WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Most of the skilled forecasters were skeptical all along-- Mostly incorrect. Wes was but Don, Dave and a lot of NYC and NE posters were agog over the winter pattern they foresaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 hard to believe that this 500mb map has essentially a zero reflection on the surfacehttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif looks like a dry frontal passage. i guess the GOM is closed for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 La nada following La nina sucks for a reason---warmer/little snow (at least early on). More hope for later half of winter as Nina hangover may fade and blocking may increase. For now, the next couple of weeks look....zzzzzzzzzzz. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Like I said many days ago. I Am not canceling winter but the talk is in the air already. Patience to anyone in an uproar over no snow yet. Hopefully we can squeeze something out with the possible sign of SSW going to take place. The cold will return by months end. I am not sweating the CFS2 at this moment yet. This sure does remind me of a La'Nina like winter as well. Back in July many of us were expecting an El' Niño winter. What a disaster it has been but it could be worse and like last year. Happy New Years to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 La nada following La nina sucks for a reason---warmer/little snow (at least early on). More hope for later half of winter as Nina hangover may fade and blocking may increase. For now, the next couple of weeks look....zzzzzzzzzzz.MDstorm According to 18z run, after ten days, a more active pattern develops, and that has to be more encouraging that the upcoming week to ten days. Rain is featured with even a coastal storm at the end of the run. Two weeks on;two weeks off. That may be our pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Like I said many days ago. I Am not canceling winter but the talk is in the air already. Patience to anyone in an uproar over no snow yet. Hopefully we can squeeze something out with the possible sign of SSW going to take place. The cold will return by months end. I am not sweating the CFS2 at this moment yet. This sure does remind me of a La'Nina like winter as well. Back in July many of us were expecting an El' Niño winter. What a disaster it has been but it could be worse and like last year. Happy New Years to everyone! Just a reminder.It's January 1 not March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 How ironic for the 3rd time I never said I was canceling winter. The attitude and certain post describes what I said. There is plenty of time to get in on some action. I am not concerned at all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 all comes down to Sandy it may have not been technically the month of October, but close enough generally speaking, most places that got snow in 10/11 storm got it in Sandy (not necessarily around I95 in the MA, but further north) the curse of the early season storm that has to be the reason for this garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 How ironic for the 3rd time I never said I was canceling winter. The attitude and certain post describes what I said. There is plenty of time to get in on some action. I am not concerned at all!! I read over the NE forum that JB is even ready to throw in the towel based on Euro weeklies that will give any weenie pause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 2m temps are the freebies of the day at the Euro site today take a look at Day 10 12z as bad as the temps look, note the wind direction....they're from the south over the entire east coast! http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!240!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2013010112!!/ maybe it's time to root for new records going the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ2 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I read over the NE forum that JB is even ready to throw in the towel based on Euro weekliesthat will give any weenie pause Yep. Never seen him so distraught before. Tried to explain it away in typical JB fashion but even he could not based on the weeklies good track record. Definitely said wihter could be over. I was stunned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 It would be hard to vote against below avg snow compared to normal for the rest of winter in DC at least. The historical odds favor it. I'm not sure losing most of Jan is inconsequential should it happen. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Yep. Never seen him so distraught before. Tried to explain it away in typical JB fashion but even he could not based on the weeklies good track record. Definitely said wihter could be over. I was stunned Those guys freak out when they get only 80% of normal snowfall for a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I'd consider 6" from here out a success at this point even though it's awful. Like area events: 2-4/3-6, a 1-3 and a dusting to 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I have already punted this winter. Moving forward, I expect 3/4 winters to end up below normal snowfall. DC may as well be Richmond. It should only get worse. Have to remind ourselves we live in the Subtropics in a time of a clear warming period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Subtropics" data-cid="1976824" data-time="1357101318"><p> I have already punted this winter. Moving forward, I expect 3/4 winters to end up below normal snowfall. DC may as well be Richmond. It should only get worse.<br /> <br /> Have to remind ourselves we live in the Subtropics in a time of a clear warming period.</p></blockquote> We did just get 70 inches 3 years ago. Should have known we'd pay for it sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Not what we want to see with both the 00Z ensemble runs of the GFS and the Euro in good agreement with each other at day 10. Pretty depressing runs once again if you are hoping for winter weather on the east coast in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 we've seen both of those weekly temp maps from the CFS2 this fall/winter the top one has verified more than once, the bottom one has never verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 we've seen both of those weekly temp maps from the CFS2 this fall/winterthe top one has verified more than once, the bottom one has never verified We will see. If we wind up with no precip, it kinda doesn't matter. So I will take warm and dry please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 we've seen both of those weekly temp maps from the CFS2 this fall/winterthe top one has verified more than once, the bottom one has never verified okay but the top one shows massive cold coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 okay but the top one shows massive cold coming this is the same product from the CFS2 on 12/19/12 look at the forecast periods you decide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The CFSv2 is junk. Except when it shows warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 The CFSv2 is junk.Except when it shows warmth. oh, today's temp maps may be right, but if they are, you can be certain the corresponding precip ones will be too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Warm, wet. Cold, dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Keep my fingers crossed that by the end of this month the SSW event will finally give us much colder weather we all have been looking for. Next 2 weeks don't look so great unless something on the models is suppressed which right now I am not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Hard not to be interested in this feature. It's only hr 108. No surface reflection other than very light precip but still...this resembles something sneaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Keep my fingers crossed that by the end of this month the SSW event will finally give us much colder weather we all have been looking for.Next 2 weeks don't look so great unless something on the models is suppressed which right now I am not seeing it. Didn't we play this game last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Hard not to be interested in this feature. It's only hr 108. No surface reflection other than very light precip but still...this resembles something sneaky. 12zgfs500.JPG I'm with you but this is basically a kick in the nuts. This wave was timed very nicely in the long range using a lot of factors but the PJ and PV are retreating so quickly. It really is a shame that we couldn't hold on to some semblance of amplification to allow for this wave to do its thing. Then we would be talking Mid Atlantic winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Hard not to be interested in this feature. It's only hr 108. No surface reflection other than very light precip but still...this resembles something sneaky. 12zgfs500.JPG Bob, it looked better than that on Monday and there was no surface reflection....I give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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