Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I was just looking at that w/the SE ridge being so strong, that's probably the best shot for us to get snow.....cold front passes through, hangs up, and a low forms and rides up the coast I remember the good old days in the 70's and 80's when that actually happened Don't miss the corresponding 5h panel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 And then there's a sw bowling that hits a wall of confluence as it approaches our latitude in the later frames.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Don't miss the corresponding 5h panel.... as they say in Glen Burnie.....I seen at' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I was just looking at that w/the SE ridge being so strong, that's probably the best shot for us to get snow.....cold front passes through, hangs up, and a low forms and rides up the coast I remember the good old days in the 70's and 80's when that actually happened It's a possibility, but these type of storms always seem to miss us to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Who has the meme pic of Wes ready to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Do it Bob! Burn this mother down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 PS - ill bet the whole area ends up above normal snowfall. 40"+ in March, perhaps? ;-) Edit: Just saw that Balti Zen noted this above as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Just take a tall cold drink of hr 189 on 12z gfs and get back to me. Oh, and qoute the part of my post about having something on the heels or a storm that cuts to the N&W. Model snow at eight days. I hope I'm completely wrong and you're right, but we've read this story many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 183-192 is the lulz...too bad it never happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Of course it isn't going down as shown....but the idea is out there....storm cuts, cold front passes, and a wave rides... We just had this happen but temps sucked. Look at 5h. the waa wave is a real possibility. Can it be all rain? Hell yeah it can. Can it be all snow? Yep. It's prime time climo without a totally effed up 5h pattern. It aint gonna be pretty or easy this year. But some sort of jacked up setup can snow on us area wide. I'll be watching this feature closely. It's in the realm of possibility....until Wes comes in with his hammer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It's a possibility, but these type of storms always seem to miss us to the SE. No they don't. We just got 1-2" of cold rain from a relatively similar setup. It can work both ways thermally. I like this one for now. Heck, it's all I got man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 No they don't. We just got 1-2" of cold rain from a relatively similar setup. It can work both ways thermally. I like this one for now. Heck, it's all I got man.... You're right. I guess through all of the excitement of getting my trees and deck glazed over up here I forgot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Of course it isn't going down as shown....but the idea is out there....storm cuts, cold front passes, and a wave rides... We just had this happen but temps sucked. Look at 5h. the waa wave is a real possibility. Can it be all rain? Hell yeah it can. Can it be all snow? Yep. It's prime time climo without a totally effed up 5h pattern. It aint gonna be pretty or easy this year. But some sort of jacked up setup can snow on us area wide. I'll be watching this feature closely. It's in the realm of possibility....until Wes comes in with his hammer.... those setups never work.. but it probably won't keep us from hoping it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 those setups never work.. but it probably won't keep us from hoping it does I tend to agree but it's not a bad time of year to test the possibility. And 5h needs to resemble this or better behind the front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The system that goes west prior has a cad sig. Prob worth keeping an eye on for ice too. Not that I give a crap about ice but frozen is frozen and we lack precip in that department beyond any weenies worst nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 What's discouraging to me is it's going to take the damn PV to drift past Lakes Superior and Huron for us to get 2 days with double-digit negative departures. The default is just warm for the last several years (decades?). I agree. We have not had a serious prolonged cold spell in years. But is that the norm for our area? Or were the 70's and 80's extreme? I dont have enough knowledge to know the answer to that. The PV retreating north is the kick in the nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Its a matter of expectations. I dont really get excited over snow to rain events, just to see snow falling from the sky. Be nice to have a few solid all snow events, or at least ones that don't turn to rain and end up as slop or get washed away completely. I think there will be chances in early February. I know some people here like to make a big deal over sun angle, or whine that two-thirds of winter has been wasted blah blah. But the reality is if we get a good area-wide snow event or two in the first half of February, no one will care about increasing sun angle. yes, but given that we've seen nothing but marginal air masses this winter (well, and warm ones too) it seems unlikely that Feb is going to be kind to us. Fact is if anyone of those events at the end of Dec (for us folks in the western area) had happened in Feb no one outside the high elevations would've had any accumulating snow. 32 - 33F snow falling during the daylight hours in Feb might as well be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 don't see this 500mb map very often Day 4 12z Euro http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I tend to agree with Bob. The big differenence with these waves coming in the LR is that it will have been very cold leading up to these waves and not in the 60's or 70's. First things first, cold pattern. I will take that over the warmth we had last weekend. At least it gives us chances! Let's remember that this wave that we just had didn't show up on the models affecting VA until Monday night. May not happen but going to stay positive! In a little different boat than most of you guys though. I did get 4" out of last nights system. Hoping for something that makes us all happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 12z Euro has a slp in panhandle of WVA, but 850 are still a couple below 0 looks like a snow to mix/rain or even zr, but I can't tell you how much qpf (if any for that matter) because I'm still waiting for Accuwx to update http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 5h http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850's http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 12z Euro has a slp in panhandle of WVA, but 850 are still a couple below 0 looks like a snow to mix/rain or even zr, but I can't tell you how much qpf (if any for that matter) because I'm still waiting for Accuwx to update http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 5h http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850's http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest my guess is a big hit in NEpast day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 12z Euro has a slp in panhandle of WVA, but 850 are still a couple below 0 looks like a snow to mix/rain or even zr, but I can't tell you how much qpf (if any for that matter) because I'm still waiting for Accuwx to update http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 5h http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850's http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Looks like snow/ice to start and quick change to rain. We need it to be more south like GGEM is showing or have better CAD like GGEM is showing. It just needs to like like GGEm which blitzes us. But it is trending south for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looks like snow/ice to start and quick change to rain. We need it to be more south like GGEM is showing or have better CAD like GGEM is showing. It just needs to like like GGEm which blitzes us. But it is trending south for sure Cold/Dry Warm/Wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 this is why I complain DCA and BWI both get dryslotted with DCA getting .01" and BWI .08" thru 12z Fri on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Looks like snow/ice to start and quick change to rain. We need it to be more south like GGEM is showing or have better CAD like GGEM is showing. It just needs to like like GGEm which blitzes us. But it is trending south for sure No...it needs to be a nice big snowstorm for Vermont like the GFS shows so I can at least have a good ski weekend. I doubt that is going to end up far enough south to give us a significant snowfall, its originating too far north. The best case would be a low impact event, and I could care less...my worst case scenario is it ends up far enough south to miss new england and thus not give any snow to the ski areas, but still not give much of anything down here worth seeing either. I have given up on our winter, but at least get snow snow into Vermont so I can save something of a ski season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 yes, but given that we've seen nothing but marginal air masses this winter (well, and warm ones too) it seems unlikely that Feb is going to be kind to us. Fact is if anyone of those events at the end of Dec (for us folks in the western area) had happened in Feb no one outside the high elevations would've had any accumulating snow. 32 - 33F snow falling during the daylight hours in Feb might as well be rain. All depends on the intensity of the snowfall. Get some weak ass storm where the clouds aren't that thick with light snow falling then yeah might as well be rain. Get a dynamic system with moderate to heavy snow and it can easily accumulate at 32 during the day. Lower ratios of course. The other possibility is an arctic air mass with temps in the 20s or lower and a good storm. There are indications in the long range that early Feb could be decently cold and stormy. Hopefully the mild period after this coming week is short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 mitch, 12z EURO has NO accumulated QPF during the entire 240 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 mitch, 12z EURO has NO accumulated QPF during the entire 240 for DC. Seems like a 998 low over Pittsburgh should be good for some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 mitch, 12z EURO has NO accumulated QPF during the entire 240 for DC. Not buying that...there is a low 5 feet from us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Not buying that...there is a low 5 feet from us It is a low that originated from Canada, diving in from the NW like a clipper, NO gulf or pacific moisture, why would you expect there to be any precip south of the low track in that scenario???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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