golfer67 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12Z NAM looks a bit colder up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 2:37 PM, IrishRob17 said: Shows you how bad things have been lately when 1-2" is bullish. lol.. Yeah I was gonna mention that. Nonetheless the ice being predicted for northern parts is potentially serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 2:47 PM, sn0w said: 12Z NAM looks a bit colder up here... The only reason why I would take the NAM seriously right now is cause its trending toward the colder euro. Other than that its a joke.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 3:00 PM, snywx said: The only reason why I would take the NAM seriously right now is cause its trending toward the colder euro. Other than that its a joke.. Nam, euro and 6z rgem are colder for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nam shows a nice front end dump for nw jersey as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z NAM snowfall maps actually show accumulating snows from Rt. 78 northward. It actually has high end advisory snowfall from about KMMU northward. Even Bergan County gets into 1-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 12z NAM wasn't far away from showing a major paste job for the interior. As it is, the heaviest precip arrives just as the cold air is moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z nam snow maps have my area getting 6-8, and 8-10 over the higher, 1,800-2,000 feet elevated plateau. I have a hard time buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 3:25 PM, PoconoSnow said: 12z nam snow maps have my area getting 6-8, and 8-10 over the higher, 1,800-2,000 feet elevated plateau. I have a hard time buying that. use this one, at least a little more reasonable http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_60HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 3:40 PM, rgwp96 said: use this one, at least a little more reasonable http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_60HR.gif That was the map I was using lol. Noticed majority of the Pocono above 1,000 feet is in the 6-8. That blue 8-10 is the higher plateau regions of the Poconos in my county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The NAM's precip. output looks a little ridiculous as usual. Maybe suffering from convectice feedback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 12z GFS is not nearly as enthused as the NAM with the snowfall. Restricts the accumulating snows to Orange County northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 4:07 PM, H2Otown_WX said: The NAM's precip. output looks a little ridiculous as usual. Maybe suffering from convectice feedback? The 12z GFS and 12z NAM are nearly identical as far as QPF is concerned. 1.00-1.25"+ area wide. In fact the GFS is actually a tad wetter from the city north and east with 2.0" + of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 4:12 PM, YanksFan27 said: The 12z GFS and 12z NAM are nearly identical as far as QPF is concerned. 1.00-1.25"+ area wide. In fact the GFS is actually a tad wetter from the city north and east with 2.0" + of rain. Yeah the GFS kind of drags out the precip. after 12z around here...has it lasting until 18z or maybe a little later. Not sure I buy that given the big burst of omega is between 06 and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer67 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hate these storms...going to be mostly pouring rain overnight/tomorrow morning with temps 33-35. Never good for us when you see the winter storm watches go up for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 4:02 PM, PoconoSnow said: That was the map I was using lol. Noticed majority of the Pocono above 1,000 feet is in the 6-8. That blue 8-10 is the higher plateau regions of the Poconos in my county. oh lol. thought u were using the one from here on the american board(Raleigh models) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 4:12 PM, YanksFan27 said: The 12z GFS and 12z NAM are nearly identical as far as QPF is concerned. 1.00-1.25"+ area wide. In fact the GFS is actually a tad wetter from the city north and east with 2.0" + of rain. The 06z and the 12z NAM numbers for QPF shows 0.75 at 06z vs. 0.85 for 12z for KSWF. The 12z came in colder with 4.8" of snow with the 06z showing 1.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The front end snow potential seems to be a bit too far north for me right now. The 12z RGEM gave northern NJ into snywx land a pretty nice front end paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 12z UKMET is also colder for this storm system than the GFS is. Looks like the NW Burbs get a nice thumping on the UKMET. GFS appears to be a warmer outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The Euro also seems colder than the GFS. GFS is the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z ECMWF appears to be cooler than the GFS by taking a glance at the Text Output on the 12z ECMWF. Not sure how it compares to the 00z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM has it snow for the overnight hours then to rain for KSWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 With the block getting itself together right now, things may continue to shift colder and further south so these areas to the nw could see a heavy dump of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer67 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 According to the New England thread on this storm...12z Euro was a lot colder than the GFS and colder than its 0z run....but they obviously discussed it's impact to New England. How did it look for Westchester/Putnam/Orange? Someone mentioned 850's don't get north of Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 12z ECMWF is definitely colder than the 00z run. At Hour 54 on the 00z run, the 850 0 C line is up by KMMU. At hour 42 on the 12z run, that 0 C line is south of SMQ. Pretty large tick colder. 2"+ for I-78 N and W on the ECMWF Accuweather Pro snowmaps. 6" by Sussex NJ, 3" by MMU, and 2" or so for SMQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer67 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:38 PM, Snowlover123 said: The 12z ECMWF is definitely colder than the 00z run. At Hour 54 on the 00z run, the 850 0 C line is up by KMMU. At hour 42 on the 12z run, that 0 C line is south of SMQ. Pretty large tick colder. 2"+ for I-78 N and W on the ECMWF Accuweather Pro snowmaps. Thanks....that's insane how different the GFS and Euro are this close to gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:41 PM, sn0w said: Thanks....that's insane how different the GFS and Euro are this close to gametime. You're welcome. It has close to 6 inches of snow for you in Putnam county.. this is definitely going to be interesting for the NW Burbs. As Jetski said, I wouldn't be surprised if this continues to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:45 PM, Snowlover123 said: You're welcome. It has close to 6 inches of snow for you in Putnam county.. this is definitely going to be interesting for the NW Burbs. As Jetski said, I wouldn't be surprised if this continues to trend colder. How is it looking for areas up here north of Sussex NJ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:47 PM, snywx said: How is it looking for areas up here north of Sussex NJ ? Close to 9 inches up by Middletown per the Accuweather Pro ECMWF snowmaps. Pretty remarkable differences in the forecast guidance right now thermally actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 On 2/25/2013 at 7:50 PM, Snowlover123 said: Close to 9 inches up by Middletown per the Accuweather Pro ECMWF snowmaps. Pretty remarkable differences in the forecast guidance right now thermally actually. Nice.. Thanks bro Always a beautiful thing when Dr. No is on your side lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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