TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 hmm. i didnt even realize it ran past 240 till now. Wait, you didn't? Goes out to 360 lol, haven't you ever heard DT's random ramblings about the 288 hr Euro? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wait, you didn't? Goes out to 360 lol, haven't you ever heard DT's random ramblings about the 288 hr Euro? lol i guess i never put it together. looks like a snizzle fest at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 looks like it could possibly end up mixing given the extrapolated track of the sfc low, though looks fine to start, but since it's not likely to happen as shown it probably doesn't matter. iow, it will end up a NE special....yeah, I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 it looks pretty nice from here. How are BL temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 How are BL temps? at 240+ hours?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 How are BL temps?i think mitchnick already looked at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's time to consider, and in fact I am predicting, the DC area (DCA/BWI/IAD/Andrews) will have 2-3 days of high temperautres not out of the 20's and lows 5-15. Mongolian high pressures delivers the cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's time to consider, and in fact I am predicting, the DC area (DCA/BWI/IAD/Andrews) will have 2-3 days of high temperautres not out of the 20's and lows 5-15. Mongolian high pressures delivers the cold again. I think 2 days is a pretty good bet...probably Tuesday and Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Monday night clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Monday night clipper? Just in time to bury Philly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Just in time to bury Philly north it hits us dude....I guessed you missed the part where you get 1-2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Heh, nice vort pass and surface low out in front kind popping.....this is the only way to get more than 1-2 in this pattern....heh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Monday night clipper? The 12z gfs ens show a variety of possibilities with this. I thought they did a good job of showing our current weather at about the same time frame. Any chance that low blows up closer to the coast, or just wishful thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 2nd event wednesday night...we gotta get something in this window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The 12z gfs ens show a variety of possibilities with this. I thought they did a good job of showing our current weather at about the same time frame. Any chance that low blows up closer to the coast, or just wishful thinking? our best chance is it digs deeper and we get 0.2-0.3" of liquid from the thump.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 event #3 friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 2nd event wednesday night...we gotta get something in this window... Yea, I saw that too. I was really diggin 12z run irt trough alignment and potential train of energy off the pac into BC. Looked like we could be in a nice spot. Maybe some of the shortwave features are getting resolved....or maybe we are getting sadistically teased again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The 12z gfs ens show a variety of possibilities with this. I thought they did a good job of showing our current weather at about the same time frame. Any chance that low blows up closer to the coast, or just wishful thinking? event #3 friday This is closer to the depiction of our better case scenarios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 event #3 friday That looks potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 our best chance is it digs deeper and we get 0.2-0.3" of liquid from the thump.... It's been a while since we've had thundersnow from a bombing clipper.... 75 miles to the south and a little more spin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This is closer to the depiction of our better case scenarios.... The ens are all over that one too. I think it's good for so many to see that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 From Hm I posted this over in the NE subforum and wanted it here too WRT the ECMWF run: Is it time to sound the KU alarms for Jan 25-27? The window here would open if the ECMWF is correct in lifting the entire polar vortex into the North Atlantic. The GFS is more robust in bringing down the blocking (down as in strat-->tropo and AO-->NAO) and holding the vortex in place instead of shifting out. Now the Jan 20-25 period will be a time, stratospherically, when anomalies will be squeezed through the N Atlantic-UK pipeline in an area of high PV. Is it possible the whole damn Arctic Source/tropo PV goes for the ride too? My early thoughts are that it ...gulp...won't move out quite that fast and the blocking will continue to trend stronger toward the 25th. While we can definitely see snow events during this period, I'm not sold yet on the ECMWF KU setup....but eventually the threat will become real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 considering the cold on the GFS in the medium range is a lock, if not also the long range, this is the best GFS run of this alleged winter imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Is the euro really a ku? That seems a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 From Hm I posted this over in the NE subforum and wanted it here too WRT the ECMWF run: Is it time to sound the KU alarms for Jan 25-27? The window here would open if the ECMWF is correct in lifting the entire polar vortex into the North Atlantic. The GFS is more robust in bringing down the blocking (down as in strat-->tropo and AO-->NAO) and holding the vortex in place instead of shifting out. Now the Jan 20-25 period will be a time, stratospherically, when anomalies will be squeezed through the N Atlantic-UK pipeline in an area of high PV. Is it possible the whole damn Arctic Source/tropo PV goes for the ride too? My early thoughts are that it ...gulp...won't move out quite that fast and the blocking will continue to trend stronger toward the 25th. While we can definitely see snow events during this period, I'm not sold yet on the ECMWF KU setup....but eventually the threat will become real. Feb 78 was an SV analog now for a couple days and you can see it played out on the 18z GFS twice including that time period with the same setup that HM Is talking about.....Euro is better because it has a southern stream by day 9....but yeah...same thing we get a massive 50-50 low with a ridge out west and a semi block.....I think we have to wait....but I would take the dirty, dummy end of a big 40N storm for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 considering the cold on the GFS in the medium range is a lock, if not also the long range, this is the best GFS run of this alleged winter imho I divorced myself from models for a while but started taking a good look once the cold seemed like a lock. 12z gfs opened my eyes a bit when I saw this panel: It was really easy to visualize the n stream pipeline. It's about as good a look as we've seen all year irt to snow chances. Not saying big snow by any means. Just snow chances. Nice alignment to the back side of the trough to move energy from northern BC right through our latitude. Now the 18z takes it a step further. I think the big takeaway from today is there will be ample shortwave energy aimed at our back yards for about a week. The huge question will be how potent and how deep can they dig? Can the track set up to bring one or more below us? I say yes to at least one. Can 2+ do it? Not sure. I do know that if they don't then the apps rob us and we get flurries at best. It would be a huge step if we get a 5h vort south AND and 850 low out in front. Kinda got a little excited with 18z but we still need about 75 more miles of dig to realize anything from the 850. You are in a better spot as is. I'm hoping I'm in a better spot come monday. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Is the euro really a ku? That seems a stretch. I think he just likes the setup which is pretty nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's an amplified pattern that has the potential to try and sneak something into DC...at least to this met. Yes the NAO isn't great, but any western ridge popping in combo with block north of AK could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think he just likes the setup which is pretty nasty true.. it is pretty nice. the ens mean is not quite as nice tho. not that it matters i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 There are plenty of caution flags with the euro. I know you can say this about every evolution but the whole "if this, then this, then this" applies quite a bit here. @ 168 there's a stone wall of a ridge all the way to alaksa: Then @ 192 the ridge relaxes and let's the energy come on in: And then it pops right back: I'm not saying the evolution is odd or unlikely because I far from smart enough to know that. But imo, all it would take is the ridge not relaxing as shown and the whole thing is off the table. And it's a d10+ threat so I don't even know why I'm posting this but it seemed worthy of pointing out anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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