January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Bob Chill]

I gotta side with Ji on this. We average what? Like 3" of precip or so in Jan? I'll take 50% of normal and even give up a half inch of pure rain. That gives us an inch @ 12-1 ratios and the local papers will be full of public nudity arrests and our forum will be radio silent until everyone posts bail.

[H2O]

Looks nice Ian....until you set the oldest date to 1990...

 

97-98 looks epic

[EastCoast NPZ]

Here is a pic from New Years morning of 2010.

 

I really need to move out your way.  I assure you it looked nothing like that at my house in FR that day.

[EastCoast NPZ]

here are the obs for it: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/218617-dcmdvawv-discussion-and-obs-for-the-bowling-ball-storm/page__st__500

 

typical DC winter...

 

Posted 07 January 2010 - 06:44 AM

Once upon a time, this storm had the potential to be a MECS.

 

 

sadly my stellar posts seem to be gone but they are in some quotes

 

Good reading, thanks for that.  There are statements from LWX just prior to the event talking of the dry slot invading areas west of the blue ridge and your own post regarding poor-looking radar.  I would conclude then I was dry-slotted in FR; hence, received >1" of snow and did not record.  A storm moving west-to-east passing even a little north of us is certain death in these parts.  I'm more sure than ever that this was a non-event in my location.

[mitchnick]

Good reading, thanks for that.  There are statements from LWX just prior to the event talking of the dry slot invading areas west of the blue ridge and your own post regarding poor-looking radar.  I would conclude then I was dry-slotted in FR; hence, received >1" of snow and did not record.  A storm moving west-to-east passing even a little north of us is certain death in these parts.  I'm more sure than ever that this was a non-event in my location.

 

BWI received 1.8" out of that and I have absolutely no recollection of that event

just goes to show how one gets complacent with small snow events in a monster year like 09/10

[mitchnick]

by the way, 0Z Euro gave BWI .09" liquid for Sunday morning and now the 12Z NAM is giving measurable qpf (albeit probably < .1") as well

we might get a little lucky before the "formal" torch hits

[aldie 22]

NAM could be an inch at JYO....fun

[mitchnick]

NAM could be an inch at JYO....fun

 

thicknesses are a tad on the higher side at the start for DCA/BWI area but it "should" be mostly snow (he says w/o confidence having not yet seen soundings)

[mitchnick]

BWI looks OK on soundings, but I'm a little surprised based on those 3 hr maps that total qpf is a paltry .04"

 

IAD gets .06 and .04" at DCA with "potential" bl issues

[usedtobe]

I'll leave others to getting excited about amybe seeing flurries to a dusting this weekend.  It's hard to get excited when the surface looks so crappy, plus dustings just don't do much for me. 

 

Today's D+11 offers a frigid look for the plains and midwest and suggests that beyond Day 11 we probably get a frontal passage and go below normal as shallow cold air comes thru.  Here's the D+11 superens mean pattern. 

 

 

 

I composited the dates of the centered mean (essentially for Jan 15) and got this composite.  Quite frigid over the plains. We still hang onto slightly above normal temps.  The Euro ens mean 6-10 day composite 850 anomaly has its 5 days ending on the 14 as being really toasty/torchy but the ens mean suggests the torchy wx will not last that many days beyond d+11

 

. 

 

I rolled forward 2 days and our temp anomaly went to normal by D+13 and a little below normal by D+14.   Below is the D+13.   Even at D+14 the temps over us are not frigid as the mean trough is too far west suggesting that any strong low will probably go towards the oh valley or even great lakes rather than to our south. The mean still does not show a 50 50 low so any snow once we gt cold would probably be from weak waves or from lows that go to the oh valley which usually don't amount to much east of the mountains unless you live near winterwxluvr. 

 

 

Anyway,  a little better look, hopefully the step down to a colder pattern will continue.  We need the trough axis to shift east and the ridging over the pacific to do likewise or all the big snowstorms will still be aimed to our west. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

Thanks Wes. Very good analysis of the long range "hope". NOW the question, does this have ANYTHING to do with SSW? Because I feel, whether it does or does not, it will be said it does. How do we verify this? It has to come true first, so I may be putting the cart before the horse, but it would be cool to verify it. Should we start a SSW verification thread? Would like to track the correlation so we can come back to it for verification.

 

[mitchnick]

mainly decent, if not great, winters on that analog list Wes

hopefully the winter trends towards the decent ones instead of the couple of dogs also on the list

[Ji]

all we need is one storm....just one...thats  more than 2 inches. Its easier for a camel to walk through the eye of the needle

[Bob Chill]

As expected, GFS is setting back the cold look a couple of days. Looks like we need to survive at least 2 west tracks before the ridge axis out west cooperates. It's still hanging onto the cold getting here. Gonna be quite chilly in the plains first. That looks all but certain. Wes has this nailed. 

 

Edit: just want to add that the GFS @ 500 in the lr is looking like a clipperish event would be our first shot at snow. Closed ull low in the deep sw kinda looks like maybe split flow but it's so far out that it doesn't matter. 

[usedtobe]

Thanks Wes. Very good analysis of the long range "hope". NOW the question, does this have ANYTHING to do with SSW? Because I feel, whether it does or does not, it will be said it does. How do we verify this? It has to come true first, so I may be putting the cart before the horse, but it would be cool to verify it. Should we start a SSW verification thread? Would like to track the correlation so

There already is research that correlates warming events to the AO and the correlation is in the .40 to .50 range if I remember correctly which is not high enough to use as a forecast too by itself. Research also suggests that the times when the warming down wells is when the EP flux in pointed towards the poles. Also, even though a negative AO usually gives us cold, we can end up with above normal temps with a neg ao. We had one during msot of December.

[brad1551]

Looks like the cold is coming in 2 weeks but the overall pattern for good snowstorm doesn't.

Hopefully something's change from now till then.

Wes, I enjoyed your last post and thanks!!!

[clskinsfan]

That's true. it's the January "thaw" but it usually comes later in the month.

 

 

 

Dont you have to have a freeze to have a thaw?

[snownut]

Dont you have to have a freeze to have a thaw?

 

 Now now your being picky.

 

Your in Winchester and you know we have had some snow and ice on the ground since December 24th which is not a bad run compared to last year.

 

We go back to full ugly brown next week but almost 14 days with snow and ice on the ground is okay in my book.

[clskinsfan]

I really need to move out your way.  I assure you it looked nothing like that at my house in FR that day.

 

 

 

For you it isnt really a big move. And I chose to live N/W of Winchester for a reason. A little elevation and your usually good with these borderline events. Not to mention its just beautiful our here.

[QcSevereWx]

On the GFS 12z, what a difference over the 0z.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=00&fhour=240&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=228&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[clskinsfan]

 Now now your being picky.

 

Your in Winchester and you know we have had some snow and ice on the ground since December 24th which is not a bad run compared to last year.

 

We go back to full ugly brown next week but almost 14 days with snow and ice on the ground is okay in my book.

 

Was not complaining about the start to winter out here. I still have 3 inches of snow in the shady parts of my yard. But anything in the sun is brown. I dont think winter is over by a long shot. The models do seem to be backing off of a prolonged mega torch. 

[das]

On the GFS 12z, what a difference over the 0z.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=00&fhour=240&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=228&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

Big swing here.  Look at central Texas.

[Deck Pic]

The rollover analog maps I get look really good for cold delivery...evidence is piling up that we will move in that direction...we probably aren't going to have a great storm track but at least we can get small events or maybe a moderate one

[Ji]

The rollover analog maps I get look really good for cold delivery...evidence is piling up that we will move in that direction...we probably aren't going to have a great storm track but at least we can get small events or maybe a moderate one

 

maybe right before we go warm again we get our big coastal

[Deck Pic]

maybe right before we go warm again we get our big coastal

 

 

I see us being predominantly cold in the means from around 1/20 through maybe 3/10....brief thaws here and there....even our coldest months had thaws....see my CWG outlook thread..best storm chances...2/8, 2/20, 3/1

[wxdude64]

While I don't dispute my memory could be failing me  , fortunately I kept a snow log for 09-10.  I can't seem to copy and paste from it into this thread but here is the synopsis of events:

 

Dec 5 - 4"

Dec 19 - 20"

Jan 30 - 4"

Feb 2 - 3"

Feb 5&6 - 26"

Feb 9&10 - 3"

 

I recorded no snow in Front Royal (where I lived at the time) on Dec 31, Jan 21, nor at the beginning of March.  Feb 9 and 10 was the last trace of snow there.  There was no freezing rain in FR on Christmas, it was 34F and raining at the onset.  Remember it very well due to the disappointment factor.  I remember being outside around mid-night Christmas morning sleigh-riding down my neighbors back yard while my gf finished wrapping my present (LCD TV) to place it under my tree..  The moon was bright and the temp was in the low-teens (frigid) and I remember thinking how awesome it was to play in what was still 10 - 12 " of snow (in protected areas) on Christmas Eve.  After that rainstorm that night and following day, almost no snow remained except in the sun-shaded areas, and even that was gone a day or two later.  The Feb snows were all gone from the ground by the end of the month.  Out your way the temps are cooler and there are many less hard surfaces which melt more easily than in the town of FR or Stephens City for that matter.  Even now, our snow is gone here while you still have cover.

 

Did anyone else in this forum recieve measurable snow on these three dates in question?

OK, sorry I opened a can of worms here and left...I went back and looked at my records

2.6 fell on 12/5 and was on ground for 4 days 12/5-12/9

23.6 fell on 12/19 and was on ground for 31 days, we went down to 3.0 after the "Christmas wash-out" 12/19-1/19 but had a 3.2 on 12/31, .1 on 1/5 and 1.3 on 1/8 to keep it going

Then a 3.5 on 1/30, 7.2 on 1/31, 5.2 on 2/3, 1.0 on 2/5, 10.0 on 2/6, 2.0 on 2/7, .8 on 2/9, 3.2 on 2/10, .5 on 2/11, 1.8 on 2/16, .1 on 2/17, .5 on 2/25, .2 on 2/26, .2 on 2/27, .4 on 2/28 and last a .1 on 3/3. Snow on ground from 1/30 through 3/6 with close to a week of T's after for less than 50% coverage. I know I missed a few dates, but if you want to look at my data go to CoCoRaHS, VA site and I am VA-AL-3, been doing so since 2007

So yeah, I had snow on 12/31 and 1/21 and end of Feb start of March.

Ended year with 68.6 inches, 72 days with an inch, 31straight and 37 straight greater than 1. Had 10"+ on ground of 7 days and 15 days straight also.

My reporting station is KHSP, sits at 3800', I am at 1400' elevation which is why I always look so cold.

 

**On a side note, if you like to 'keep up' with your data, CoCoRaHS is always looking for more volunteers, check them out!**

[Amped]

If the Damn SE ridge will weaken or get lost there a chance to get cold in here, it is progged to be unusually strong the next 10 days at least.

[WxMan1]

If the Damn SE ridge will weaken or get lost there a chance to get cold in here, it is progged to be unusually strong the next 10 days at least.

 

That's been the most determining factor thus far this winter for us here in the mid Atlantic region.  Very depressing..

[Bob Chill]

Wouldn't the se ridge be a byproduct of the -pna though and not the more classic se ridge we see when the nao is positive?

If I had to point my finger at the problem I would say its been the Pac causing out misery and not the atlantic.

But no matter which way you shake it, we're getting hosed.

[Amped]

Wouldn't the se ridge be a byproduct of the -pna though and not the more classic se ridge we see when the nao is positive?

If I had to point my finger at the problem I would say its been the Pac causing out misery and not the atlantic.

But no matter which way you shake it, we're getting hosed.

 

588 dm is 588dm., over a large area. Ridges stick themselves in the pattern wherever they damn well please and everything else works around them.