HM Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We (the Mid Atlantic) will get cold and possibly some light events as we watch folks well to our Northeast cash in with this upcoming pattern. The good news is that the modeling insists on developing a strong influx of ozone in the stratosphere into the North Atlantic / NAO regions with a dying polar vortex. So while initially the NAO may manifest as an East-Based event, it is quite possible the anomaly shifts west as we start February. I am with Matt that at the very least a couple of moderate events are on the way for Feb. Many of the ingredients are aligning for this possibility with analog support, Tropical Pacific-MJO support and stratosphere support. Now it's a matter of getting that jet stream to do its thing. I don't really see any signs of a torch. If the forcing makes it to phase 4-5-6 in Feb and the AO anomaly temporarily relaxes, that would be when we warm back up next month. But, I don't see any real big +AO on the way and it will likely continue negative, on average, through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 But, but, but...what about the CRAS??? I posted it but it disappeared.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro ensembles very supportive of the arctic outbreak next week, more so than I recall with the countless other arctic outbreaks the Op has shown. 192hrs also has suggestions of a coastal storm. I noticed that in the Euro ensembles. Positive height anomalies with ridging sort of arcing across the Pole from northern Asia to Greenland at 240h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 we have 850 temps of around -22 next Wednesday with an afternoon max in the low 20s and the core of the cold isnt here yet..I'm sure it is over done but I love it! The high pressure up at the pole and over is where I want it in order for the real cold stuff to get here in about 10 days, which would be next Tuesday/Wed. I am supposed to be in the Laurel Highlands then and elevations between 2,000-3,000 I dont think the temps would get out of single digits and nightime might be below zero. Also, lakes are wide open and these very week pertubations would be enough in the environment to kick off snow squall and showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The high pressure up at the pole and over is where I want it in order for the real cold stuff to get here in about 10 days, which would be next Tuesday/Wed. I am supposed to be in the Laurel Highlands then and elevations between 2,000-3,000 I dont think the temps would get out of single digits and nightime might be below zero. Also, lakes are wide open and these very week pertubations would be enough in the environment to kick off snow squall and showers. yes...your annual trip to SS...that would be great weather...Feb 2007 Tug Hill type weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro has -10 afternoon highs for MSP by next Tuesday http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=91607&source=0 Tuesday, January 15, 2013 will mark the 1,461st consecutive day (4 years) with high temperatures of 0°F or greater at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport. The last time the high failed to reach at least zero was on January 15, 2009 when the high was only -6°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 yes...your annual trip to SS...that would be great weather...Feb 2007 Tug Hill type weather I classify that afternoon on the elevated shore of Ontario as the second coldest I have ever been in my life. Around 10F, constant 35-40mph wind. Coldest ever was Inaguration morning 1985 at 2am, temp -2F and frequent gusts to 30mph, sustained 20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 lol for those dgex lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The h5 went from nice and closed at 66 to sheared crap at 81... confluence ftl on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 lol for those dgex lovers Every dog model has its day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The h5 went from nice and closed at 66 to sheared crap at 81... confluence ftl on the 18z GFS people are actually thinking this storm might hit us?..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 people are actually thinking this storm might hit us?..lol Not directly no... I was more hoping for a stray band of light snow or flurries really from this thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 people are actually thinking this storm might hit us?..lol I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I believe statistically a Nino is favored next winter. One of the mets mentioned it a few weeks ago I believe. Where you getting your information/what are you basing it on. Gut?I am not basing anything about next year. I am just ticked off with the consistent let downs. Crap comes in 3's it seems in life in general. Why not the weather? It would be crappy to see a La Niña next winter and without any luck that we never or hardly get. It would not surprise me to see a La Niña. Personally I am still focused on this winter but the screws to us in the future are never surprising anymore. I don't think there has been 2 La Niña's followed with a neutral and then another La Niña. I would have to look that one up. Ps: you take to many things out of contexts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I hope not. But it's not a lock it won't hit us at all. I realize the most accurate models say no but confluence can be tricky and tough to model more than a couple of days prior. I learned that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 With that 1056+ high riding up out of Siberia and moving SE through western Canada, the mild weather shouldn't last much longer beyond that time frame. the cold does come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We (the Mid Atlantic) will get cold and possibly some light events as we watch folks well to our Northeast cash in with this upcoming pattern. The good news is that the modeling insists on developing a strong influx of ozone in the stratosphere into the North Atlantic / NAO regions with a dying polar vortex. So while initially the NAO may manifest as an East-Based event, it is quite possible the anomaly shifts west as we start February. I am with Matt that at the very least a couple of moderate events are on the way for Feb. Many of the ingredients are aligning for this possibility with analog support, Tropical Pacific-MJO support and stratosphere support. Now it's a matter of getting that jet stream to do its thing. I don't really see any signs of a torch. If the forcing makes it to phase 4-5-6 in Feb and the AO anomaly temporarily relaxes, that would be when we warm back up next month. But, I don't see any real big +AO on the way and it will likely continue negative, on average, through March. Off the top of your head, can you recall a winter that went similar to this one in the stratosphere and had a slow death of sorts that took us to an early PV breakdown, -AO right through March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Every dog model has its day. SREF members are all over the place. It all depends on how much SW ridging is allowed to build ahead of the low . Would not be shocked if this storm suddenly comes north 60hrs out like October 2011 or Dec 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Sure are a lot of lows popping up just off the coast in the 18z run. I saw one or two vorts south of us, but they were losing their punch as they got to the coast. maybe we can get lucky with one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The high pressure up at the pole and over is where I want it in order for the real cold stuff to get here in about 10 days, which would be next Tuesday/Wed. I am supposed to be in the Laurel Highlands then and elevations between 2,000-3,000 I dont think the temps would get out of single digits and nightime might be below zero. Also, lakes are wide open and these very week pertubations would be enough in the environment to kick off snow squall and showers. Want me to join you? We can get some beers, find an oyster bar. It'll be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Has something changed at the HPC in the way they arrive at winter weather forecasts? They've been strangely aggressive this season so far. Like, what's up with this really high probability of more than a trace of freezing rain for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Want me to join you? We can get some beers, find an oyster bar. It'll be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I am not basing anything about next year. I am just ticked off with the consistent let downs. Crap comes in 3's it seems in life in general. Why not the weather? It would be crappy to see a La Niña next winter and without any luck that we never or hardly get. It would not surprise me to see a La Niña. Personally I am still focused on this winter but the screws to us in the future are never surprising anymore. I don't think there has been 2 La Niña's followed with a neutral and then another La Niña. I would have to look that one up. Ps: you take to many things out of contexts. How did I take it out of context? You straight out said we had a possible La Nina coming next year. lol...I can quote the post if you want. Not trying to be rude...(most here will tell you I am pretty well mannered compared to others). I'm just saying - don't tell me I take things out of context when you clearly said we were coming up into a possible La Nina next winter. You said it. How was I supposed to interpret it? I was just asking how you arrived at that conclusion (reasonable question given your post). So you are now in this post saying that you have no evidence...just that bad things come in 3's? If so that's fine...but I was just asking what your evidence was in the original post. Goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 looking at the NAM at 48 hrs, I'd give my third born if it doesn't come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 looking at the NAM at 48 hrs, I'd give my third born if it doesn't come north I agree. It's coming north and looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 looking at the NAM at 48 hrs, I'd give my third born if it doesn't come north Seems to be 12 hours quicker than 18z unless I made a mistake. Same location at 60 hrs.now compared to 72 hrs. at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I agree. It's coming north and looks warm. This for our region-- won't get any diurnal cooling- would be shocked if it show snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Seems to be 12 hours quicker than 18z unless I made a mistake. Yes it is. Also has higher heights ahead of the storm and a NRN stream torff axis further west. May not show a hit, but it's a better run than 18z IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 This for our region-- won't get any diurnal cooling- would be shocked if it show snow for us. with this kind of system, pressures crash and so do temps rain to snow, and maybe heavy for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.