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Storm threat (Early Jan) 1/4 - 1/6


SACRUS

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NAM just came in with the highest totals yet, from any model with this storm for our area, early on Sunday morning and this is with temps well below freezing in most areas. 

 

.05 - Asbury Park (Burlington-Monmouth Airport)

.09 - Somerville

.11 - Andover

.11 - Newark

.11 - Sussex

.12 - Morristown

.12 - NYC

 

 

 

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NAM just came in with the highest totals yet, from any model with this storm for our area, early on Sunday morning and this is with temps well below freezing in most areas. 

 

.05 - Asbury Park (Burlington-Monmouth Airport)

.09 - Somerville

.11 - Andover

.11 - Newark

.11 - Sussex

.12 - Morristown

.12 - NYC

Assuming 14:1 ratios over most of the area that would be a solid 1-2"

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If the NYC stations or EWR and TEB achieve 14:1 ratios I'd be shocked. HPN and MMU may get there but doubtful south or east of that.

You'll be lucky to see more than flurries in the city with such light precip. My main concern is areas in Northern NJ, where the highest totals happen to be combined with the coldest temps over the region.

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12z NAM totals per the Bufkit site data

KMMU - 0.11" total precip = 1.4" of snow

KLGA - 0.14" total precip = 1.6" of snow

KHPN - 0.14" total precip = 2.0" of snow thanks to 15:1 ratios

KJFK - 0.15" total precip = 1.7" of snow

KEWR - 0.11" total precip = 1.3" of snow

KTTN - 0.10" total precip = 1.0" of snow

KPHL - 0.04" total precip = 0.4" of snow

KACY - 0.00" total precip = 0.0" of snow

RUTG - 0.12" total precip = 1.4" of snow

KSWF - 0.10" total precip = 1.9" of snow thanks to 18:1 & 19:1 ratios

For the record - the 06z NAM showed nothing over the entire area

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12z euro is .05 or a little more for us Saturday night. Wettest run I have seen. Still nothing to brag about

 

 

It's above .05" for ACY and south and into BWI.

For the NYC area it's very dry.

Soundings only show .02" for NYC and .03" for EWR

.09" at ACY; .05" at BWI

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I have a area of .05 in north jersey on SV maps

 

 

Yes. There is a little pocket of .05" for extreme northern NJ and into the Hudson Valley.

But for EWR and NYC itself it's very dry.

The best precip is down by ACY to BWI and west of there.

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Euro is above average for NYC from Sunday to Wednesday. And then a full blowtorch Thursday to Sunday with temps approaching 60+ degrees on Friday and Saturday.

 

Sounds Beautiful... Lighten up my Heating bill... Screw the cold weather.. If it's NEVER going to produce, I can live w/o it!

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Sounds Beautiful... Lighten up my Heating bill... Screw the cold weather.. If it's NEVER going to produce, I can live w/o it!

 

 

 

Eeesh. Every time I see someone post this I just shake my head in utter disappointment. Can't allow the warmth to dampen the winter spirit that lives within. One must keep the flame alive.

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Eeesh. Every time I see someone post this I just shake my head in utter disappointment. Can't allow the warmth to dampen the winter spirit that lives within. One must keep the flame alive.

 

Warm temps = warm ocean. And for the coast, that's trouble.

We need the temps to be as cold as possible and for as long as possible. Even if it's dry.

 

The warm ocean is the reason why Dec. 24 + 26 kept the snow accumulations down near the coast.

Dec. 29th was more of the dynamics and lack of precip.

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If the NYC stations or EWR and TEB achieve 14:1 ratios I'd be shocked. HPN and MMU may get there but doubtful south or east of that.

 

With a SLP over the Lakes and temps above -10C below 700mb, I wouldn't assume anything better than 10:1.  Forecast modeled snow growth looks poor.  Surface temps are not the key to ratios.  But sub freezing temps certainly would determine which surfaces the little bit of snow sticks to.

 

A few of the GEFS members produce around a tenth of an inch liquid near the tristate, esp N&W.  It's worth watching to see if QPF gradually increases.  Regardless, there is not much moisture with this s/w and it will be a quick burst.

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Warm temps = warm ocean. And for the coast, that's trouble.

We need the temps to be as cold as possible and for as long as possible. Even if it's dry.

 

The warm ocean is the reason why Dec. 24 + 26 kept the snow accumulations down near the coast.

Dec. 29th was more of the dynamics and lack of precip.

 

I don't think regional temps have anything to do with ocean temps.  It takes a gigantic amount of energy to heat the oceans.  Ocean temps are a global scale phenomenon.  Not a synoptic or regional scale.

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I don't think regional temps have anything to do with ocean temps.  It takes a gigantic amount of energy to heat the oceans.  Ocean temps are a global scale phenomenon.  Not a synoptic or regional scale.

 

Heat anomalies might not raise the ocean temps too much but I GUARANTEE you they aren't going to lower it. You need snow or cold air to lower the temps rapidly this time of year. In the beginning of winter/fall, the ocean temp falls sharply simply because of the loss of daylight.

Being that I fish a lot, I follow SSTs for the LI Sound and the ocean closely and I see 2-3 degree temp changes in 1 day very frequently.

 

It makes a huge difference for the north shore of LI and NYC if the LI sound is 41 degrees, or if it's 35 degrees; especially on light events with northerly or easterly winds.

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SST are affected pretty fast by warmth or cold. Especially snow.

Being I fish a lot, I follow SST for the LI Sound and the ocean, I see 2-3 degree temp changes in 1 day very frequently.

 

It makes a huge difference for the north shore of LI and NYC if the LI sound is 41 degrees, or if it's 35 degrees, on light events with northerly or easterly winds.

 

Wind direction can make a difference, and even rain/snowfall.  But only temporarily.  And primarily in isolated inlets and bays (or potentially in LI sound for example).  Mixing with open ocean will quickly return temps to previous levels.  The Oceans are a huge thermal heat source that is unaffected by daily temperatures.

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Being that I fish a lot, I follow SSTs for the LI Sound and the ocean closely and I see 2-3 degree temp changes in 1 day very frequently.

 

It makes a huge difference for the north shore of LI and NYC if the LI sound is 41 degrees, or if it's 35 degrees; especially on light events with northerly or easterly winds.

 

Take into consideration of the size of the LI sound. It's a small body of water. Meaning it can cool fast and warm fast. The Long Island sound does little to LI climate during the winter. Look at the Oct. 29th, 2011 storm, the LI sound was in the low 60's! And it still snowed. We didn't pick up as much snow as the rest, but we still got a dusting with 60 degree water temps. So if the water temps are in the 40's, I see no problem for it not to snow and at least pick up a few inches. It's size demeanors its effects. The ocean south and east of LI is what changes our climate more than the LI sound. Ocean temps are in the mid 40's right now, a little bit above average, and almost the same as last year's. We were still able to pick up several inches of snow on the Jan 21st, 2012 storm with similar water temps. It's the dynamics of the storm, can't blame the difference between rain or snow all on the LI sound.

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Take into consideration of the size of the LI sound. It's a small body of water. Meaning it can cool fast and warm fast. The Long Island sound does little to LI climate during the winter. Look at the Oct. 29th, 2011 storm, the LI sound was in the low 60's! And it still snowed. We didn't pick up as much snow as the rest, but we still got a dusting with 60 degree water temps. So if the water temps are in the 40's, I see no problem for it not to snow and at least pick up a few inches. It's size demeanors its effects. The ocean south and east of LI is what changes our climate more than the LI sound. Ocean temps are in the mid 40's right now, a little bit above average, and almost the same as last year's. We were still able to pick up several inches of snow on the Jan 21st, 2012 storm with similar water temps. It's the dynamics of the storm, can't blame the difference between rain or snow all on the LI sound.

 

LI Sound was the reason LI got very little snow (and areas along the sound got nothing) in October 2011.  It can help us in the winter and spring, but make no mistake that were it not for the sound we'd have had quite a snowstorm like others did that time.

 

Living near the sound, I can tell you that we have a later first frost than the southern half of the island on average.

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