Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 it's warm...not sure of precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Kmlwx, don't get your panties in a bunch!!! Relax and take a step back. At the moment I am still focused on this winter. With our luck it would not surprise me to see a La Niña winter next year. Probably comes from the consistent let downs for our winters overall. That's it and that's all I meant. The chances are extremely low for a La Niña next winter compared to history. Like I said earlier I don't think there has ever been 2 La Niña winters in a row followed with a neutral and then another La Niña after that. With our bad luck it will probably happen. That's all I meant and I don't mean it will happen or am I forecasting it. If I was I would justify my reasoning and if that time comes I don't have a problem doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 it's like the FEB events last winter...central/western VA get raked and we are 39 and spitting rain/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 just when it looks like it's going to turn into a bomb, it exists stage right rattsss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Looks like it may be close to snow in NOVA at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 500 a lot stronger than it was. N trend ftw. Cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 just when it looks like it's going to turn into a bomb, it exists stage right rattsss Close, look at this current system, came wayyy north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 it's like the FEB events last winter...central/western VA get raked and we are 39 and spitting rain/snow plenty of time for it to come further north and be another rain storm, you know the drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh yeah.. Nam is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 with this kind of system, pressures crash and so do temps rain to snow, and maybe heavy for you Agree if it does as modeled. I like NORTH of CHO for the snow here. Too many days to trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 with this kind of system, pressures crash and so do temps rain to snow, and maybe heavy for you Good catch. I like what I see from 75h-81h. All in all not a bad run. Now on to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 qpf from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh yeah.. Nam is lol persistent sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The flat northern stream, means models still have no clue where to put the troff axis. My guess is too far west or too far east and not in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 persistent sucker In still marginally interested but we get screwed so many ways its hard to see how we won't here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Definitely something to monitor. Changes seem to be happening as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The whole cooling process YESTERDAY when it showed snow for my area was 100% dry air-- the faster speed has taken that away and it's mostly rain, ending as some mix or sleet. It's not good. I think it trends another 100 miles north and is a decent event up near DC (maybe burbs, not proper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 In still marginally interested but we get screwed so many ways its hard to see how we won't here oh, I think we'll get screwed too the only way we don't is if it comes another 100 miles north and we get into the heavy precip with crashing temps but since I have no patience left to wait another 2-3 weeks, I'll put all my eggs in the NAM basket and keep my fingers crossed...and, of course, wear my pajamas inside out all week to and from work while traveling on public transportation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 oh, I think we'll get screwed too the only way we don't is if it comes another 100 miles north and we get into the heavy precip with crashing temps but since I have no patience left to wait another 2-3 weeks, I'll put all my eggs in the NAM basket and keep my fingers crossed...and, of course, wear my pajamas inside out all week to and from work while traveling on public transportation You are pulling out all the stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You are pulling out all the stops. oh no, I won't pull anything out, I promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS says nein. Its a crapshoot anyway since its like a blip on the threat screen till the time period Zwyts is aiming for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 anyone know what the Euro weeklies from today showed? I usually get it off the NE forum but there's too much going on to sift through their threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It showed cold snow and PNA -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam vs Gfs and euro. Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It showed cold snow and PNA -nao who needs models when you're around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the nam and gfs 500 low tracks are quite similar except the nam is a good deal stronger which keeps it a bit more nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the nam and gfs 500 low tracks are quite similar except the nam is a good deal stronger which keeps it a bit more nw. gfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif nam_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif Nam is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam is wrong good bet.. it's mostly rain anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 06z totally crushes the vort. Cold rain is no fun anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Everyone is talking about snow, which is appropriate, but this cold snap looks pretty solid. Both the GFS and Euro have the same timing, first front on Sunday and then another early Tuesday. If the modeled 850s are close, we should be staying in the 20s at DCA for highs. Not as cold as Jan '09, but certainly more impressive than we've been used to recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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