then double digits as you get to ny border Don't kid yourself, assuming the 12z Euro holds serve or improves I think you will see those amounts doubled in a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The doubling (or more) of the amounts is likely....but the sharp cutoff that has sharpened even more( on the NAM) as you get to eastern PA is a little close for comfort. You will probably be fine.. Sussex/Warren may still cash in because of the longer duration frozen...you may even be in the NJ sweet spot...close enough for good ratios and high qpf. Don't kid yourself, assuming the 12z Euro holds serve or improves I think you will see those amounts doubled in a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 guidance coming in better and better for NNJ......trying to temper expectations, but hard not to get excited as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the 12z NAM is correct we all get buried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It is painful being so close but yet so far. These last two winters have been tough to take. This area hasn't been a sweet spot for a big snow since PD II. I will live vicariously through my friends north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z NAM text output MGJ -- 2.56" All Snow SWF -- 2.79" All Snow FWN -- 2.22" All Snow DXR -- 2.93" All Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z NAM text output MGJ -- 2.56" All Snow SWF -- 2.79" All Snow FWN -- 2.22" All Snow DXR -- 2.93" All Snow Thats bout 24-36 with a ratio of 12:1 usally, the NAM's QPF output could be cut down. Even cut in half, not bad.12z NAM spits 39.0" for KSWF http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z NAM text output MGJ -- 2.56" All Snow SWF -- 2.79" All Snow FWN -- 2.22" All Snow DXR -- 2.93" All Snow Thanks for posting that. I usually dont get to see kwn or MMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thats bout 24-36 with a ratio of 12:1 usally, the NAM's QPF output could be cut down. Even cut in half, not bad. 12z NAM spits 39.0" for KSWF http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kswf Those amounts are most likely overdone BUT even if you cut those in half you still end up with 12-18" which is probably the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks for posting that. I usually dont get to see kwn or MMU MMU -- 2.68" (Sleet/Snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Those amounts are most likely overdone BUT even if you cut those in half you still end up with 12-18" which is probably the most likely outcome. I agree that its likely over done but did you also see how the temps take a nose dive on the NAM? That would drive up ratios for sure for later in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree that its likley over done but did you also see how the temps take a nose dive on the NAM? That would drive up ratios for sure for later in the storm. In some of these bands the ratios could be insane. Surface temps in the teens with 850s around -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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