WeatherX Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Did you intentionally cherry pick that image? Because there is this one too, 24 hours later that I was really talking about. Do I really need to give my reasoning? Not at all. I just think you should be careful with expectations. Caveat is that the pattern looks good, so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 its suppressed but the signal is there....phasing is off and the confluence over the NE crushes any climb up the coast but the energies are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Meh. It'll be cold for a while and when it's cold then you have to watch any threat for precip, so I'm sure we'll have something to track within a week or two, but I'm not seeing any huge threat for this particularly period/atmospheric impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Nam has a pretty sick look. 570 heights into canada with the western ridge with the southern stream down in mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Nam has some precip in our area next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Nam has some precip in our area next week. here is the link since you seem to never give us one http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Hope we can get something next week!!! Only got a dusting tonight in western Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Nam has a pretty sick look. 570 heights into canada with the western ridge with the southern stream down in mexico Sounds rather "Blocky". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The only way to get this storm up the coast as advertised on the GFS would be to have a phase between the two pieces of energy with one dropping pretty far south. The trough is too positively tilted otherwise with the confluence to the north. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The phase would need to happen around 96 hrs with that northern stream dropping in farther south http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 -mods delete this post please- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 If the Euro weeklies are right and your goint to pull the trof out the week after next , Our biggest systems usually come at the end of cold periods . Would be nice to send the trof out with a big system pulling it NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 So is it two pieces of energy? At least that's what it looks like on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 With my untrained eye, 135hr 500mb looks much better than 18z 141hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 With my untrained eye, 135hr 500mb looks much better than 18z 141hr. You should probably used your trained eye. It does look decent. But it is still kicking out the lead energy too fast and a weak low develops too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 If the GFS and now GGEM are right in sending a sharp trof through the upper midwest around day 4 there could be a threat in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. H5 looks ripe for a mid-atlantic storm. The strongest baroclinic zone is pushed pretty far south so it will be hard to get a SLP going in the southeast, but it will happen with a sharp enough trof and some good vorticity advection. We've seen the scenario before where the strong cutoff near Newfoundland pinches in two, with a double barrel vortex retrograding back toward Ontario and possibly southward into the developing trof. You have to use your imagination a bit, but this next week doesn't have to be suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Non event here for us folks no matter how hard people try to twist and pick only models that look positve but dismiss ones that do not - been a good week tho - will be another threat in 10-15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Non event here for us folks no matter how hard people try to twist and pick only models that look positve but dismiss ones that do not - been a good week tho - will be another threat in 10-15 days Agree. The ggem and gfs are both showing potential in the Jan. 7-8th timeframe. This is the next period to watch, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Non event here for us folks no matter how hard people try to twist and pick only models that look positve but dismiss ones that do not - been a good week tho - will be another threat in 10-15 days we're going to be entering a suppressed period for sure, but DC might bet a big storm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Agree. The ggem and gfs are both showing potential in the Jan. 7-8th timeframe. This is the next period to watch, IMO. The Euro Control Weeklies had shown a Massive Nor'easter at that time frame about 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 NOGAPS is the most amped up model right now for this event. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks dry for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That sucks!!!!! Also looks like our temps rebound to normal levels by next sat. To bad we couldn't get a storm when it was really cold... Hopefully we can get a storm after next week problem is by then our temps are in the 40's again and nyc metro will prob have to deal with mixing issues. I know that all depends on the storm track.. It's just unfortunate we couldn't pull something off whie our temps were so cold...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 When was it "so" cold.. Every cold air mass has been marginal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 CFSv2 shows a cold Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Sorry when I said so called I was referencing this coming week that's forecasted to be well below normal but dry!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The 12z Sunday UKMET shows a definitely different solution for next weekend. Not only is it not suppressed, it brings the storm up out of the Gulf to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 And here is the usually progressive NOGAPS for the possible late week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Non event here for us folks no matter how hard people try to twist and pick only models that look positve but dismiss ones that do not - been a good week tho - will be another threat in 10-15 days Latest UKMET says we have an event after all. Not sure what kind, but definitely not a non-event, unless it is wrong of course, but right now it is running in 2nd place behind only the Euro at 144 hrs. Let's see what the Euro has to say about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The UKMET shows a definitely different solution for next weekend. Not only is it not suppressed, it brings the storm up out of the Gulf to our west. That 2nd panel there is the classic SW open wave I talked about a few days back, thats our best shot at snows in a pattern where you otherwise won't get a good coastal low. Relatively weak low to the west running into a high over southern Canada and the low not being so strong it floods the mid levels or boundary layer with warmth. Usually can pull 4-8 inches out in those types of events. Would definitely prefer a classic setup though given the cold air we may have in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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