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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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and considering tonight's storm and we have another 36 hrs, I bet it comes north like the rest have this year

Yes, no weenieism involved, I mean I'm scientifically looking at this one, and the trend is there. La ninaish setup, it comes to be expected. 

 

For those interested, NAM snowfall maps, around half an inch BWI, but DC 2", 3-6 for S of there, Wesland west of the bay except for those immediately bordering, 6-9 for Huff. 

 

Trends not done. 

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Yes, no weenieism involved, I mean I'm scientifically looking at this one, and the trend is there. La ninaish setup, it comes to be expected. 

 

For those interested, NAM snowfall maps, around half an inch BWI, but DC 2", 3-6 for S of there, Wesland west of the bay except for those immediately bordering, 6-9 for Huff. 

 

Trends not done. 

 

wonder what the other models do with it

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wonder what the other models do with it

GFS and Euro have been coming north, euro was closer at 12z, and the s/w strength was what I liked. Overall, if the confluence is more N+W, thats a big assist too, we want this storm to stay warmer for those near the M/D with a low that goes north. I've just been watching, don't give up. 

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Has the NAM completely been wrong within 48 hours before? Yes. But, it did just move the start-time up by a lot to the point that we're really talking about precip starting by Thursday morning. 36 hours in now....

NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose.

 

SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too.

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NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose.

 

SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too.

They've been coming north however, I'd check the next sref's. Not being cheap, but lets see what the 03z's say with fresh upper air data. JMA (for Ji) is essentially what the NAM shows, maybe a bit north. 

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NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose.

 

SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too.

NAM is crap. We all know it, but desperation will make a man or woman do and believe in anything. DC's not getting .5 and if we do, it'll be a cold rain. I'll be at BWI when it starts Thursday night...so I wish it would happen...at least I'd see snow before I head to Vegas

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They've been coming north however, I'd check the next sref's. Not being cheap, but lets see what the 03z's say with fresh upper air data. JMA (for Ji) is essentially what the NAM shows, maybe a bit north. 

If the GFS comes north, then we can start believing. How many times has the NAM been Lucy and treated us like Charlie Brown with the football..

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NAM on its own.. I'll take that bet, and plan to lose.

 

SREF has bumped north ever so slightly but it's still fringy up here at best. The NAM 500 low is a bit south of ideal in this area too.

NAM has been completely wrong within 24 hours too (as have the GFS and Euro)...it's has bounced around with lurching solutions in the past two days. Obviously, we need to see what the other models show, but it's at least an eye-brow raise at this point.

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NAM is crap. We all know it, but desperation will make a man or woman do and believe in anything. DC's not getting .5 and if we do, it'll be a cold rain. I'll be at BWI when it starts Thursday night...so I wish it would happen...at least I'd see snow before I head to Vegas

The GFS is going to give us sprinkles in short order.

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NAM has been completely wrong within 24 hours too (as have the GFS and Euro)...it's has bounced around with lurching solutions in the past two days. Obviously, we need to see what the other models show, but it's at least an eye-brow raise at this point.

I haven't been able to punt yet. It's maybe the most potentially interesting event IMBY so far this winter.
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NAM is crap. We all know it, but desperation will make a man or woman do and believe in anything. DC's not getting .5 and if we do, it'll be a cold rain. I'll be at BWI when it starts Thursday night...so I wish it would happen...at least I'd see snow before I head to Vegas

Plenty of "snow" in Vegas my friend

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Perhaps the best NAM catching-onto-a-snowstorm-run in the past few years was the 0Z 1/30/10 run that brought the 0.5" contour north through the area. GFS somewhat followed. LWX expanded the WWA's north and, as you all remember, had to upgrade them to warnings during the next morning.

Edited: Of course I'm not saying the solution tonight is likely--- The most interesting part to me is the drastic change in the time-frame we're looking at.

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Perhaps the best NAM catching-onto-a-snowstorm-run in the past few years was the 0Z 1/30/10 run that brought the 0.5" contour north through the area. GFS somewhat followed. LWX expanded the WWA's north and, as you all remember, had to upgrade them to warnings during the next morning.

 

The NAM is like a 14 seed in the NCAA tournament....every once in a while it wins or keeps it very close, but usually it loses by 30 pts

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