earthlight Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Actually shows.. 05-.10 throughout Northern New Jersey, Long Island, NYC, Southeast New York and Connecticut. Precip max of. 10 over Warren, Morris and Northern Somerset counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I'll take it. To have a half an inch to an inch of snow...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 26 degrees in NYC with .08" of precip. That can be up to an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Looks like GFS agrees http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 NAM just came in with the highest totals yet, from any model with this storm for our area, early on Sunday morning and this is with temps well below freezing in most areas. .05 - Asbury Park (Burlington-Monmouth Airport) .09 - Somerville .11 - Andover .11 - Newark .11 - Sussex .12 - Morristown .12 - NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 When is the snow supposed to fall? 1am-7am - Technically- Sunday Morning? as in Late Saturday Night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 NAM just came in with the highest totals yet, from any model with this storm for our area, early on Sunday morning and this is with temps well below freezing in most areas. .05 - Asbury Park (Burlington-Monmouth Airport) .09 - Somerville .11 - Andover .11 - Newark .11 - Sussex .12 - Morristown .12 - NYC Assuming 14:1 ratios over most of the area that would be a solid 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Assuming 14:1 ratios over most of the area that would be a solid 1-2" If the NYC stations or EWR and TEB achieve 14:1 ratios I'd be shocked. HPN and MMU may get there but doubtful south or east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 If the NYC stations or EWR and TEB achieve 14:1 ratios I'd be shocked. HPN and MMU may get there but doubtful south or east of that. You'll be lucky to see more than flurries in the city with such light precip. My main concern is areas in Northern NJ, where the highest totals happen to be combined with the coldest temps over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 12z NAM totals per the Bufkit site data KMMU - 0.11" total precip = 1.4" of snow KLGA - 0.14" total precip = 1.6" of snow KHPN - 0.14" total precip = 2.0" of snow thanks to 15:1 ratios KJFK - 0.15" total precip = 1.7" of snow KEWR - 0.11" total precip = 1.3" of snow KTTN - 0.10" total precip = 1.0" of snow KPHL - 0.04" total precip = 0.4" of snow KACY - 0.00" total precip = 0.0" of snow RUTG - 0.12" total precip = 1.4" of snow KSWF - 0.10" total precip = 1.9" of snow thanks to 18:1 & 19:1 ratios For the record - the 06z NAM showed nothing over the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 12z GGEM and Ukie have most of the precip north of the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 26 degrees in NYC with .08" of precip. That can be up to an inch of snow. it's overdone and an inch of snow isn't worth anyone's time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 12z euro is .05 or a little more for us Saturday night. Wettest run I have seen. Still nothing to brag about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 12z euro is .05 or a little more for us Saturday night. Wettest run I have seen. Still nothing to brag about It's above .05" for ACY and south and into BWI. For the NYC area it's very dry. Soundings only show .02" for NYC and .03" for EWR .09" at ACY; .05" at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Its not going to amount to much unless the NAM is right. But it would be nice to see some flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 It's above .05" for ACY and south and into DC. For the NYC area it's very dry. Soundings only show .02" for NYC and .03" for EWR .09" at ACY. I have a area of .05 in north jersey on SV maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I have a area of .05 in north jersey on SV maps Yes. There is a little pocket of .05" for extreme northern NJ and into the Hudson Valley. But for EWR and NYC itself it's very dry. The best precip is down by ACY to BWI and west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Its not going to amount to much unless the NAM is right. But it would be nice to see some flakes in the air. Unless you are staying up from 2am to 5am, then no one will see flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Euro is above average for NYC from Sunday to Wednesday. And then a full blowtorch Thursday to Sunday with temps approaching 60+ degrees on Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Euro is above average for NYC from Sunday to Wednesday. And then a full blowtorch Thursday to Sunday with temps approaching 60+ degrees on Friday and Saturday. Sounds Beautiful... Lighten up my Heating bill... Screw the cold weather.. If it's NEVER going to produce, I can live w/o it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Sounds Beautiful... Lighten up my Heating bill... Screw the cold weather.. If it's NEVER going to produce, I can live w/o it! Eeesh. Every time I see someone post this I just shake my head in utter disappointment. Can't allow the warmth to dampen the winter spirit that lives within. One must keep the flame alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Eeesh. Every time I see someone post this I just shake my head in utter disappointment. Can't allow the warmth to dampen the winter spirit that lives within. One must keep the flame alive. Warm temps = warm ocean. And for the coast, that's trouble. We need the temps to be as cold as possible and for as long as possible. Even if it's dry. The warm ocean is the reason why Dec. 24 + 26 kept the snow accumulations down near the coast. Dec. 29th was more of the dynamics and lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 If the NYC stations or EWR and TEB achieve 14:1 ratios I'd be shocked. HPN and MMU may get there but doubtful south or east of that. With a SLP over the Lakes and temps above -10C below 700mb, I wouldn't assume anything better than 10:1. Forecast modeled snow growth looks poor. Surface temps are not the key to ratios. But sub freezing temps certainly would determine which surfaces the little bit of snow sticks to. A few of the GEFS members produce around a tenth of an inch liquid near the tristate, esp N&W. It's worth watching to see if QPF gradually increases. Regardless, there is not much moisture with this s/w and it will be a quick burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Warm temps = warm ocean. And for the coast, that's trouble. We need the temps to be as cold as possible and for as long as possible. Even if it's dry. The warm ocean is the reason why Dec. 24 + 26 kept the snow accumulations down near the coast. Dec. 29th was more of the dynamics and lack of precip. I don't think regional temps have anything to do with ocean temps. It takes a gigantic amount of energy to heat the oceans. Ocean temps are a global scale phenomenon. Not a synoptic or regional scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 I don't think regional temps have anything to do with ocean temps. It takes a gigantic amount of energy to heat the oceans. Ocean temps are a global scale phenomenon. Not a synoptic or regional scale. Heat anomalies might not raise the ocean temps too much but I GUARANTEE you they aren't going to lower it. You need snow or cold air to lower the temps rapidly this time of year. In the beginning of winter/fall, the ocean temp falls sharply simply because of the loss of daylight. Being that I fish a lot, I follow SSTs for the LI Sound and the ocean closely and I see 2-3 degree temp changes in 1 day very frequently. It makes a huge difference for the north shore of LI and NYC if the LI sound is 41 degrees, or if it's 35 degrees; especially on light events with northerly or easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 SST are affected pretty fast by warmth or cold. Especially snow. Being I fish a lot, I follow SST for the LI Sound and the ocean, I see 2-3 degree temp changes in 1 day very frequently. It makes a huge difference for the north shore of LI and NYC if the LI sound is 41 degrees, or if it's 35 degrees, on light events with northerly or easterly winds. Wind direction can make a difference, and even rain/snowfall. But only temporarily. And primarily in isolated inlets and bays (or potentially in LI sound for example). Mixing with open ocean will quickly return temps to previous levels. The Oceans are a huge thermal heat source that is unaffected by daily temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Hope the Euro is right. Would be great running weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Being that I fish a lot, I follow SSTs for the LI Sound and the ocean closely and I see 2-3 degree temp changes in 1 day very frequently. It makes a huge difference for the north shore of LI and NYC if the LI sound is 41 degrees, or if it's 35 degrees; especially on light events with northerly or easterly winds. Take into consideration of the size of the LI sound. It's a small body of water. Meaning it can cool fast and warm fast. The Long Island sound does little to LI climate during the winter. Look at the Oct. 29th, 2011 storm, the LI sound was in the low 60's! And it still snowed. We didn't pick up as much snow as the rest, but we still got a dusting with 60 degree water temps. So if the water temps are in the 40's, I see no problem for it not to snow and at least pick up a few inches. It's size demeanors its effects. The ocean south and east of LI is what changes our climate more than the LI sound. Ocean temps are in the mid 40's right now, a little bit above average, and almost the same as last year's. We were still able to pick up several inches of snow on the Jan 21st, 2012 storm with similar water temps. It's the dynamics of the storm, can't blame the difference between rain or snow all on the LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Take into consideration of the size of the LI sound. It's a small body of water. Meaning it can cool fast and warm fast. The Long Island sound does little to LI climate during the winter. Look at the Oct. 29th, 2011 storm, the LI sound was in the low 60's! And it still snowed. We didn't pick up as much snow as the rest, but we still got a dusting with 60 degree water temps. So if the water temps are in the 40's, I see no problem for it not to snow and at least pick up a few inches. It's size demeanors its effects. The ocean south and east of LI is what changes our climate more than the LI sound. Ocean temps are in the mid 40's right now, a little bit above average, and almost the same as last year's. We were still able to pick up several inches of snow on the Jan 21st, 2012 storm with similar water temps. It's the dynamics of the storm, can't blame the difference between rain or snow all on the LI sound. LI Sound was the reason LI got very little snow (and areas along the sound got nothing) in October 2011. It can help us in the winter and spring, but make no mistake that were it not for the sound we'd have had quite a snowstorm like others did that time. Living near the sound, I can tell you that we have a later first frost than the southern half of the island on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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