WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 event #3 friday That looks potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 our best chance is it digs deeper and we get 0.2-0.3" of liquid from the thump.... It's been a while since we've had thundersnow from a bombing clipper.... 75 miles to the south and a little more spin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This is closer to the depiction of our better case scenarios.... The ens are all over that one too. I think it's good for so many to see that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 From Hm I posted this over in the NE subforum and wanted it here too WRT the ECMWF run: Is it time to sound the KU alarms for Jan 25-27? The window here would open if the ECMWF is correct in lifting the entire polar vortex into the North Atlantic. The GFS is more robust in bringing down the blocking (down as in strat-->tropo and AO-->NAO) and holding the vortex in place instead of shifting out. Now the Jan 20-25 period will be a time, stratospherically, when anomalies will be squeezed through the N Atlantic-UK pipeline in an area of high PV. Is it possible the whole damn Arctic Source/tropo PV goes for the ride too? My early thoughts are that it ...gulp...won't move out quite that fast and the blocking will continue to trend stronger toward the 25th. While we can definitely see snow events during this period, I'm not sold yet on the ECMWF KU setup....but eventually the threat will become real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 considering the cold on the GFS in the medium range is a lock, if not also the long range, this is the best GFS run of this alleged winter imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Is the euro really a ku? That seems a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 considering the cold on the GFS in the medium range is a lock, if not also the long range, this is the best GFS run of this alleged winter imho I divorced myself from models for a while but started taking a good look once the cold seemed like a lock. 12z gfs opened my eyes a bit when I saw this panel: It was really easy to visualize the n stream pipeline. It's about as good a look as we've seen all year irt to snow chances. Not saying big snow by any means. Just snow chances. Nice alignment to the back side of the trough to move energy from northern BC right through our latitude. Now the 18z takes it a step further. I think the big takeaway from today is there will be ample shortwave energy aimed at our back yards for about a week. The huge question will be how potent and how deep can they dig? Can the track set up to bring one or more below us? I say yes to at least one. Can 2+ do it? Not sure. I do know that if they don't then the apps rob us and we get flurries at best. It would be a huge step if we get a 5h vort south AND and 850 low out in front. Kinda got a little excited with 18z but we still need about 75 more miles of dig to realize anything from the 850. You are in a better spot as is. I'm hoping I'm in a better spot come monday. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's an amplified pattern that has the potential to try and sneak something into DC...at least to this met. Yes the NAO isn't great, but any western ridge popping in combo with block north of AK could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I think he just likes the setup which is pretty nasty true.. it is pretty nice. the ens mean is not quite as nice tho. not that it matters i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 There are plenty of caution flags with the euro. I know you can say this about every evolution but the whole "if this, then this, then this" applies quite a bit here. @ 168 there's a stone wall of a ridge all the way to alaksa: Then @ 192 the ridge relaxes and let's the energy come on in: And then it pops right back: I'm not saying the evolution is odd or unlikely because I far from smart enough to know that. But imo, all it would take is the ridge not relaxing as shown and the whole thing is off the table. And it's a d10+ threat so I don't even know why I'm posting this but it seemed worthy of pointing out anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One of Usedtobe's favorite tools, the CPC D+11 analogs, showed up today with Jan 2000, Feb 1979, Feb 1972, Jan 1982, and Jan-Feb 1994. There's some great winter weather in those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One of Usedtobe's favorite tools, the CPC D+11 analogs, showed up today with Jan 2000, Feb 1979, Feb 1972, Jan 1982, and Jan-Feb 1994. There's some great winter weather in those dates. Those are indeed some nice dates. Man it's good to finally see and feel some excitement for what should be a legitimate period of winter around here! Been awhile. Really...quite awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 leesburg04 has had about the best record of anyone this year.. i'd seek out his thoughts He is going to take over jay hatem weather soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One of Usedtobe's favorite tools, the CPC D+11 analogs, showed up today with Jan 2000, Feb 1979, Feb 1972, Jan 1982, and Jan-Feb 1994. There's some great winter weather in those dates. Some of those date are not the from the super nsemble D+11. Jan 2000 does show up but not in the D+11 seven day window, Jan 1994 shows up but again with no snow storm in the 7 day window just bitter cold. Jan 1982 is there but for cold not snow, same with the 1994 date that you site. In the seven day window that are centered around the analog date, only 3 snows occurred, the biggest was 3.6" 1979 does not show up at all, it had huge blocking across Greenland, I do like the look of the Euro D+10, it's a real good one but is a day 10 forecast and we've seen them look good way more than we've seen KU storms. The ensembles are all over the place with the track of the clipper with some having a northern track like the euro. It's exciting to have two systems to watch this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Some of those date are not the from the super nsemble D+11. Jan 2000 does show up but not in the D+11 seven day window, Jan 1994 shows up but again with no snow storm in the 7 day window just bitter cold. Jan 1982 is there but for cold not snow, same with the 1994 date that you site. In the seven day window that are centered around the analog date, only 3 snows occurred, the biggest was 3.6" 1979 does not show up at all, it had huge blocking across Greenland, I do like the look of the Euro D+10, it's a real good one but is a day 10 forecast and we've seen them look good way more than we've seen KU storms. The ensembles are all over the place with the track of the clipper with some having a northern track like the euro. It's exciting to have two systems to watch this week. Thanks for the reply, Wes. I only have a link to that product I cited. Maybe you, or a fellow weenie, can lead me to the Super ensemble site. It is the most fun model-watching we've had in a long while. I'm excited for the cold and will take any kind of snow to sweeten it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 true.. it is pretty nice. the ens mean is not quite as nice tho. not that it matters i suppose. I think it matters a little bit as it has its lowest pressure over the Great Lakes at 240 hrs and more 18Z GEFS members have the low passing to our n than south. Still any solution is possible that far in advance. I note that the GEFS ensembles also have quite a few of the clipper systems more to our north. Lots of time and solutions to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks for the reply, Wes. I only have a link to that product I cited. Maybe you, or a fellow weenie, can lead me to the Super ensemble site. It is the most fun model-watching we've had in a long while. I'm excited for the cold and will take any kind of snow to sweeten it. Here's the url. go down to where it says analog and click on ensemble and that will yield you the superensemble. If you go to the D+8 forecast, you can do the same thing and even look at the CPC ens mean analogs (I tend not to use them but they are there). Also when you look at the dates for storms make sure they are in the 7 day window. If you move too far from the centered mean, the pattern could be quite different in some cases. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's the url. go down to where it says analog and click on ensemble and that will yield you the superensemble. If you go to the D+8 forecast, you can do the same thing and even look at the CPC ens mean analogs (I tend not to use them but they are there). Also when you look at the dates for storms make sure they are in the 7 day window. If you move too far from the centered mean, the pattern could be quite different in some cases. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11 Much obliged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's the url. Holy Grail been give. Thankies, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I just want to reiterate that Wes sais he's excited for not one but TWO threats to track....it's getting real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks for the link Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think 0Z NAM brings that southern system up a bit further north.....not saying it's snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 idk, that just looks interesting http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_300_wnd_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 idk, that just looks interesting http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_300_wnd_ht.gif Was trying to keep to myself about it, but ayy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Was trying to keep to myself about it, but ayy thru 36 hrs, the 5H vort is noticeably stronger than 18 z and already further north than 42hrs on 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 thru 36 hrs, the 5H vort is noticeably stronger than 18 z and already further north than 42hrs on 18z run I'm looking at 42 and...well...alright...see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 thru 36 hrs, the 5H vort is noticeably stronger than 18 z and already further north than 42hrs on 18z run The fast speed messed it up-- I think it comes north but 100% dependent on top down cooling from dynamics. The earlier snow solutions were 12 hours slower and some colder, drier air moved in first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 negative tilt on 5H at 39 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ding, ding, ding!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Huff @45....talk to me buddy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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