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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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The current major SSW event continues to unfold with dramatic warming now over the eastern and central US.  There are lots of similarities between this event and wintertime events in 1984/1985 and 1998/1999.  Those recent history events give us some clues as to the potential impact of the current event.  An overall colder-than-normal temperature pattern in the eastern and central US that begins in earnest early next week should last into February based on these analogs.  Detailed breakdown in this video: http://spam.com/category/phl/

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I hadn't noticed this until today, but the GFS is painting some nearly -20F Dew Points on Wednesday.  That can't happen too often around here.

 

Will the anomalous dryness be noticeable? If I can actually feel the "dryness" I may have to take a jebwalk in negative dews. 

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I hadn't noticed this until today, but the GFS is painting some nearly -20F Dew Points on Wednesday.  That can't happen too often around here.

 

The 18Z GFS actually gives us a dusting with a clipper and looks quite a bit colder than the previous runs for the 180hr time period.  Not sure what that means. 

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The 18Z GFS actually gives us a dusting with a clipper and looks quite a bit colder than the previous runs for the 180hr time period. Not sure what that means.

It's ens members like that idea of precip developing in the southern miss valley. The 12z had one showing it. Didn't seem to be much upper support on the operational run. That kinda thing confuses me. Seems like about 10 days ago we had what looked like a good vortex pass south of us and it produced nothing and this one seems to blow up from nothing. Maybe you could enlighten me on this. It's a long way out there, probably nothing, but still interesting to me.

Edit: I'm referring to the 168-192 time frame

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Gotta keep an eye on the system next Fri-Sat, the 25-26. Very Miller B-ish, come due east from the OH Vly, however the EC was correctly trending the low farther south. The antecedent cold air is key...if the confluence to the north and the lllvl cold air is as strong as we think it can be next week, and knowing that the models love to scour it out too soon in the medium range, we may have a legit shot here...

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It's ens members like that idea of precip developing in the southern miss valley. The 12z had one showing it. Didn't seem to be much upper support on the operational run. That kinda thing confuses me. Seems like about 10 days ago we had what looked like a good vortex pass south of us and it produced nothing and this one seems to blow up from nothing. Maybe you could enlighten me on this. It's a long way out there, probably nothing, but still interesting to me.

Edit: I'm referring to the 168-192 time frame

I think it isn't the vort that drives the precip initially but the precip is more related to the gulf opening up and then some warm advection developing partly in response to weak srn stream energy that is trying to get involved but that's just a WAG.

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I think it isn't the vort that drives the precip initially but the precip is more related to the gulf opening up and then some warm advection developing partly in response to weak srn stream energy that is trying to get involved but that's just a WAG.

You are the weather equivalent of a cult leader, you know. Lives might hang in the balance as you type up a weather post.

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It is frustrating that we have the best met on the forum posting here and all he has to discuss is drizzle obs and heat waves.

I'm not sure I've seen Wes discuss a heat wave. He's as hard to find as Randy on the weather side in the warm season unless we are about to get raked by a Fay.

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