Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That 2nd panel there is the classic SW open wave I talked about a few days back, thats our best shot at snows in a pattern where you otherwise won't get a good coastal low. Relatively weak low to the west running into a high over southern Canada and the low not being so strong it floods the mid levels or boundary layer with warmth. Usually can pull 4-8 inches out in those types of events. Would definitely prefer a classic setup though given the cold air we may have in place. Any chance of a re-develop again along the coast, like with the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That 2nd panel there is the classic SW open wave I talked about a few days back, thats our best shot at snows in a pattern where you otherwise won't get a good coastal low. Relatively weak low to the west running into a high over southern Canada and the low not being so strong it floods the mid levels or boundary layer with warmth. Usually can pull 4-8 inches out in those types of events. Would definitely prefer a classic setup though given the cold air we may have in place. the 144hr panel looks like it wants to transfer to the coast...maybe miller b-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z GGEM hsa some seblance of a system similar to the UKmet in the Jan 5-7th timeframe. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/QQ_GZ_UU_VV_168_0500.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Part of forecasting is learning from past mistakes. It would be complete ignorance to dismiss any potential for later this week. The NW trend (obviously with a strong S/W to our west with each model run) was astounding. Each airmass, as others have noted, have been less cold, less potent than modeled and inherently allow systems to hedge further NW. This coming week is a perfect example of the marginality of these polar airmasses. Highs in the low 30's? For early January, that is nothing to write home about. The confluence has also been overdone on most of the NWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z Euro does not bring that storm out of the Gulf like the UKMET did, but there are still some significant changes on the model. It brings a strong piece of energy in off the Pacific at 168 hrs. into northern California that it left out in the Pacific last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It am just wondering if the Euro might be hanging the energy back in the southwest again too long starting at 72 hrs when the UKMET starts pulling it out of the southwest and the ECMWF seems to take it's time. It might be a stretch, but there were really some big changes on both models in the past 12 hours, so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 i appreciate all of the insight on this particular threat. still time to track it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm not expecting anything during this time period. I'm more interested in the 7th-11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Part of forecasting is learning from past mistakes. It would be complete ignorance to dismiss any potential for later this week. The NW trend (obviously with a strong S/W to our west with each model run) was astounding. Each airmass, as others have noted, have been less cold, less potent than modeled and inherently allow systems to hedge further NW. This coming week is a perfect example of the marginality of these polar airmasses. Highs in the low 30's? For early January, that is nothing to write home about. The confluence has also been overdone on most of the NWP. i like it... we've had just enough confluence for the NW folks so far, but as we get further into Jan does the confluence strengthen/sink for the rest of the coverage area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm not expecting anything during this time period. I'm more interested in the 7th-11th. That is kind of what we are talking about here. The British model shows a possible threat here around Saturday the 5th or Sunday the 6th. It is possible this one could slow down a bit and somewhat be what you are looking for, there are just too many questions right now with timing and placement. The British and Euro just made some pretty significant changes after day 5 and 6 in their runs. Who knows what the reality will be? Just something to keep an eye on. I just don't believe that all hope is lost for something toward the end of next week at all. Neither am I convinced something will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This was before the afternoon models came out, but anyway, this was interesting: THE COLD MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD PRODUCE SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL MAINLY IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST...UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1102 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 VALID 12Z WED JAN 02 2013 - 12Z SUN JAN 06 2013 ...BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... CHANGES TAKING PLACE DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD BRING US TO A SPLIT FLOW SETUP IN THE WEST BY DAY 3. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW IN MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE MADE A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE VIA OCCASIONAL RELEADING PERFORMED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL SKIRT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...TOP THE RIDGE...AND THEN DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST. RAINFALL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM...WITH REALLY ONLY THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. REMAINING IN PLAY FOR RAINFALL ON DAYS 4/5. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHOVE THE POLAR FRONT FARTHER INTO THE GULF...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER OVER THE BULK OF THE NATION BY DAYS 5-7. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF UNCERTAINY IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE DEPTH THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE IN THE MIDWEST...AND THE HANDLING OF SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST. THOUGH CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ABSENT OR GREATLY LIMITED BY A STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD AND STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR...THE COLD MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD PRODUCE SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL MAINLY IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST...UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. ...MODEL CHOICE... ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT UPON THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE...THERE ARE MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL AT ONE TIME AND PLACE OR ANOTHER...BUT NOT ONE RUN DOES A GOOD JOB THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF FINALLY TRENDED A LITTLE LESS AGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW INTO CALIFORNIA DAY 3/4...BUT IT IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER...SUPPORTED BY ONLY A HANDFUL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WE PREFER TO TAKE A LESSER AMPLIFIED SYSTEM OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS THE UKMET AND GFS DO. TOWARD DAY 6/7...THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE SLOWER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE OPERATIONAL BEING PARTICULARLY STRONG/DEEP/SLOW. WE PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE LOOK OF THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THIS IDEA ALSO HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET AND CANADIAN. BURKE/FRACASSO/VOJTESAK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Really progressive look right now. The PV is just eating it up, the PNA gets beat down fast, and there is no NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Really progressive look right now. The PV is just eating it up, the PNA gets beat down fast, and there is no NAO. We've yet to see the big NAO block this winter that we had in 09-10 and 10-11. There's been at times blocking over Central Canada, but not attaining a high enough latitude to be like the Feb 2010 or Dec 2010 blocks. The 12z Euro wants to beat down the PNA ridge more than the 12z GFS in the long-range, leading to much warmer air spreading from the country's midsection east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 We've yet to see the big NAO block this winter that we had in 09-10 and 10-11. There's been at times blocking over Central Canada, but not attaining a high enough latitude to be like the Feb 2010 or Dec 2010 blocks. The 12z Euro wants to beat down the PNA ridge more than the 12z GFS in the long-range, leading to much warmer air spreading from the country's midsection east. Yeah. There has been tons a ridging up north but it was by no means classic and it barely even locked in a cold airmass. Im getting worried about the pattern going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yeah. There has been tons a ridging up north but it was by no means classic and it barely even locked in a cold airmass. Im getting worried about the pattern going forward Most of the cold air dumped into Eurasian this month with the blocking just as we saw in February 2012 when the -AO finally took place. I think we'll see a good pattern in a few weeks with the stratospheric warming, but I expect some warmer air in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This is a great pattern for shortwaves to just fly on by through our area and amplify well off to our east. That's why you're seeing the positively tilted shortwaves through the medium and long range on almost every model. Look where the best trough amplification is occurring. It's a shame that the timing is so poor with a nice PNA ridge out west. Can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The usually progressive NOGAPS now trends even further north and west at 18z with the late week threat. 18Z GFS is also trending further north - but at 54 hours http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The usually progressive NOGAPS now trends even further north and west at 18z with the late week threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 As I have been posting, this should not be a surprise. In fact, i would not be surprised if we were talking about mixing issues in 120 hrs. The overwhelmning trend this year has been to push systems further NW with time. May I also add that the Euro is out to lunch. It's having significant issues handling the stream of S/W and the southwest energy. It's nearly laughable. At 170 hrs, it finally moves a very healthy vort with a closed low (albeit short wavelength) which goes neurtal tilt, and there is NO surface reflection anywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Took a closer look at this whole situation. Look at the similarities between the 18z NOGAPS and the 12z UKMET. They both take the low out of the Gulf up to Kentucky as they bring a strong 500mb low into the center of the country. The NOGAPS then re-develops that low near the Carolina Coast and brings it Northeast as a weak Nor'easter. The UKMET only goes out to 144 hrs, but appears to me to be about ready to do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 As I have been posting, this should not be a surprise. In fact, i would not be surprised if we were talking about mixing issues in 120 hrs. The overwhelmning trend this year has been to push systems further NW with time. May I also add that the Euro is out to lunch. It's having significant issues handling the stream of S/W and the southwest energy. It's nearly laughable. At 170 hrs, it finally moves a very healthy vort with a closed low (albeit short wavelength) which goes neurtal tilt, and there is NO surface reflection anywhere! I agree, normally I am a huge fan and a model hugger of the ECMWF, but it's changes here in the last 12 hours were unreal. I was hesitant to believe the UKMET here either because it also made massive changes over the past 12 hours, but the NOGAPS now looks nearly identical, and has been trending north and west with the storm. We all know also that the ECMWF has known issues with hanging back energy in the southwest, and it hung back energy back off the Pacific on the 0z run completely off shore and now on this run it brings it inland at 168 hrs. If the ECMWF is indeed hanging back that energy, it would explain why the UKMET and NOGAPS are doing what they are doing. They both pull the energy out of the southwest and don't hang it back there as long as the ECMWF does, and that is our difference as far as I can tell. This is not an exact science though, and that is just my take on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Just pulled up the 144 hr ECMWF ensemble mean and it has a very weak low in a nearly identical spot over the Western Carolinas. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 As I have been posting, this should not be a surprise. In fact, i would not be surprised if we were talking about mixing issues in 120 hrs. The overwhelmning trend this year has been to push systems further NW with time. May I also add that the Euro is out to lunch. It's having significant issues handling the stream of S/W and the southwest energy. It's nearly laughable. At 170 hrs, it finally moves a very healthy vort with a closed low (albeit short wavelength) which goes neurtal tilt, and there is NO surface reflection anywhere! Its gonna take a miracle to have mixing issues, most models don't even have this thing in the same zipcode as Cape Hatteras or Norfolk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Its gonna take a miracle to have mixing issues, most models don't even have this thing in the same zipcode as Cape Hatteras or Norfolk now. It really is something how many storms end up having mixing issues or at least some potential for them...even the wonderful Blizzard of 1983...a classic storm with a frigid anticyclone perfectly placed over Quebec; and yet, on that Friday evening...sleet was reported as far north as McGuire Airfield in Lakehurst, New Jersey....maybe just 50 miles south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Just pulled up the 144 hr ECMWF ensemble mean and it has a very weak low in a nearly identical spot over the Western Carolinas. Interesting. I don't see anything interesting on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I don't see anything interesting on that map Just believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Just believe The topography of West Milford, NJ is extraordinary...so high up that many have developed nosebleeds from the extreme altitude...I got one too, when I stopped at a local bar in town...but mine was not elevation induced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 This is a great pattern for shortwaves to just fly on by through our area and amplify well off to our east. That's why you're seeing the positively tilted shortwaves through the medium and long range on almost every model. Look where the best trough amplification is occurring. It's a shame that the timing is so poor with a nice PNA ridge out west. Can't win them all. What ever happened to a good old fashioned clipper? Seems like an eternity since we've had one roll through here and give us a few inches. Isn't this pattern ideal for such an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Just believe Can't believe in a 1027mb low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What ever happened to a good old fashioned clipper? Seems like an eternity since we've had one roll through here and give us a few inches. Isn't this pattern ideal for such an event? The gradient favorable for clipper systems is too far north this time. Loop through the 18z GFS and keep your eye on Northern New England. There are 4 or 5 clipper systems between now and 180 hours alone. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.