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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Gym,

 

Do you have stats for how long the snow cover lasted after the back-to-back big snows in Jan '87 ?  Seem to recall that huge snow pack shrinking really fast.

 

 

Yup, for the airports only, though- 1"+ snow cover days:

 

DCA- 13 days

IAD- 16 days

BWI- 13 days

 

Edited to add: These counts started at the first storm, not after the second storm.

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Yup, for the airports only, though- 1"+ snow cover days:

 

DCA- 13 days

IAD- 16 days

BWI- 13 days

 

Edited to add: These counts started at the first storm, not after the second storm.

 

18 to 2 inches in 9 days after the second.. DC isn't all that good at holding snowcover. Then again who wants to keep that crap around for too long in a city. :P

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Thanks !  Much longer than I recalled.  I thought it was mostly gone by the following weekend.

 

I think 2/1979 would have been the most depressing if snow cover is your thing-- you had gigantic snowstorm on top of moderate snow on top of moderate snow in the midst of one of the greatest cold snaps ever for DC, with the highest ever daily snow depth at DCA after the the last storm (PDI). Then, after the big event ends, it all melts away in 6 days?

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18 to 2 inches in 9 days after the second.. DC isn't all that good at holding snowcover. Then again who wants to keep that crap around for too long in a city. :P

Growing up in SWVA, I remember the Sunday after Thanksgiving 1977 getting 16 inches of snow, changed to rain, and had about 4 inches by morning.

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I think 2/1979 would have been the most depressing if snow cover is your thing-- you had gigantic snowstorm on top of moderate snow on top of moderate snow in the midst of one of the greatest cold snaps ever for DC, with the highest ever daily snow depth at DCA after the the last storm (PDI). Then, after the big event ends, it all melts away in 6 days?

That was the only good thing about missing out on 3-1-2009. What was it in DC by the end of the week? 70?

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Growing up in SWVA, I remember the Sunday after Thanksgiving 1977 getting 16 inches of snow, changed to rain, and had about 4 inches by morning.

 

That's fun.. I think most spots can get things like that tho that seems about as extreme as you get. DC's climo just doesn't support long snowcover overall. If we tended to get our biggest storms around now or earlier they might have more opportunity to stick around in marginal temps. Of course we'd still have to deal with cutters etc. By Feb 10-15 you're not keeping snow on the ground for long at DCA in full sun unless it's frigid. Of course from there on the odds of a big one drop pretty quick but it butts up right against out best snow climo at least longevitywise. I know a lot less about cold stretches etc than other stuff.. maybe because there's never been much reason to look into it of late. ;) Seems keeping it truly cold past a week is a problem just about anytime these days. But, again, unless you need crusty snow to make you feel better about winter.. let it disappear -- it gets gross fast here.

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I think 2/1979 would have been the most depressing if snow cover is your thing-- you had gigantic snowstorm on top of moderate snow on top of moderate snow in the midst of one of the greatest cold snaps ever for DC, with the highest ever daily snow depth at DCA after the the last storm (PDI). Then, after the big event ends, it all melts away in 6 days?

Biggest drawback to the February blockbusters imo.  I did hold onto snow cover for 23 days here after VD 2007 though, but that was a different kind of event.

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January 1987 was one of the most impressive stretches of snow cover for Richmond in terms of depth. With very cold temperatures, including a below 0°F reading at the airport, snow cover officially lasted for 13 days. But, after the 2nd storm, the official depth at the airport was in excess of 12" for six straight days. Going back to 1920, snow this deep for such a lengthy time only occurred in late January 1940 after a 20" snowstorm which was also followed by very cold temperatures.

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January 1987 was one of the most impressive stretches of snow cover for Richmond in terms of depth. With very cold temperatures, including a below 0°F reading at the airport, snow cover officially lasted for 13 days. But, after the 2nd storm, the official depth at the airport was in excess of 12" for six straight days. Going back to 1920, snow this deep for such a lengthy time only occurred in late January 1940 after a 20" snowstorm which was also followed by very cold temperatures.

 

Wow- even IAD only held on for 5-6 days (depending on if you count the morning at the snow's end).

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This is for DC with up to 1" snow accum thru Dec then for rest of yr.  Avgs in the set mostly run 80-90% norm. .2 avg is 107%! ;)

 

edit: tried code but it was messed up so here's a screencap. based off current norm of 15.4 / yr.

 

post-1615-0-02495500-1357268421_thumb.jp

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This isn't 2011-12 or 2001-02...the cold is coming...may take until 15th-20th....the snow I'm not sure, but we need the cold 1st and we will get it

 

I think it will be little after Jan 15 but the cross polar flow will bring down high pressure.  The mean trough is stil far enough west on Jan 15 or so that I think the real cold will be in the middle of the country and will have to work its way east though shallow cold air could slip by us even with above normal heights. 

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Don't make me play the optimist. It won't end well.

Lol- it is kinda stark though isn't it? Only one above climo in the set post 1990? I had just moved back here in 99 from CO so I wasn't really paying much mind that winter but didn't most of the snow in 99-00 come in one storm?

I agree with your posts about losing out on the margins. Turns on later and shuts off earlier on average. Things are different now than when I grew up here. I lived in md from 72-92 before moving away for a bit. Its not the same.

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Lol- it is kinda stark though isn't it? Only one above climo in the set post 1990? I had just moved back here in 99 from CO so I wasn't really paying much mind that winter but didn't most of the snow in 99-00 come in one storm?

I agree with your posts about losing out on the margins. Turns on later and shuts off earlier on average. Things are different now than when I grew up here. I lived in md from 72-92 before moving away for a bit. Its not the same.

 

Overall our (DCA) odds aren't that fantastic to hit avg from here out it would seem. Though perhaps that's not the realistic target we should be aiming for. I'm probably low-balling but as I said the other day I'd be somewhat OK with like ~6" if we get one that's like ~3" out of that. 

 

post-1615-0-65749900-1357271517_thumb.gi

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interesting run of the 0Z GFS

it brings a nice vortex over Hudson Bay after 220 hrs which brings the cold back and a chance of snow, but then at the end of the run it retrogrades the -NAO and builds a decent ridge over Hudson Bay

can't recall seeing that before (so maybe it means it won't happen) but interesting nonetheless

any met care to chime in on the consequences of that kind of set up, if true, stormwise? thanks in advance

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I gotta side with Ji on this. We average what? Like 3" of precip or so in Jan? I'll take 50% of normal and even give up a half inch of pure rain. That gives us an inch @ 12-1 ratios and the local papers will be full of public nudity arrests and our forum will be radio silent until everyone posts bail.

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here are the obs for it: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/218617-dcmdvawv-discussion-and-obs-for-the-bowling-ball-storm/page__st__500

 

typical DC winter...

 

Posted 07 January 2010 - 06:44 AM

Once upon a time, this storm had the potential to be a MECS.

 

 

sadly my stellar posts seem to be gone but they are in some quotes

 

Good reading, thanks for that.  There are statements from LWX just prior to the event talking of the dry slot invading areas west of the blue ridge and your own post regarding poor-looking radar.  I would conclude then I was dry-slotted in FR; hence, received >1" of snow and did not record.  A storm moving west-to-east passing even a little north of us is certain death in these parts.  I'm more sure than ever that this was a non-event in my location.

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Good reading, thanks for that.  There are statements from LWX just prior to the event talking of the dry slot invading areas west of the blue ridge and your own post regarding poor-looking radar.  I would conclude then I was dry-slotted in FR; hence, received >1" of snow and did not record.  A storm moving west-to-east passing even a little north of us is certain death in these parts.  I'm more sure than ever that this was a non-event in my location.

 

BWI received 1.8" out of that and I have absolutely no recollection of that event

just goes to show how one gets complacent with small snow events in a monster year like 09/10

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