CooL Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The gradient favorable for clipper systems is too far north this time. Loop through the 18z GFS and keep your eye on Northern New England. There are 4 or 5 clipper systems between now and 180 hours alone. http://www.meteo.psu...8z/avnloop.html Should keep us on the cold side with reinforcement but there is really nothing to get one of those clipper to dig south. Maybe we can get lucky who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Should keep us on the cold side with reinforcement but there is really nothing to get one of those clipper to dig south. Maybe we can get lucky who knows. These cold patterns love to produce threats out of nowhere. Part of the problem is that these shortwaves are moving so fast in such an active flow, that the models have a tremendous amount of trouble figuring out the individual nuances IRT the disturbances. We could see a strong shortwave pop up out of nowhere, who knows. What's annoying me the most is the nice PNA spike that we're essentially wasting. Because the mean trough axis is basically in the NW Atlantic, any disturbance that drops down will amplify but will then just slide eastward pretty fast. Once the PNA spike retreats, the pattern looks very zonal on the medium range progs and will probably be a little less favorable until the PV splits and realigns again for late January. So in essence...the pattern change that myself and a few others were forecasting around Dec 20 happened right on schedule. The cold air is here...we had a snow threat or two. But we're likely looking at some bad timing and positioning over the next week..and then we have to reshuffle things again. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The gradient favorable for clipper systems is too far north this time. Loop through the 18z GFS and keep your eye on Northern New England. There are 4 or 5 clipper systems between now and 180 hours alone. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html I see what you're referring to but it also seems like their are several that make their way through the GL that ultimately fizzle out before getting this far east. Any realistic chance that one of those come in stronger than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What ever happened to a good old fashioned clipper? Seems like an eternity since we've had one roll through here and give us a few inches. Isn't this pattern ideal for such an event? I remember in the crappy 91-92 winter we had tons of clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I remember in the crappy 91-92 winter we had tons of clippers 1993-94 had a few clippers...One in late December put down 4"...One in late January with another 4"...One at the end of February gave us an inch...One on March 18th with 3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I believe Jan 2010 was the last time we saw a clipper, two weeks before Snowmageddon, NYC screw job, whatever it was called. It pasted me with 16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 These cold patterns love to produce threats out of nowhere. Part of the problem is that these shortwaves are moving so fast in such an active flow, that the models have a tremendous amount of trouble figuring out the individual nuances IRT the disturbances. We could see a strong shortwave pop up out of nowhere, who knows. What's annoying me the most is the nice PNA spike that we're essentially wasting. Because the mean trough axis is basically in the NW Atlantic, any disturbance that drops down will amplify but will then just slide eastward pretty fast. Once the PNA spike retreats, the pattern looks very zonal on the medium range progs and will probably be a little less favorable until the PV splits and realigns again for late January. So in essence...the pattern change that myself and a few others were forecasting around Dec 20 happened right on schedule. The cold air is here...we had a snow threat or two. But we're likely looking at some bad timing and positioning over the next week..and then we have to reshuffle things again. We'll see. Yeah our idea for the more wintry pattern post Dec 20th has verified but unfortunately the 5% of the Northeast that currently doesn't have snow cover includes where much of our posters live, NYC, LI, CNJ, etc. The EPO is now slightly negative and the PNA will remain positive for another week at least, keeping the PV fairly far south in Canada and the Northeast chilly. However, we're not really into the Arctic air full-bore, and the clipper tracks look to favor New England at least at this point. I do agree that waves can appear in a cold pattern, but that's not to say it'll happen this time, as we've seen plenty of cold/dry regimes. I'm glad that most of the NYC area had some accum snow this Christmas week, I just hope we can pull a legitimate, widespread, untainted 3-6" snowstorm soon. For the sake of my sanity as well. I'm not asking much, just 3-6", which isn't even warning criteria. I had my 12" event already in November, so I guess I can't be greedy and demand another (naahhh, who am I kidding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anyone see the UKMET tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Here is 120 on the Ukie http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The 00Z UKMET has an unusually late phase from HR 120 to HR 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 The 00Z UKMET has an unusually late phase from HR 120 to HR 144. Not really, it's just a miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Not really, it's just a miller A I think I was looking at the wrong frame. It looks to be from HR 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 euro trended towards the UKie a bit. OFFshore with the low, but the h5 flow @ 70-90 changes drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 the precip out west is covering a large chunk of real estate and moving east -- to the untrained eye you would think we were in for quite a storm - = ashame its all going to miss us............ http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default®ion=SHD&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 the precip out west is covering a large chunk of real estate and moving east -- to the untrained eye you would think we were in for quite a storm - = ashame its all going to miss us............ http://www.intellica...HD&animate=true It's a shame that the confluence will eat up the precip. We have a threat of snow showers tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I like the satellite image this morning...Maybe we can squeeze a few flakes out of this... http://www.weather.gov/satellite?image=ir&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I like the satellite image this morning...Maybe we can squeeze a few flakes out of this... http://www.weather.g...age=ir&hours=24 how much of this is actually hitting the ground and the APPS are going to act like a big filter once it approaches us http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Radar looks really nice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Radar looks really nice . It's supposed to look great but fall apart. All models agree on that, unfortunately. We could get flurries tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It's supposed to look great but fall apart. All models agree on that, unfortunately. We could get flurries tho Hopefully it doesn't fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Hopefully it doesn't fall apart. explain why it won't ? here is what is actually hitting the ground in our area http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 explain why it won't ? here is what is actually hitting the ground in our area http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 It will but flurries or even a light snow shower can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Crickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Verga baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Non threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Too bad, so sad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 So sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Hopefully march can deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Gfs and euro paint an awful start to the new year. Gonna be dead around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The euro at 132 seems too look a little more organized off to our south and east than in recent days , then after running light precip through our area it weakens it . Sunday is 5 days out , maybe in the next day or 2 we can get this a bit tighter , Cause after its sleepy time for 2 to 3 weeks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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