Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Depends on the 500h and 700mb low track, if it were south of us we'd get precip but it is the nam at 84 hrs so the whole set up could be wrong. I'd like to see another model (not the Korean one) jump towards the solution. Wes, remember when I pointed this feature out a couple days ago but the great lakes low was also in the panels? GL low is gone now. This is our best chance at accum snow in the next week or so. As slim as it may appear, having some decent 5h vorticity passing south of us when cool air is around is something that this winter has completely lacked door to door so far. We can get something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Pretty decent closed h5 vort in W AL at 84 on the 12z GFS, but I think confluence is going to crush it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wes, remember when I pointed this feature out a couple days ago but the great lakes low was also in the panels? GL low is gone now. This is our best chance at accum snow in the next week or so. As slim as it may appear, having some decent 5h vorticity passing south of us when cool air is around is something that this winter has completely lacked door to door so far. We can get something here. NAM has the vortex in Canada flatter than the GFS so it lets it come north GFS is holding it back some so that the vortex trough is pulling back NE; I'm hoping if the vortex can survive, it could get yanked north by the western lobe of the vortex coming down to reinforce the cold but I daydream too often about snow it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GFS crushes it again we'll see maybe we can catch a break for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 NAM has the vortex in Canada flatter than the GFS so it lets it come north GFS is holding it back some so that the vortex trough is pulling back NE; I'm hoping if the vortex can survive, it could get yanked north by the western lobe of the vortex coming down to reinforce the cold but I daydream too often about snow it seems Unfortunately, as it appears now the chance is slim. Pretty big stone wall of confluence to the N isn't going to let this get it's act together easily and come north. The ironic thing is we couldn't buy a "stone wall" with closed ull's in Dec. Every single one had an easy lane to go west of us. Now we are COC blocked. LOL IMO- I could see it getting just amped enough to get us on the northern fringe of precip as a best case scenario. A cold 1-2" at best but that's a wag for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Unfortunately, as it appears now the chance is slim. Pretty big stone wall of confluence to the N is going to let this get it's act together easily and come north. The ironic thing is we couldn't buy a "stone wall" with closed ull's in Dec. Every single one had an easy lane to go west of us. Now we are COC blocked. LOL IMO- I could see it getting just amped enough to get us on the northern fringe of precip as a best case scenario. A cold 1-2" at best but that's a wag for sure. yeah, the NAM really has it amped which helps it come north further than the gfs otoh, the folks in the NE forum said that ncep put out a statement re the gfs and that it was continuing to overdue cold in N America, so weenie hopes survive for another day of despair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Historically in DC, the snowiest 30-day period has been January 22nd through February 20th. From 1885 through 2012, 934.6 inches of snow were officially recorded in DC, or an average of 7.3 inches per year, during those 30 days. In recent years, that average has been less, but not drastically so. From 1981 through 2012, 193.0 inches of snow were officially recorded in DC, or an average of 6.0 inches per year, during January 22nd through February 20th. During the last week of that period -- February 14th through February 20th -- the historical DC average snow total has been 1.4 inches, vs 1.3 inches during the past 32 years. The difference between the long-term average and the '81-'12 average may be just 1.3 inches, but that constitutes a nearly 18% decline. That's pretty significant. I am surprised though that the feb 14-20 window doesn't show the same, or worse, decline. Good stats, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Unfortunately, as it appears now the chance is slim. Pretty big stone wall of confluence to the N isn't going to let this get it's act together easily and come north. The ironic thing is we couldn't buy a "stone wall" with closed ull's in Dec. Every single one had an easy lane to go west of us. Now we are COC blocked. LOL IMO- I could see it getting just amped enough to get us on the northern fringe of precip as a best case scenario. A cold 1-2" at best but that's a wag for sure. perhaps one of those rare times where EZF does better than JYO/IAD/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 yeah, the NAM really has it amped which helps it come north further than the gfs otoh, the folks in the NE forum said that ncep put out a statement re the gfs and that it was continuing to overdue cold in N America, so weenie hopes survive for another day of despair I suppose we can keep and eye on the pv to the north. It's elongated and splits a lobe off to the east as the vort passes under us. We're kinda close in time but things can definitely change here. We only asking for some sort of weakness on the eastern side of the pv for the vort to push up against. Not a massive change really. I'm probably simply reaching here but we're not really asking for a "massive" shift @ 500 to the N to get "something" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The difference between the long-term average and the '81-'12 average may be just 1.3 inches, but that constitutes a nearly 18% decline. That's pretty significant. I am surprised though that the feb 14-20 window doesn't show the same, or worse, decline. Good stats, thank you. And from 2/21 through the end of the month, we have had some pretty decent (even a few really cold) snows in the past couple of decades- 1993, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 perhaps one of those rare times where EZF does better than JYO/IAD/BWI Probably but if measurable precip makes it to ezf then things have really changed for the better and we all get something. imo- RIC is actually in a good spot here attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Probably but if measurable precip makes it to ezf then things have really changed for the better and we all get something. imo- RIC is actually in a good spot here attm. maybe for qpf but they'll have bl issues to start I would think heck, if the NAM's crazy solution was closer to being correct I think we have the same issues at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 DT Leaves open possibility of the "DCAlexandria Storm" Thus even though this particular run of the GFS is taking this system off the North Carolina Coast and not doing anything for southern and Central Virginia.... it is entirely possible that the system may appear stronger of the next few model runs and have a bigger precipitation shield... And might even appear to be a bit warmer. This COULD... COULD.... drive snow into places such as Charlottesville and Washington, DC and rain in Richmond and Roanoke and Lynchburg. So as I said the issue is far from decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I know that others will point out that Feb is our best snow month, but I see it being further infringed upon by spring each year. Personally, I hold no hope of anything past Valentine's Day. February is becoming a month that can really go either way, but the first 20 days are still solidly a winter pattern. I do feel the final week of February is becoming increasinly spring like recently and we have pretty much lost March completely. Even up here, I can still get some snow in March but looking at data for coop sites in Carroll County 10" plus events used to be very common in Late February and March from the 1800's until the 1970's but since then have become almost non existent. Our late season snows lately are 1-3" slop even up here. I think if you want a big snow early and mid February might still be your best bet though as the wavelentghs shorten and allow things to dig a little more to our latitude. But if you want sustained snowcover, Feb is defenitely not the right month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 IMO, February is the worst month for it to snow for DC, unless you're a fan of having it all melt within 24 hours. Mid-December through January is ideal. I remember in the 80s when it actually snowed in January.. snow would stick around for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 February is becoming a month that can really go either way, but the first 20 days are still solidly a winter pattern. I do feel the final week of February is becoming increasinly spring like recently and we have pretty much lost March completely. Even up here, I can still get some snow in March but looking at data for coop sites in Carroll County 10" plus events used to be very common in Late February and March from the 1800's until the 1970's but since then have become almost non existent. Our late season snows lately are 1-3" slop even up here. I think if you want a big snow early and mid February might still be your best bet though as the wavelentghs shorten and allow things to dig a little more to our latitude. But if you want sustained snowcover, Feb is defenitely not the right month. us I95'ers just don't get sustained snow south of 40N and the few winters when it happened were the great winters that this one ain't I'll be more than happy if 4-8" top fell and it all melted in 2 days....it's going to be all gone by 3/1 no matter what so no bfd to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I hope the NE'ers enjoy their classic arctic front Miller B at 180 hrs+ \we have a decent shot at flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Thinking small and boring.. our big test is to see if we can get 1" of rain in the next few days. We've still generally done bad with precip of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GFS has a bunch of clippers and quasi clippers after around the 23rd...My guess is we will at least have some things to track in a week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GFS has a bunch of clippers and quasi clippers after around the 23rd...My guess is we will at least have some things to track in a week or so if the cold pattern does set in it will be those types of systems that will give us our first legit snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I am surprised though that the feb 14-20 window doesn't show the same, or worse, decline. Good stats, thank you. Recall that the Mid-Atlantic had the Presidents Day II storm in that window in 2003, dropping more than 16 inches of snow at DCA. Since then, there has been only a total of 2.1 inches in that window at DCA, or 0.2 inches per year. But then, Presidents Day III may be just around the corner . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Probably but if measurable precip makes it to ezf then things have really changed for the better and we all get something. imo- RIC is actually in a good spot here attm. I would prefer to be in CHO...actually I'd prefer to be in Caribou and never have to worry again about my 850 temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Regarding the analogs...the latest SV analogs for the 6z GFS ensembles have pretty cold analogs for the January 24-28 (11-15 day) period.....lots of cold....out of the 50 days (10 analogs - 5 days each), there were 10 below freezing maxes...there was 1 snow event greater than 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Recall that the Mid-Atlantic had the Presidents Day II storm in that window in 2003, dropping more than 16 inches of snow at DCA. Since then, there has been only a total of 2.1 inches in that window at DCA, or 0.2 inches per year. But then, Presidents Day III may be just around the corner . . . I'm pretty confident it'll at least be there at 384 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/312310_470370663010197_53526994_n.jpg Now the CMC gets on board!! DCAlexandria Storm LIVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/312310_470370663010197_53526994_n.jpg Now the CMC gets on board!! DCAlexandria Storm LIVES. CMC + NAM = me... i need another better model to go along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/312310_470370663010197_53526994_n.jpg Now the CMC gets on board!! DCAlexandria Storm LIVES. No more lame names for storms.. all but assures it ain't going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/312310_470370663010197_53526994_n.jpg Now the CMC gets on board!! DCAlexandria Storm LIVES. I didn't know fantasy stuff was allowed in the disco thread..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I didn't know fantasy stuff was allowed in the disco thread..... Its Friday night fantasy... at least its close by before it gets sheared apart or ripped apart and we see nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 there's no cold air left by 120 hrs lol http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.