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Storm threat (Early Jan) 1/4 - 1/6


SACRUS

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The gradient favorable for clipper systems is too far north this time. Loop through the 18z GFS and keep your eye on Northern New England. There are 4 or 5 clipper systems between now and 180 hours alone.

http://www.meteo.psu...8z/avnloop.html

Should keep us on the cold side with reinforcement but there is really nothing to get one of those clipper to dig south. Maybe we can get lucky who knows.

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Should keep us on the cold side with reinforcement but there is really nothing to get one of those clipper to dig south. Maybe we can get lucky who knows.

These cold patterns love to produce threats out of nowhere. Part of the problem is that these shortwaves are moving so fast in such an active flow, that the models have a tremendous amount of trouble figuring out the individual nuances IRT the disturbances. We could see a strong shortwave pop up out of nowhere, who knows.

What's annoying me the most is the nice PNA spike that we're essentially wasting. Because the mean trough axis is basically in the NW Atlantic, any disturbance that drops down will amplify but will then just slide eastward pretty fast. Once the PNA spike retreats, the pattern looks very zonal on the medium range progs and will probably be a little less favorable until the PV splits and realigns again for late January.

So in essence...the pattern change that myself and a few others were forecasting around Dec 20 happened right on schedule. The cold air is here...we had a snow threat or two. But we're likely looking at some bad timing and positioning over the next week..and then we have to reshuffle things again. We'll see.

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The gradient favorable for clipper systems is too far north this time. Loop through the 18z GFS and keep your eye on Northern New England. There are 4 or 5 clipper systems between now and 180 hours alone.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html

I see what you're referring to but it also seems like their are several that make their way through the GL that ultimately fizzle out before getting this far east. Any realistic chance that one of those come in stronger than modeled?

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These cold patterns love to produce threats out of nowhere. Part of the problem is that these shortwaves are moving so fast in such an active flow, that the models have a tremendous amount of trouble figuring out the individual nuances IRT the disturbances. We could see a strong shortwave pop up out of nowhere, who knows.

What's annoying me the most is the nice PNA spike that we're essentially wasting. Because the mean trough axis is basically in the NW Atlantic, any disturbance that drops down will amplify but will then just slide eastward pretty fast. Once the PNA spike retreats, the pattern looks very zonal on the medium range progs and will probably be a little less favorable until the PV splits and realigns again for late January.

So in essence...the pattern change that myself and a few others were forecasting around Dec 20 happened right on schedule. The cold air is here...we had a snow threat or two. But we're likely looking at some bad timing and positioning over the next week..and then we have to reshuffle things again. We'll see.

Yeah our idea for the more wintry pattern post Dec 20th has verified but unfortunately the 5% of the Northeast that currently doesn't have snow cover includes where much of our posters live, NYC, LI, CNJ, etc.

The EPO is now slightly negative and the PNA will remain positive for another week at least, keeping the PV fairly far south in Canada and the Northeast chilly. However, we're not really into the Arctic air full-bore, and the clipper tracks look to favor New England at least at this point.

I do agree that waves can appear in a cold pattern, but that's not to say it'll happen this time, as we've seen plenty of cold/dry regimes. I'm glad that most of the NYC area had some accum snow this Christmas week, I just hope we can pull a legitimate, widespread, untainted 3-6" snowstorm soon. For the sake of my sanity as well. I'm not asking much, just 3-6", which isn't even warning criteria. I had my 12" event already in November, so I guess I can't be greedy and demand another (naahhh, who am I kidding).

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the precip out west is covering a large chunk of real estate and moving east -- to the untrained eye you would think we were in for quite a storm - = ashame its all going to miss us............

http://www.intellica...HD&animate=true

It's a shame that the confluence will eat up the precip. We have a threat of snow showers tomorrow though.

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The euro at 132 seems too look a little more organized off to our south and east than in recent days , then after running light precip through our area it weakens it . Sunday is 5 days out , maybe in the next day or 2 we can get this a bit tighter , Cause after its sleepy time for 2 to 3 weeks .

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