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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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The whole cooling process YESTERDAY when it showed snow for my area was 100% dry air-- the faster speed has taken that away and it's mostly rain, ending as some mix or sleet. It's not good. 

 

I think it trends another 100 miles north and is a decent event up near DC (maybe burbs, not proper)

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In still marginally interested but we get screwed so many ways its hard to see how we won't here

oh, I think we'll get screwed too

the only way we don't is if it comes another 100 miles north and we get into the heavy precip with crashing temps

but since I have no patience left to wait another 2-3 weeks, I'll put all my eggs in the NAM basket and keep my fingers crossed...and, of course, wear my pajamas inside out all week to and from work while traveling on public transportation

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oh, I think we'll get screwed too

the only way we don't is if it comes another 100 miles north and we get into the heavy precip with crashing temps

but since I have no patience left to wait another 2-3 weeks, I'll put all my eggs in the NAM basket and keep my fingers crossed...and, of course, wear my pajamas inside out all week to and from work while traveling on public transportation

You are pulling out all the stops.

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Everyone is talking about snow, which is appropriate, but this cold snap looks pretty solid.  Both the GFS and Euro have the same timing, first front on Sunday and then another early Tuesday.  If the modeled 850s are close, we should be staying in the 20s at DCA for highs.  Not as cold as Jan '09, but certainly more impressive than we've been used to recently.

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Has something changed at the HPC in the way they arrive at winter weather forecasts? They've been strangely aggressive this season so far. Like, what's up with this really high probability of more than a trace of freezing rain for the area?

prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013011500f048_sm.gif

 

gymengineer,

 

These values are generated based from HPC's "autoensemble", which is a 28 member ensemble that includes operational model runs as well as 21 SREF members...while the "mode" is the actually deterministic snow/ice forecast based from the HPC winter weather forecaster. I have too noticed that at times this autoensemble is a bit robust when it comes to the ice accumulation threat, especially with the lower thresholds.  I think part of that's a function of being correlated with the high resolution SREF ARW and NMMB members.  At any rate, while these autoensemble probabilities are unedited, the HPC winter weather forecaster does have the final call on the 10, 40, and 70% probabilities of the 4, 8, and 12" snowfall amounts as well as 0.25" ice amounts.  A bit confusing probably, but this link will probably provide more clarity:

 

http://origin.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml

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Once we get past this weekend (at the very least) it looks like any precip would be frozen. Models are mostly dry but there is plenty of room for a ns system to get below us. Especially after the gl low gets out of the way and the trough digs deep. 

 

Polar 500 loop on the last 2 runs of the gfs shows a pretty fast flow with some energy coming out of west central canada from time to time. It's going to be tough until the depth and axis of the eastern trough sets up more favorably. Early on the storm track is still to the north but things amplify by hr 150 or so.

 

There is a big closed 500 low in the pac between baja and hawaii. It does drift towards mexico through time. PIeces will eject from this from time to time. Not an ideal placement for getting some sort of split flow phase type of scecnario but it's not a bad thing having that feature in the pac either. 

 

No signs of anything coming through the the sw anytime soon. Not that anything was expected though. The big ridge of HP in the west is quite the wall for any kind of system to hit the CA coast. 

 

IMO- there are only 2 options going forward for now. Having a juicy clipper take a good track once the trough deepens and the axis sets up in a better spot or some sort of phase from ns energy coming out of canada meeting up with a piece that gets ejected from the closed low in the pac. Otherwise we sit and wait until the closed low in the pac traverses mexico and hope we still have an amplified pattern at the time.

 

All in all it looks cold with precip falling as snow if there is any precip in the area. Going to be tough for anything moisture laden to get here for a while. And things will change 100 times between now and next weekend anyway. I took some time this morning too look at the nh circ in the lr and this is what I'm seeing fwiw. 

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