January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Amped]

144 and 168..... slides just to our north but I'd assume some decent precip and plenty cold.

Still don't like the look of it, very NRN stream dominant system. H7 closes off over Lake Ontario.

 

I'll punt now!

[aldie 22]

This ones gonna be Thursdays radar in reverse...instead of looking South hoping the snow will come North we will be looking North hoping it comes South. We've been here before boys...be prepared

[showmethesnow]

06Z GFS is somewhat interesting. At day 6-7 it sends a low into the Ohio valley with overrunning  (probably mostly some sort of frozen) for N MD. Then develops a secondary low on the cold front to the south in S Carolina. This low then proceeds up the coast. Low isn't a powerhouse by any means but it looks as if it is able to tap into the GOM and with ample cold air being pulled in from the north and west this would probably be a decent snow event for the northern and western sections of the mid Atlantic.

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the GFS ensemble run it looks as if there is probably quite a bit of spread between the members for the storm in the 6-7 day time period.

[aldie 22]

Rain

[showmethesnow]

Rain

For the storm at 6-7 days? How do you figure? Looks to me if this GFS run were to verify you would start as rain but quickly turn over to snow once the secondary develops.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looking at the ens means for the available models it would seem there's a pretty good signal for a storm in about a week. With a real airmass in place in front of it, we might have something.

[aldie 22]

For the storm at 6-7 days? How do you figure? Looks to me if this GFS run were to verify you would start as rain but quickly turn over to snow once the secondary develops.

It's mostly rain with some sleet freezing rain and some snow

[Yeoman]

For the storm at 6-7 days? How do you figure? Looks to me if this GFS run were to verify you would start as rain but quickly turn over to snow once the secondary develops.

[swimmatte]

This far out I'm not too worried about what the temps/precip type are showing.  With the cold we're going to be seeing this week I'd just like to see the GFS and Euro lock in on the storm itself.

[mdsnowlover]

For the storm at 6-7 days? How do you figure? Looks to me if this GFS run were to verify you would start as rain but quickly turn over to snow once the secondary develops.

 after a week of cold, what a mess to end up with. Hope this changes.I know its a week away, or close to that.

[87storms]

Looking at the ens means for the available models it would seem there's a pretty good signal for a storm in about a week. With a real airmass in place in front of it, we might have something.

 

if we can't squeeze a little snowstorm out of the next pattern, then...well...i don't know what to say.