Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 500 a lot stronger than it was. N trend ftw. Cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 just when it looks like it's going to turn into a bomb, it exists stage right rattsss Close, look at this current system, came wayyy north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 it's like the FEB events last winter...central/western VA get raked and we are 39 and spitting rain/snow plenty of time for it to come further north and be another rain storm, you know the drill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh yeah.. Nam is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 with this kind of system, pressures crash and so do temps rain to snow, and maybe heavy for you Agree if it does as modeled. I like NORTH of CHO for the snow here. Too many days to trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 with this kind of system, pressures crash and so do temps rain to snow, and maybe heavy for you Good catch. I like what I see from 75h-81h. All in all not a bad run. Now on to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 qpf from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Oh yeah.. Nam is lol persistent sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The flat northern stream, means models still have no clue where to put the troff axis. My guess is too far west or too far east and not in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 persistent sucker In still marginally interested but we get screwed so many ways its hard to see how we won't here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Definitely something to monitor. Changes seem to be happening as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The whole cooling process YESTERDAY when it showed snow for my area was 100% dry air-- the faster speed has taken that away and it's mostly rain, ending as some mix or sleet. It's not good. I think it trends another 100 miles north and is a decent event up near DC (maybe burbs, not proper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 In still marginally interested but we get screwed so many ways its hard to see how we won't here oh, I think we'll get screwed too the only way we don't is if it comes another 100 miles north and we get into the heavy precip with crashing temps but since I have no patience left to wait another 2-3 weeks, I'll put all my eggs in the NAM basket and keep my fingers crossed...and, of course, wear my pajamas inside out all week to and from work while traveling on public transportation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 oh, I think we'll get screwed too the only way we don't is if it comes another 100 miles north and we get into the heavy precip with crashing temps but since I have no patience left to wait another 2-3 weeks, I'll put all my eggs in the NAM basket and keep my fingers crossed...and, of course, wear my pajamas inside out all week to and from work while traveling on public transportation You are pulling out all the stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You are pulling out all the stops. oh no, I won't pull anything out, I promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS says nein. Its a crapshoot anyway since its like a blip on the threat screen till the time period Zwyts is aiming for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 anyone know what the Euro weeklies from today showed? I usually get it off the NE forum but there's too much going on to sift through their threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It showed cold snow and PNA -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam vs Gfs and euro. Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It showed cold snow and PNA -nao who needs models when you're around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the nam and gfs 500 low tracks are quite similar except the nam is a good deal stronger which keeps it a bit more nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the nam and gfs 500 low tracks are quite similar except the nam is a good deal stronger which keeps it a bit more nw. gfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif nam_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif Nam is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nam is wrong good bet.. it's mostly rain anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 06z totally crushes the vort. Cold rain is no fun anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Everyone is talking about snow, which is appropriate, but this cold snap looks pretty solid. Both the GFS and Euro have the same timing, first front on Sunday and then another early Tuesday. If the modeled 850s are close, we should be staying in the 20s at DCA for highs. Not as cold as Jan '09, but certainly more impressive than we've been used to recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Has something changed at the HPC in the way they arrive at winter weather forecasts? They've been strangely aggressive this season so far. Like, what's up with this really high probability of more than a trace of freezing rain for the area? gymengineer, These values are generated based from HPC's "autoensemble", which is a 28 member ensemble that includes operational model runs as well as 21 SREF members...while the "mode" is the actually deterministic snow/ice forecast based from the HPC winter weather forecaster. I have too noticed that at times this autoensemble is a bit robust when it comes to the ice accumulation threat, especially with the lower thresholds. I think part of that's a function of being correlated with the high resolution SREF ARW and NMMB members. At any rate, while these autoensemble probabilities are unedited, the HPC winter weather forecaster does have the final call on the 10, 40, and 70% probabilities of the 4, 8, and 12" snowfall amounts as well as 0.25" ice amounts. A bit confusing probably, but this link will probably provide more clarity: http://origin.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Once we get past this weekend (at the very least) it looks like any precip would be frozen. Models are mostly dry but there is plenty of room for a ns system to get below us. Especially after the gl low gets out of the way and the trough digs deep. Polar 500 loop on the last 2 runs of the gfs shows a pretty fast flow with some energy coming out of west central canada from time to time. It's going to be tough until the depth and axis of the eastern trough sets up more favorably. Early on the storm track is still to the north but things amplify by hr 150 or so. There is a big closed 500 low in the pac between baja and hawaii. It does drift towards mexico through time. PIeces will eject from this from time to time. Not an ideal placement for getting some sort of split flow phase type of scecnario but it's not a bad thing having that feature in the pac either. No signs of anything coming through the the sw anytime soon. Not that anything was expected though. The big ridge of HP in the west is quite the wall for any kind of system to hit the CA coast. IMO- there are only 2 options going forward for now. Having a juicy clipper take a good track once the trough deepens and the axis sets up in a better spot or some sort of phase from ns energy coming out of canada meeting up with a piece that gets ejected from the closed low in the pac. Otherwise we sit and wait until the closed low in the pac traverses mexico and hope we still have an amplified pattern at the time. All in all it looks cold with precip falling as snow if there is any precip in the area. Going to be tough for anything moisture laden to get here for a while. And things will change 100 times between now and next weekend anyway. I took some time this morning too look at the nh circ in the lr and this is what I'm seeing fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 gfs coming in much further north with the precip this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 im jogging up for the punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 lol..you haven't punted yet?..my thoughts are littered above.. i mean, i wasnt really expecting anything but what else is there except wretched cold to talk about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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