January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[mitchnick]

NAM could be an inch at JYO....fun

 

thicknesses are a tad on the higher side at the start for DCA/BWI area but it "should" be mostly snow (he says w/o confidence having not yet seen soundings)

[mitchnick]

BWI looks OK on soundings, but I'm a little surprised based on those 3 hr maps that total qpf is a paltry .04"

 

IAD gets .06 and .04" at DCA with "potential" bl issues

[usedtobe]

I'll leave others to getting excited about amybe seeing flurries to a dusting this weekend.  It's hard to get excited when the surface looks so crappy, plus dustings just don't do much for me. 

 

Today's D+11 offers a frigid look for the plains and midwest and suggests that beyond Day 11 we probably get a frontal passage and go below normal as shallow cold air comes thru.  Here's the D+11 superens mean pattern. 

 

 

 

I composited the dates of the centered mean (essentially for Jan 15) and got this composite.  Quite frigid over the plains. We still hang onto slightly above normal temps.  The Euro ens mean 6-10 day composite 850 anomaly has its 5 days ending on the 14 as being really toasty/torchy but the ens mean suggests the torchy wx will not last that many days beyond d+11

 

. 

 

I rolled forward 2 days and our temp anomaly went to normal by D+13 and a little below normal by D+14.   Below is the D+13.   Even at D+14 the temps over us are not frigid as the mean trough is too far west suggesting that any strong low will probably go towards the oh valley or even great lakes rather than to our south. The mean still does not show a 50 50 low so any snow once we gt cold would probably be from weak waves or from lows that go to the oh valley which usually don't amount to much east of the mountains unless you live near winterwxluvr. 

 

 

Anyway,  a little better look, hopefully the step down to a colder pattern will continue.  We need the trough axis to shift east and the ridging over the pacific to do likewise or all the big snowstorms will still be aimed to our west. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

Thanks Wes. Very good analysis of the long range "hope". NOW the question, does this have ANYTHING to do with SSW? Because I feel, whether it does or does not, it will be said it does. How do we verify this? It has to come true first, so I may be putting the cart before the horse, but it would be cool to verify it. Should we start a SSW verification thread? Would like to track the correlation so we can come back to it for verification.

 

[mitchnick]

mainly decent, if not great, winters on that analog list Wes

hopefully the winter trends towards the decent ones instead of the couple of dogs also on the list

[Ji]

all we need is one storm....just one...thats  more than 2 inches. Its easier for a camel to walk through the eye of the needle

[Bob Chill]

As expected, GFS is setting back the cold look a couple of days. Looks like we need to survive at least 2 west tracks before the ridge axis out west cooperates. It's still hanging onto the cold getting here. Gonna be quite chilly in the plains first. That looks all but certain. Wes has this nailed. 

 

Edit: just want to add that the GFS @ 500 in the lr is looking like a clipperish event would be our first shot at snow. Closed ull low in the deep sw kinda looks like maybe split flow but it's so far out that it doesn't matter. 

[usedtobe]

Thanks Wes. Very good analysis of the long range "hope". NOW the question, does this have ANYTHING to do with SSW? Because I feel, whether it does or does not, it will be said it does. How do we verify this? It has to come true first, so I may be putting the cart before the horse, but it would be cool to verify it. Should we start a SSW verification thread? Would like to track the correlation so

There already is research that correlates warming events to the AO and the correlation is in the .40 to .50 range if I remember correctly which is not high enough to use as a forecast too by itself. Research also suggests that the times when the warming down wells is when the EP flux in pointed towards the poles. Also, even though a negative AO usually gives us cold, we can end up with above normal temps with a neg ao. We had one during msot of December.

[brad1551]

Looks like the cold is coming in 2 weeks but the overall pattern for good snowstorm doesn't.

Hopefully something's change from now till then.

Wes, I enjoyed your last post and thanks!!!

[clskinsfan]

That's true. it's the January "thaw" but it usually comes later in the month.

 

 

 

Dont you have to have a freeze to have a thaw?

[snownut]

Dont you have to have a freeze to have a thaw?

 

 Now now your being picky.

 

Your in Winchester and you know we have had some snow and ice on the ground since December 24th which is not a bad run compared to last year.

 

We go back to full ugly brown next week but almost 14 days with snow and ice on the ground is okay in my book.

[clskinsfan]

I really need to move out your way.  I assure you it looked nothing like that at my house in FR that day.

 

 

 

For you it isnt really a big move. And I chose to live N/W of Winchester for a reason. A little elevation and your usually good with these borderline events. Not to mention its just beautiful our here.

[QcSevereWx]

On the GFS 12z, what a difference over the 0z.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=00&fhour=240&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=228&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[clskinsfan]

 Now now your being picky.

 

Your in Winchester and you know we have had some snow and ice on the ground since December 24th which is not a bad run compared to last year.

 

We go back to full ugly brown next week but almost 14 days with snow and ice on the ground is okay in my book.

 

Was not complaining about the start to winter out here. I still have 3 inches of snow in the shady parts of my yard. But anything in the sun is brown. I dont think winter is over by a long shot. The models do seem to be backing off of a prolonged mega torch. 

[das]

On the GFS 12z, what a difference over the 0z.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=00&fhour=240&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=228&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

Big swing here.  Look at central Texas.

[Ji]

The rollover analog maps I get look really good for cold delivery...evidence is piling up that we will move in that direction...we probably aren't going to have a great storm track but at least we can get small events or maybe a moderate one

 

maybe right before we go warm again we get our big coastal

[wxdude64]

While I don't dispute my memory could be failing me  , fortunately I kept a snow log for 09-10.  I can't seem to copy and paste from it into this thread but here is the synopsis of events:

 

Dec 5 - 4"

Dec 19 - 20"

Jan 30 - 4"

Feb 2 - 3"

Feb 5&6 - 26"

Feb 9&10 - 3"

 

I recorded no snow in Front Royal (where I lived at the time) on Dec 31, Jan 21, nor at the beginning of March.  Feb 9 and 10 was the last trace of snow there.  There was no freezing rain in FR on Christmas, it was 34F and raining at the onset.  Remember it very well due to the disappointment factor.  I remember being outside around mid-night Christmas morning sleigh-riding down my neighbors back yard while my gf finished wrapping my present (LCD TV) to place it under my tree..  The moon was bright and the temp was in the low-teens (frigid) and I remember thinking how awesome it was to play in what was still 10 - 12 " of snow (in protected areas) on Christmas Eve.  After that rainstorm that night and following day, almost no snow remained except in the sun-shaded areas, and even that was gone a day or two later.  The Feb snows were all gone from the ground by the end of the month.  Out your way the temps are cooler and there are many less hard surfaces which melt more easily than in the town of FR or Stephens City for that matter.  Even now, our snow is gone here while you still have cover.

 

Did anyone else in this forum recieve measurable snow on these three dates in question?

OK, sorry I opened a can of worms here and left...I went back and looked at my records

2.6 fell on 12/5 and was on ground for 4 days 12/5-12/9

23.6 fell on 12/19 and was on ground for 31 days, we went down to 3.0 after the "Christmas wash-out" 12/19-1/19 but had a 3.2 on 12/31, .1 on 1/5 and 1.3 on 1/8 to keep it going

Then a 3.5 on 1/30, 7.2 on 1/31, 5.2 on 2/3, 1.0 on 2/5, 10.0 on 2/6, 2.0 on 2/7, .8 on 2/9, 3.2 on 2/10, .5 on 2/11, 1.8 on 2/16, .1 on 2/17, .5 on 2/25, .2 on 2/26, .2 on 2/27, .4 on 2/28 and last a .1 on 3/3. Snow on ground from 1/30 through 3/6 with close to a week of T's after for less than 50% coverage. I know I missed a few dates, but if you want to look at my data go to CoCoRaHS, VA site and I am VA-AL-3, been doing so since 2007

So yeah, I had snow on 12/31 and 1/21 and end of Feb start of March.

Ended year with 68.6 inches, 72 days with an inch, 31straight and 37 straight greater than 1. Had 10"+ on ground of 7 days and 15 days straight also.

My reporting station is KHSP, sits at 3800', I am at 1400' elevation which is why I always look so cold.

 

**On a side note, if you like to 'keep up' with your data, CoCoRaHS is always looking for more volunteers, check them out!**

[Amped]

If the Damn SE ridge will weaken or get lost there a chance to get cold in here, it is progged to be unusually strong the next 10 days at least.

[WxMan1]

If the Damn SE ridge will weaken or get lost there a chance to get cold in here, it is progged to be unusually strong the next 10 days at least.

 

That's been the most determining factor thus far this winter for us here in the mid Atlantic region.  Very depressing..

[Bob Chill]

Wouldn't the se ridge be a byproduct of the -pna though and not the more classic se ridge we see when the nao is positive?

If I had to point my finger at the problem I would say its been the Pac causing out misery and not the atlantic.

But no matter which way you shake it, we're getting hosed.

[Amped]

Wouldn't the se ridge be a byproduct of the -pna though and not the more classic se ridge we see when the nao is positive?

If I had to point my finger at the problem I would say its been the Pac causing out misery and not the atlantic.

But no matter which way you shake it, we're getting hosed.

 

588 dm is 588dm., over a large area. Ridges stick themselves in the pattern wherever they damn well please and everything else works around them.

 

[Wonderdog]

588 dm is 588dm., over a large area. Ridges stick themselves in the pattern wherever they damn well please and everything else works around them.

 

[Wonderdog]

Well, it would be nice to see the ridge weaken just enough to have the cold front just offshore. I don't think I've ever seen a cold front in the heart of winter hang up in the as depicted for four  plus days. I will be very surprised if that verifies. Has anyone seen such a setup in the winter in the mid atlantic?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Well, it would be nice to see the ridge weaken just enough to have the cold front just offshore. I don't think I've ever seen a cold front in the heart of winter hang up in the as depicted for four plus days. I will be very surprised if that verifies. Has anyone seen such a setup in the winter in the mid atlantic?

Living in SWVA, right on the KY border, I saw a front take 24 hours to move about 50 miles in the dead of winter. Jackson KY was reporting light snow and 28 and I was near 50 with rain. A day later my winds finally switched. This was about 1990 or so. That se ridge can be a bear to move sometimes.

[brad1551]

What stinks is January in speaking is our best month climatology wise for being the coldest and somewhat the snowiest. The next 2weeks don't look favorable at all for any real snowstorm. There are signs of colder weather to come around the last week or so of January. I hope my winter forecast for a backload winter comes true. Time will only tell and model surfing so far this winter has been very unpleasant. Cheers to the 1st week of 2013 without any fun in the meteorology world yet. Lol

[FrederickWX]

What stinks is January in speaking is our best month climatology wise for being the coldest and somewhat the snowiest. The next 2weeks don't look favorable at all for any real snowstorm. There are signs of colder weather to come around the last week or so of January. I hope my winter forecast for a backload winter comes true. Time will only tell and model surfing so far this winter has been very unpleasant. Cheers to the 1st week of 2013 without any fun in the meteorology world yet. Lol

 

I think February is actually our best month for snow.  The Atlantic waters are cold, and we also start to get more energy back into the atmosphere to help generate stronger winter storms.  The air masses coming down into the US are still very cold, so an event that might be marginal in December or early January can actually work out for us in February.

[usedtobe]

Today's superensemble mean and the 06Z GEFS ens mean keep plunging the cold air into the west and plains and keep enough of a ridge along the southeast coast to really slow the eastward progression of the cold air into our area.

Here's the temp composite for the analog dates centered on Jan 17. Note all the cold to our west and that the front is just about on us with our 850 temps just slightly above normal.

Two days later our 850 temps are colder than normal and with such an airmass I wouldn't be surprised if the surface temps were even colder than that relative to normal.

However, beyond D13, temps warm a little as it looks like the front sort of stalls near us. The anlogs do offer the potential for light overrunning snow events towards Jan 17-20 if the front does indeed make it through though even then the pattern is not a great one but is better than the one for the next 10 days.

The GEFS ens mean for 324 has high heights over Greenland and low heights near nova scotia which is usually a good thing for winter but it also has low heights extending across the great lakes into hudson bay which suggests to me that there will be clipper type system tracking across the lakes to our north which is not the greatest for gettign a decent snow storm. Still, despite my reservations about the pattern, the changes would sure beat the pattern for the next 10 days which looks pretty horrid. The pattern evolution on the GEFS extended 324hrs and beyond is not too different from the one that gave Winterluvr some snow and left me bereft. Lets hope as we get closer to the time period that we see some signs of more southern stream action.

[mitchnick]

even the CFS2 sees the SE Ridge as evidenced by the 850 JAN map even though today's JAN forecast continues with the colder than normal (still!)

you would think (ok, hope) that being on the southern edge of the cold would give us some decent cold storm chances, but then, that would be too easy wouldn't it

[Wonderdog]

Living in SWVA, right on the KY border, I saw a front take 24 hours to move about 50 miles in the dead of winter. Jackson KY was reporting light snow and 28 and I was near 50 with rain. A day later my winds finally switched. This was about 1990 or so. That se ridge can be a bear to move sometimes.

Yeah one day sure but four? I have never seen that or at least ever been aware of that. I would be very skeptical of any run that showed such a result. That front will probably sweep thru like s_ _ t through a goose.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah one day sure but four? I have never seen that or at least ever been aware of that. I would be very skeptical of any run that showed such a result. That front will probably sweep thru like s_ _ t through a goose.

I think you're being very optimistic about that. You may be correct, but those cold shots can NOT make it here also. I'm going on memory here, but I believe early in 1997, a very cold outbreak occurred in the western plains, very cold into areas like the Dakotas, Neb, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and back into the Rockies. That cold never did come east. It just gradually warmed/lifted out.

It's dropping into the west because something is forcing it there. The same force that brought it there can keep it there too. This is just opinion and memory of disappointment. Someone with more expertise can chime in with more and/or correct me.