aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GFS seems like a 2-3" snow with those temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 gymengineer, These values are generated based from HPC's "autoensemble", which is a 28 member ensemble that includes operational model runs as well as 21 SREF members...while the "mode" is the actually deterministic snow/ice forecast based from the HPC winter weather forecaster. I have too noticed that at times this autoensemble is a bit robust when it comes to the ice accumulation threat, especially with the lower thresholds. I think part of that's a function of being correlated with the high resolution SREF ARW and NMMB members. At any rate, while these autoensemble probabilities are unedited, the HPC winter weather forecaster does have the final call on the 10, 40, and 70% probabilities of the 4, 8, and 12" snowfall amounts as well as 0.25" ice amounts. A bit confusing probably, but this link will probably provide more clarity: http://origin.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml Excellent overview of the methodology! Here are the two papers referenced at the bottom if anyone wants to dig in deeper: Real-Time Forecasting of Snowfall Using a Neural Network, Roebber, et. al.pdf Precip Type Forecasting using NAM and SREF Data, Manikin.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks das and WxMan1 for the info on that. Looks like some good evening reading tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It does seem like they have been non-existent but we also haven't really had a good pv like this one in almost 8 years. Even when we had good blocking in 09-10 it really wasn't an arctic airmass. Clippers like arctic airmasses. THUNDERSNOW! Wait, didn't we have one in 2010 and a couple in 2011 (that bombed out and slammed NE)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wait, didn't we have one in 2010 and a couple in 2011 (that bombed out and slammed NE)? Jan 2010 is the only one I remember. I try to forget 2011-12 every waking day. We've had some good ones here over the years. I would faint if a nice 5h vort passed between cho and ric and an 850 low pops just east of the br. One 3-6 like this and all is good with the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GFS seems like a 2-3" snow with those temps... 4-6" lollies for Mt. Tollberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 lets clipper our way to 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 4-6" lollies for Mt. Tollberg? That's a lot on top of Dave's head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wow, such optimism and I've only been gone since yesterday afternoon. I must have missed something while writing my CWG post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wow, such optimism and I've only been gone since yesterday afternoon. I must have missed something while writing my CWG post. Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 euro coming on way north as well precip into dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? My guess is that Wes has already spotted and is talking about the next warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 My guess is that Wes has already spotted and is talking about the next warm up Or maybe less hope in moisture starved clippers at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? Looks great if you're writing the Horoscope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 euro coming on way north as well precip into dc Hows it look on our latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'll have to say this board did a pretty damn good job of identifying this upcoming cold snap weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hows it look on our latitude?near 0.50" at ric trace near dc, cho. roa lyh near 0.25" surface is a hair warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 euro is pretty cold for JYO tonight. Temps at 33 with 850 temps at 0.5 with lots of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Optimism isn't the right word. More like the lemon / lemonade thingy. I can probably sum up your article: "Cold is on the way but no significant snow chances to go with it. Analogs suggest a cold spell that hasn't been seen since 04 or 05. Unfortunately, the only snow changes in the next couple weeks will be moisture starved clippers". How did I do? I was going to answer but then deleted. I want peeps to read my article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 i would say in va it's all rain to start with southwestern areas switching over to snow at some point and this snow line heads east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 i would say in va it's all rain to start with southwestern areas switching over to snow at some point and this snow line heads east Most models lately have only really had snow largely confined just NW of the upper low. Haven't seen the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Most models lately have only really had snow largely confined just NW of the upper low. Haven't seen the Euro.the upper came in stronger this run. the upper almost goes neg tilt then it hits ga. and goes screaming east and then poof off the sc. coast in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the upper came in stronger this run. the upper almost goes neg tilt then it hits ga. and goes screaming east and then poof off the sc. coast in 6 hours Heck I was hoping you had found a clipper in the longer ranges and were posting about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Heck I was hoping you had found a clipper in the longer ranges and were posting about it.not yet but some nice vodka coming into ND/SD with -28c plowing down at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 tues will see the hi's at midnight. one heck of a cold front temps will fall all day. 12z 1.22.13 has ric at 32 ---- by 18z we are in the 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 tues will see the hi's at midnight. one heck of a cold front temps will fall all day. 12z 1.22.13 has ric at 32 ---- by 18z we are in the 20's Any QPF with the front ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Super cold doesn't last all that long on the Euro.. moderates after a day or two. No precip after the cooldown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Super cold doesn't last all that long on the Euro.. moderates after a day or two. No precip after the cooldown. After a brief relaxation at the end of next week, it looks like the west coast ridge bulges up again at Day 10 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 After a brief relaxation at the end of next week, it looks like the west coast ridge bulges up again at Day 10 ?Yeah.. tho no major cold reload that I see. However, there might be a snowstorm for day 11.. well, really like right after the run ends as precip is working into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Super cold doesn't last all that long on the Euro.. moderates after a day or two. No precip after the cooldown. ain't there something cooking in the central plains on Day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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