January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[nflwxman]

This is generally when we see the GFS starting to correct north.  However, it won't look like the train wreck NAM. I'm not sure it will help out DC, but RIC and maybe EZF could get in the light snow action.

[mitchnick]

my thoughts are littered above.. i mean, i wasnt really expecting anything but what else is there except wretched cold to talk about

long range just looks bleh with cold and dry pattern

[clueless]

long range just looks bleh with cold and dry pattern

I am hoping this changes in the next day or two. Ahem. Better yet run or two.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Accuwx shows my coldest day as being next Wed with a high of 31F.  Really?  All this talk and tracking of the arctic air mass and the coldest air is 31F?  Still a week away, and it's Accuwx, I guess.

[Ian]

Accuwx shows my coldest day as being next Wed with a high of 31F.  Really?  All this talk and tracking of the arctic air mass and the coldest air is 31F?  Still a week away, and it's Accuwx, I guess.

leesburg04 has had about the best record of anyone this year.. i'd seek out his thoughts

[mitchnick]

I am hoping this changes in the next day or two.

generally speaking, that has pretty much been showing up on all the mr and lr models

I now use the CFS2 to see if it has a lousy forecast for us because they always verify and the good ones don't

FEB temp forecast is incredibly cold and the precip forecast is as dry as you can get

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

thus I feel confident in saying that by March 1 those who wanted cold regardless of snowfall will have had it

[MN Transplant]

DC jackpot!

 

[mitchnick]

anyone else using NCEP stuck at 111 hrs?

[yoda]

^ 20:1 ratios!

[Bob Chill]

Accuwx shows my coldest day as being next Wed with a high of 31F.  Really?  All this talk and tracking of the arctic air mass and the coldest air is 31F?  Still a week away, and it's Accuwx, I guess.

 

Accuwx just has automated output so their forecast past 5 days or so change like every 3 hours. I personally don't expect the coldest of the airmass to hit us until next weekend. It looks like it takes 5-6 days to start the real amplification process for the trough to dig deep. There will likely be a series of reinforcing shots after the gl lows crosses to our north next week. I personally think this cold shot is going to be impressive overall. Prob have to go back to 2005 or earlier to beat it. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I am hoping this changes in the next day or two. Ahem. Better yet run or two.

 

Given the way its going, it will...............to a dry and much less cold look.

[clueless]

generally speaking, that has pretty much been showing up on all the mr and lr models

I now use the CFS2 to see if it has a lousy forecast for us because they always verify and the good ones don't

FEB temp forecast is incredibly cold and the precip forecast is as dry as you can get

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

thus I feel confident in saying that by March 1 those who wanted cold regardless of snowfall will have had it

Generally speaking any lousy forecast verifies. Rule of thumb regardless of the merit of any particular model. We are so easy...

[WinterWxLuvr]

anyone else using NCEP stuck at 111 hrs?

 

Getting ready to explode again?

[Bob Chill]

if we can get any kind of pulse during that stretch we could get an inch out of very little liquid

 

I think we'll get a couple light qpf shots during the cold stretch. Spokes and vorts are likely and models won't pick up on those for a week. 

[Bob Chill]

Doubt the gfs is right but the setup at 5h in the lr is a bit attractive. Active feed of pac energy into BC and nice trajectory downstream. We could get n-streamed to death. We'll make a dent  1" at a time. lol

[clskinsfan]

Given the way its going, it will...............to a dry and much less cold look.

 

 

I am pretty confident the cold is coming. But I'm afraid the dry is coming with it. Once the cold starts to relax we may have a shot. And the models have hinted at something like that in the long range.

[WVclimo]

12Z GFS finally starting to show some QPF from the fetch off the Lakes most of next week.  Been waiting to see that, as you'd expect that with a NW flow of arctic air.

[Bob Chill]

I am pretty confident the cold is coming. But I'm afraid the dry is coming with it. Once the cold starts to relax we may have a shot. And the models have hinted at something like that in the long range.

 

I think we can be confident that the dry is coming too. No signs of split flow / ss interaction. I agree with zwyts with one exception. We get at least one vort passing through central VA. GFS has that look at least. I'll gladly take an ice cold 1-3 / 2-4 over a melt in a day 4-6 slopfest. 

[Kmlwx]

Doubt the gfs is right but the setup at 5h in the lr is a bit attractive. Active feed of pac energy into BC and nice trajectory downstream. We could get n-streamed to death. We'll make a dent  1" at a time. lol

 

Meh. I don't want little quarter sized hail dents. I want this kind of dent

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

why would you use some accuweather automated output for over a week from now?...do you even read this forum?

 

Well, I did preface the remark that it was +7 days Accuwx forecast.  Ordinarily, I'd just dismiss such garbage, but we've had a real history thus far of modeled cold air shots not exactly coming to fruition.

 

Anyway, I'll put my faith in Bob's First and Final Call forecast of real cold coming next weekend.

[Bob Chill]

Meh. I don't want little quarter sized hail dents. I want this kind of dent

 

 

Is that your moms old car? LOL

 

 

Here's d6-10 precip. All snow. Could be 1-2 that sticks around for a week.

 

 

[Ji]

I imagine we'll get at least 1-2 events where the vort goes through PA and we get glorified cartoppers or maybe even an inch

 

with a good western ridge, there is a good chance of a vort passing to our south on the occasion

[MN Transplant]

Fully in agreement with what zwyts, Bob, and others are saying.  We can eek out light snow very easily in these types of patterns.  I do like the Tuesday time period with that second push of cold.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

All the local ponds will be solidly frozen if the GFS verifies longterm. Impressive looking cold.

[WVclimo]

Well, I did preface the remark that it was +7 days Accuwx forecast.  Ordinarily, I'd just dismiss such garbage, but we've had a real history thus far of modeled cold air shots not exactly coming to fruition.

 

Anyway, I'll put my faith in Bob's First and Final Call forecast of real cold coming next weekend.

You won't have to wait that long. Sunday will probably have steady or falling temps during the day for us.  Monday we stay below freezing.  Tuesday and Wednesday we may have trouble getting out of the teens.

[Bob Chill]

You won't have to wait that long. 

 

Ur prob right. Euro and gfs want to push the first big dump in these parts by mid next week. Judging by how cold the models want to go, this may be the coldest shot of the pattern. Or maybe a decent clipper helps pull the pv further south and we get even colder before the end of the month. 

 

It is interesting that this pattern is mostly pac driven. NAO isn't really forcing it. Maybe we hit paydirt when the pac ridge starts breaking down and THEN the nao goes strong neg. There really are a lot of possibilities down the road. Too bad there is almost a zero % chance we get any help from the gulf for the next 7-10 days. 

[H2O]

Ur prob right. Euro and gfs want to push the first big dump in these parts by mid next week. Judging by how cold the models want to go, this may be the coldest shot of the pattern. Or maybe a decent clipper helps pull the pv further south and we get even colder before the end of the month. 

 

It is interesting that this pattern is mostly pac driven. NAO isn't really forcing it. Maybe we hit paydirt when the pac ridge starts breaking down and THEN the nao goes strong neg. There really are a lot of possibilities down the road. Too bad there is almost a zero % chance we get any help from the gulf for the next 7-10 days. 

 

Tapping the gulf sure does help but often introduces temp profile issues where sleet mixes and down towards Wes they get rain.  Give me a choo choo train of clippers that drop a little each time and re-enforce the cold to make it last.  Big thumps then warm ups make me think it shouldn't have even happened in the first place.

[EastCoast NPZ]

You won't have to wait that long. Sunday will probably have steady or falling temps during the day for us.  Monday we stay below freezing.  Tuesday and Wednesday we may have trouble getting out of the teens.

 

That would be impressive, especially without the help of snow cover.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Tapping the gulf sure does help but often introduces temp profile issues where sleet mixes and down towards Wes they get rain.  Give me a choo choo train of clippers that drop a little each time and re-enforce the cold to make it last.  Big thumps then warm ups make me think it shouldn't have even happened in the first place.

 

I like that too, but it seems like we never see clippers any more.  Maybe we can get a couple.

[Bob Chill]

I like that too, but it seems like we never see clippers any more.  Maybe we can get a couple.

 

It does seem like they have been non-existent but we also haven't really had a good pv like this one in almost 8 years. Even when we had good blocking in 09-10 it really wasn't an arctic airmass. Clippers like arctic airmasses. THUNDERSNOW!