North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 A Miller B day 10? Frickin' awesome, I was worried that our friends up north might be getting restless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Well here we go a cold and dry...coldest air in a few years next week and cant take advantage, I actually will enjoy the cold air mass though I find it refreshing. Looks like it may be short lived though...hello SE ridge, and bye bye PV? looks like it may to do a full retreat by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Lol...60's showing up on the gfs to end January.....frigid Unfortunately it seems to be the new norm .If it's going to go that mild why stop there let's go for 80's!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Well here we go a cold and dry...coldest air in a few years next week and cant take advantage, I actually will enjoy the cold air mass though I find it refreshing. Looks like it may be short lived though...hello SE ridge, and bye bye PV? looks like it may to do a full retreat by next weekend. good riddance if it isn't going to snow by the end of this month, who cares already the heart of winter will be over and at some point FEB will flip warm don't get me wrong, if we can get cold and stormy, I'm all in but painful model runs for the mr and lr the past few days have been about as exciting/satisfying as last night's snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 good riddance if it isn't going to snow by the end of this month, who cares already the heart of winter will be over and at some point FEB will flip warm don't get me wrong, if we can get cold and stormy, I'm all in but painful model runs for the mr and lr the past few days have been about as exciting/satisfying as last night's snowstorm Pretty much agree. Maybe it is best just to blow up this pattern, live with yet another warm wet spell, then see if we can get something more favorable. Not like this polar vortex did or will do a damn thing for us anyway.(other than brief dry cold period) Need a +PNA AND a good west-based neg NAO. MJO forecasts still look decent, so who knows maybe something good sets up for a time in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It's not been a great winter for the major cities northeast of us either-- Boston's "only" had 7" so they are running well behind where they should be. NYC's at 5" at Philadelphia's only at 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 6Z GFS is simply disgusting. Warm/wet and Cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 what happened to the -NAO that modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 what happened to the -NAO that modeled? the same thing that happened to our snowstorm that was modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 You guys see lemons and I drink lemonade. Precip pattern becomes active again after a couple days of cold and dry. Overall pattern is marginal but not a stinker. The strength and placement of the pv wobbling around can't even be modeled well with a 3 day lead. I say we sneak something. It may be a dirty front end snow to rain but who cares. I personally will be surprised if we close the month with a goose egg. You heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 the same thing that happened to our snowstorm that was modeled our snowstorm was modeled for 2 runs. For the past week, the modeling had it consistently tracking to the south which is why you werent tracking till the day before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 You guys see lemons and I drink lemonade. Precip pattern becomes active again after a couple days of cold and dry. Overall pattern is marginal but not a stinker. The strength and placement of the pv wobbling around can't even be modeled well with a 3 day lead. I say we sneak something. It may be a dirty front end snow to rain but who cares. I personally will be surprised if we close the month with a goose egg. You heard it here first.I'm with you. I don't see why anyone looks at just the operational runs after a few days.I still think this thread has some bad mojo. We need to start over and exorcise this demon. It's 47 pages for Pete's sake. PS - ill bet the whole area ends up above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Ian I agree we are not event getting to freezing at night. I looked up my back yard KNAK Annapolis and we have only had 48 hours of temps 32 or blow from Oct to now pathetic. And I think it hit 28 as the lowest whoooooooo this sucks. last yr was a pretty crazy anomaly for dc itself when it comes to cold temps. i mean it was way below reaching quotas even the warm current normals. we're basically in a similar place for this winter so we almost need some good cold or maybe our local climate has snapped. still only 10 freezing or lower lows.. DJF avg is 65 over recent 30 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 You guys see lemons and I drink lemonade. Precip pattern becomes active again after a couple days of cold and dry. Overall pattern is marginal but not a stinker. The strength and placement of the pv wobbling around can't even be modeled well with a 3 day lead. I say we sneak something. It may be a dirty front end snow to rain but who cares. I personally will be surprised if we close the month with a goose egg. You heard it here first. We've been saying the same all winter. A broken clock is right twice a day, but we seem to be fixing the clock before it flukes into being right, then it breaks again, we fix it, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm with you. I don't see why anyone looks at just the operational runs after a few days. I still think this thread has some bad mojo. We need to start over and exorcise this demon. It's 47 pages for Pete's sake. PS - ill bet the whole area ends up above normal snowfall. Are you being serious? Our area alone would need about almost another 20" just to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 You guys see lemons and I drink lemonade. Precip pattern becomes active again after a couple days of cold and dry. Overall pattern is marginal but not a stinker. The strength and placement of the pv wobbling around can't even be modeled well with a 3 day lead. I say we sneak something. It may be a dirty front end snow to rain but who cares. I personally will be surprised if we close the month with a goose egg. You heard it here first. I agree. For some reason, I feel we need that cold shot to change the low 30's for a low temp regime. The signal has been there for a week now for something to occur next Friday. Once that front barrels thru, then it will be interesting to see how the models react (as if they were living entities lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Are you being serious? Our area alone would need about almost another 20" just to get there. Easily done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Easily done. Not as much in a bad winter tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Easily done. You are wandering close to the "bethesdaboy" zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I agree. For some reason, I feel we need that cold shot to change the low 30's for a low temp regime. The signal has been there for a week now for something to occur next Friday. Once that front barrels thru, then it will be interesting to see how the models react (as if they were living entities lol). I just using a simplistic approach. There appears to be a relatively active precip period after the 3 day chilly spell. The pna isn't tanking, the nao isn't going through the roof and 5h doesn't look god awful either. This in conjunction with our best climo period of winter will favor chances of snow vs no chance of snow. Even systems passing n&w will have cool airmasses behind them. Anything on the heels can start as frozen even with a crappy track. Time will tell but punting the rest of jan is silly unless things really go to hell. Which they might but I'm not seeing it yet at all unless you pick the worst panels in the lr and expect them to be 100% right. We have the pv on our side spinning around in canada for goodness sakes. Perfect patters are few and far between. Marginal are around all day long from the looks of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Which they might but I'm not seeing it yet at all unless you pick the worst panels in the lr and expect them to be 100% right That's kinda been a money move for the last two winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't have the technical knowledge of Bob, or even WinterWx, but I just don't see any cause for optimism. We've had a horrid storm track all winter long, every single "cold" shot has been underwhelming, and that SE ridge just doesn't want to budge. We're hanging our hopes on clippers and cutters to provide some front-end slop before the changeover. Doesn't seem like a recipe for success to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't have the technical knowledge of Bob, or even WinterWx, but I just don't see any cause for optimism. We've had a horrid storm track all winter long, every single "cold" shot has been underwhelming, and that SE ridge just doesn't want to budge. We're hanging our hopes on clippers and cutters to provide some front-end slop before the changeover. Doesn't seem like a recipe for success to me. Its a matter of expectations. I dont really get excited over snow to rain events, just to see snow falling from the sky. Be nice to have a few solid all snow events, or at least ones that don't turn to rain and end up as slop or get washed away completely. I think there will be chances in early February. I know some people here like to make a big deal over sun angle, or whine that two-thirds of winter has been wasted blah blah. But the reality is if we get a good area-wide snow event or two in the first half of February, no one will care about increasing sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 look folks, all I'm saying is, despite the cold that looks to be a lock as well as the pv being on our side of the Pole as Bob so astutely points out, I don't see a storm pattern that is conducive to getting any real events what constitutes a real event varies amongst us, but to me, I'm looking for at least 2" of snow that doesn't get immediately washed away from one who has lived in the area for 54 years and has followed winter weather like a hawk ever since the debacle of the 72/73 winter, you would think that ain't asking for much, wouldn't you......wouldn't you? apparently this year it is (so far) and since cold air w/o storm threats and an occasional hit look pretty meh right now, the frustration factor tells me we're better off getting warm if the 2nd half of met winter yields the same as the first half plus, I'm trying to parlay my stats with the CWG thinking maybe they need another winter weather Negative-Nancy on staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 You are wandering close to the "bethesdaboy" zone... Ha! I actually thought about that when I wrote it. I'm not trying to say I have some scientific reasoning behind it. It's just a hunch. With a cold pattern, we could easily get several events, so reaching or exceeding normals really isn't that big of a stretch. Sure, it might not happen, but if it does we shouldn't be shocked. Just happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't have the technical knowledge of Bob, or even WinterWx, but I just don't see any cause for optimism. We've had a horrid storm track all winter long, every single "cold" shot has been underwhelming, and that SE ridge just doesn't want to budge. We're hanging our hopes on clippers and cutters to provide some front-end slop before the changeover. Doesn't seem like a recipe for success to me. First bolded: Funniest thing I've ever read on this board. I have no technical knowledge. Second bolded: If that SE ridge could've held on just a bit yesterday we might have had some snow. It can help us sometimes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 What's discouraging to me is it's going to take the damn PV to drift past Lakes Superior and Huron for us to get 2 days with double-digit negative departures. The default is just warm for the last several years (decades?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I just using a simplistic approach. There appears to be a relatively active precip period after the 3 day chilly spell. The pna isn't tanking, the nao isn't going through the roof and 5h doesn't look god awful either. This in conjunction with our best climo period of winter will favor chances of snow vs no chance of snow. Even systems passing n&w will have cool airmasses behind them. Anything on the heels can start as frozen even with a crappy track. Time will tell but punting the rest of jan is silly unless things really go to hell. Which they might but I'm not seeing it yet at all unless you pick the worst panels in the lr and expect them to be 100% right. We have the pv on our side spinning around in canada for goodness sakes. Perfect patters are few and far between. Marginal are around all day long from the looks of things. Bob...considering the longer-term overall pattern of the last two winters, I think you're viewing the glass as 75% full, when it's actually less than half. IMO, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Bob...considering the longer-term overall pattern of the last two winters, I think you're viewing the glass as 75% full, when it's actually less than half. IMO, of course. Just take a tall cold drink of hr 189 on 12z gfs and get back to me. Oh, and qoute the part of my post about having something on the heels or a storm that cuts to the N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Just take a tall cold drink of hr 189 on 12z gfs and get back to me. Oh, and qoute the part of my post about having something on the heels or a storm that cuts to the N&W. I was just looking at that w/the SE ridge being so strong, that's probably the best shot for us to get snow.....cold front passes through, hangs up, and a low forms and rides up the coast I remember the good old days in the 70's and 80's when that actually happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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