SACRUS Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z GFS seems to be in a good place with known gfs bias. http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z GFS had a bit of a slopply late phase, other than that, nice setup. Plenty of time to watch this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntingtonwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what does the euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what does the euro show? Not much, however the 06z DGEX had a nice solution for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Almost every member of the 06z GFS ensemble has a hit, including some big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Low in the Gulf at 144 hrs, just like the ECMWF, now if we could just get this up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Low in the Gulf at 144 hrs, just like the ECMWF, now if we could just get this up the coast. Really cold airmass over the Northeast too with -15C 850s pushing towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Snow bomb inbound on the gfs at 162. Phase...baby...phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Makes it to south Jersey again at 180 hrs. I honestly believe this one has massive potential for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You can see that it just missed the phase with that piece dropping down from Canada. We now know that we will likely have a low right in the middle of the Gulf next week and there will be a piece of energy dropping down from Canada. The question will be whether the two pieces will come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the northern stream is too quick or the low in the SW hangs back too much to get excited about this for much longer. there could be some overrunning out ahead of this but eventually it looks to get squashed to the SE. unless the gfs is wrong by having too much of a dominant northern stream and the euro is wrong by hanging the energy back in the SW, take the middle ground then we might have something if its timed well. progressive flow, no 50/50 ....timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z DGEX still wants to eject a piece of the ULL in the southwest. It was more robust at 06z but this is still a decent signal at this range. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f144.gif Also brings the motherload of cold air behind it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 00Z GFS gets some overrunning snows into S NJ before shearing the disturbance out...we're really sharing the wealth if we go interior storm, coastal storm, southern NJ/MA storm all in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 00Z GFS gets some overrunning snows into S NJ before shearing the disturbance out...we're really sharing the wealth if we go interior storm, coastal storm, southern NJ/MA storm all in a week. It looks like we could be entering a really active pattern in the next week or two if the models are correct in the medium range. Not only is the threat at 108 hr interesting if that vort were to trend any stronger (very common with shortwaves ejecting out of the southwest), but there's another bigger threat on the table almost immediately after that. This 150hr frame grabbed my attention immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro holds back the energy in the southwest. Typical euro bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ideal ridge out west at 144 hours. The phase between the 2 streams is a bit messy though, so its ots this run. Huge potential though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 PNA has been + for the past week and hadn't been + since Nov. 1. Of course, PNA continues to become more +, NAO also continues to move in a positive direction. AO is expected to drop again. Of course, once the Pacific begins to cooperate, the Atlantic begins to breakdown. Ideal ridge out west at 144 hours. The phase between the 2 streams is a bit messy though, so its ots this run. Huge potential though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I see a lot of overrunning potential and just because the NAO is positive doesn't mean we can't get big snows. While we may not see a sub 980 bomb with a +NAO, a +PNA and strong confluence and a very healthy widespread cold air mass could easily feature overrunning events with energy from the SW and gulf being ejected into the cold air mass. PD II was not a strong storm at all. If the moisture is significant enough, those events could put out a ton of snowfall despite a relatively weak storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I see a lot of overrunning potential and just because the NAO is positive doesn't mean we can't get big snows. While we may not see a sub 980 bomb with a +NAO, a +PNA and strong confluence and a very healthy widespread cold air mass could easily feature overrunning events with energy from the SW and gulf being ejected into the cold air mass. PD II was not a strong storm at all. If the moisture is significant enough, those events could put out a ton of snowfall despite a relatively weak storm system. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003/us0217.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro holds back the energy in the southwest. Typical euro bias. unfortunately most of the guidance holds it back as well...so i wouldnt discount its bias. this has the look of some overrunning snows, esp for the southern mid atlantic, then the whole thing eventually just shears out to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It looks like we could be entering a really active pattern in the next week or two if the models are correct in the medium range. Not only is the threat at 108 hr interesting if that vort were to trend any stronger (very common with shortwaves ejecting out of the southwest), but there's another bigger threat on the table almost immediately after that. This 150hr frame grabbed my attention immediately. yea, todays 12z shows the same....this can be huge. right now the timing is all off between the two waves but the potential is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Models are just screaming potential for next week. You have that low sitting down in the gulf and plenty of northern stream energy diving down through the mid-west. Just screams a trend towards a phase over the SE and big storm potential. Nice high pressure moving into SE Canada as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yep, displaced PV, Huge PNA spike, we could score a "big one" if everything falls in the right places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Divergence aloft won't be a problem if we can get the waves to congeal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z CMC is knocking on the door at the end of its run. Cut's off over the SW and then ejects a S/W just as the northern stream dives down. It's a little sloppy but the end result is a trough over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Models are just screaming potential for next week. You have that low sitting down in the gulf and plenty of northern stream energy diving down through the mid-west. Just screams a trend towards a phase over the SE and big storm potential. Nice high pressure moving into SE Canada as well. That is one impressive +PNA ridge! My concern is the lack of blocking in the atlantic and the orientation of the east coast trough. Could very well send the southern wave OTS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z Euro continues the theme of not ejecting the southern stream energy so we're basically left with freezing to death under the PV. It also has the cut-off in California which it doesn't seem to want to let go of either. I know earthlight talked about the GFS not closing off the low out there which would bode well for us so hopefully this is its bias at play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z Friday JMA is our biggest hit with this storm at the moment, it brings the storm northeast over night on Thursday from Georgia at 144 hrs, to Nova Scotia at 168 hrs, the .10-.25 line runs north to Southeast NY State and NE PA, and the .25-.50 runs north to Trenton and NYC, in a southeast to northwest orientation with the track of the low. Looks like a nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Heads up, the 18z GFS just brought back the shortwave in Manitoba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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