WVclimo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One of Usedtobe's favorite tools, the CPC D+11 analogs, showed up today with Jan 2000, Feb 1979, Feb 1972, Jan 1982, and Jan-Feb 1994. There's some great winter weather in those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One of Usedtobe's favorite tools, the CPC D+11 analogs, showed up today with Jan 2000, Feb 1979, Feb 1972, Jan 1982, and Jan-Feb 1994. There's some great winter weather in those dates. Those are indeed some nice dates. Man it's good to finally see and feel some excitement for what should be a legitimate period of winter around here! Been awhile. Really...quite awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 leesburg04 has had about the best record of anyone this year.. i'd seek out his thoughts He is going to take over jay hatem weather soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One of Usedtobe's favorite tools, the CPC D+11 analogs, showed up today with Jan 2000, Feb 1979, Feb 1972, Jan 1982, and Jan-Feb 1994. There's some great winter weather in those dates. Some of those date are not the from the super nsemble D+11. Jan 2000 does show up but not in the D+11 seven day window, Jan 1994 shows up but again with no snow storm in the 7 day window just bitter cold. Jan 1982 is there but for cold not snow, same with the 1994 date that you site. In the seven day window that are centered around the analog date, only 3 snows occurred, the biggest was 3.6" 1979 does not show up at all, it had huge blocking across Greenland, I do like the look of the Euro D+10, it's a real good one but is a day 10 forecast and we've seen them look good way more than we've seen KU storms. The ensembles are all over the place with the track of the clipper with some having a northern track like the euro. It's exciting to have two systems to watch this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Some of those date are not the from the super nsemble D+11. Jan 2000 does show up but not in the D+11 seven day window, Jan 1994 shows up but again with no snow storm in the 7 day window just bitter cold. Jan 1982 is there but for cold not snow, same with the 1994 date that you site. In the seven day window that are centered around the analog date, only 3 snows occurred, the biggest was 3.6" 1979 does not show up at all, it had huge blocking across Greenland, I do like the look of the Euro D+10, it's a real good one but is a day 10 forecast and we've seen them look good way more than we've seen KU storms. The ensembles are all over the place with the track of the clipper with some having a northern track like the euro. It's exciting to have two systems to watch this week. Thanks for the reply, Wes. I only have a link to that product I cited. Maybe you, or a fellow weenie, can lead me to the Super ensemble site. It is the most fun model-watching we've had in a long while. I'm excited for the cold and will take any kind of snow to sweeten it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 true.. it is pretty nice. the ens mean is not quite as nice tho. not that it matters i suppose. I think it matters a little bit as it has its lowest pressure over the Great Lakes at 240 hrs and more 18Z GEFS members have the low passing to our n than south. Still any solution is possible that far in advance. I note that the GEFS ensembles also have quite a few of the clipper systems more to our north. Lots of time and solutions to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks for the reply, Wes. I only have a link to that product I cited. Maybe you, or a fellow weenie, can lead me to the Super ensemble site. It is the most fun model-watching we've had in a long while. I'm excited for the cold and will take any kind of snow to sweeten it. Here's the url. go down to where it says analog and click on ensemble and that will yield you the superensemble. If you go to the D+8 forecast, you can do the same thing and even look at the CPC ens mean analogs (I tend not to use them but they are there). Also when you look at the dates for storms make sure they are in the 7 day window. If you move too far from the centered mean, the pattern could be quite different in some cases. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's the url. go down to where it says analog and click on ensemble and that will yield you the superensemble. If you go to the D+8 forecast, you can do the same thing and even look at the CPC ens mean analogs (I tend not to use them but they are there). Also when you look at the dates for storms make sure they are in the 7 day window. If you move too far from the centered mean, the pattern could be quite different in some cases. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11 Much obliged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's the url. Holy Grail been give. Thankies, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I just want to reiterate that Wes sais he's excited for not one but TWO threats to track....it's getting real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks for the link Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think 0Z NAM brings that southern system up a bit further north.....not saying it's snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 idk, that just looks interesting http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_300_wnd_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 idk, that just looks interesting http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_300_wnd_ht.gif Was trying to keep to myself about it, but ayy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Was trying to keep to myself about it, but ayy thru 36 hrs, the 5H vort is noticeably stronger than 18 z and already further north than 42hrs on 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 thru 36 hrs, the 5H vort is noticeably stronger than 18 z and already further north than 42hrs on 18z run I'm looking at 42 and...well...alright...see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 thru 36 hrs, the 5H vort is noticeably stronger than 18 z and already further north than 42hrs on 18z run The fast speed messed it up-- I think it comes north but 100% dependent on top down cooling from dynamics. The earlier snow solutions were 12 hours slower and some colder, drier air moved in first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 negative tilt on 5H at 39 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ding, ding, ding!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Huff @45....talk to me buddy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ding, ding, ding!!!! This is one of those times a handle bar mustache would be handy...just to twirl it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well ok...I mean warm but hey, hey, hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 48! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well ok...I mean warm but hey, hey, hey. winds are from the north, cold air is filtering in we need it another 50-75 for something real good imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For all those who chose option 9 or 10 in the other thread rejoice! #faithintheflakes #thetrendisyourfriend #northtrend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You know this storm here has come so far north, and I could tell after about hour 27 or 30, the vort was looking stronger and stronger and the tilt was better, thanks to confluence being better displaced to the west allowing the orientation to turn more negative. At h5 I'd definitely see a good storm for us, temps are soso, but hey I like where we are, and I think it really has a chance to come north. GFS and Euro have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Huff @45....talk to me buddy!!! Sick-- it's like 6-10 region wide in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You know this storm here has come so far north, and I could tell after about hour 27 or 30, the vort was looking stronger and stronger and the tilt was better, thanks to confluence being better displaced to the west allowing the orientation to turn more negative. At h5 I'd definitely see a good storm for us, temps are soso, but hey I like where we are, and I think it really has a chance to come north. GFS and Euro have been. and considering tonight's storm and we have another 36 hrs, I bet it comes north like the rest have this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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