January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[blizzardmeiser]

I'd be somewhat surprised if it isn't cold. Snow I am not sure. It may be that we only get 1-2 moderate events in addition to some cartoppers. I know many people don't like the cold. But we need it and we need it advance and we need it to build up. It is silly to want 60 degrees when it isn't snowing. Transient cold works almost never.

 

I stil think DC can pull in 8-10 inches before the winter is over

[Deck Pic]

If our expectation is for around 8-10" seasonal total, February doesn't have to be awesome. We just need like 2" or so before the end of January, which is not too much to ask for in a below normal week.

Exactly. The key is cold. Especially with a bad storm track being a prevalent one. If we have real cold we can get snow from northern stream systems and clippers where the vort goes to our north and front runners where the primary is to our west. Without a real air mass we need ideal tracks and that is unlikely this winter.

[DCAlexandria]

NAM looks very good developing a strong low in the south.  You weenies have given up far too early, this storm will provide us snow here this weekend.  Since eveyrone else has given up this shall and will forever be the DCAlexandria Storm.

[mitchnick]

NAM looks very good developing a strong low in the south.  You weenies have given up far too early, this storm will provide us snow here this weekend.  Since eveyrone else has given up this shall and will forever be the DCAlexandria Storm.

persistent

will it score the coup? and if it does, will it be cold enough ?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

 

 

meh, link doesn't work

get it from simulated radar and loop it

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam_area_param.php?model=nam&cycle=20130114+12+UTC&area=namer

[yoda]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

[Ian]

If our expectation is for around 8-10" seasonal total, February doesn't have to be awesome. We just need like 2" or so before the end of January, which is not too much to ask for in a below normal week.

no offense but anything that covers my grass is awesome at this point. 

[BristowWx]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

Worried about an apps runner? It seems the confluence would push it east at some point...but when?

[Ian]

I'd be somewhat surprised if it isn't cold. Snow I am not sure. It may be that we only get 1-2 moderate events in addition to some cartoppers. I know many people don't like the cold. But we need it and we need it advance and we need it to build up. It is silly to want 60 degrees when it isn't snowing. Transient cold works almost never.

The cold should help our chances. I guess I am just really skeptical at this pt about snow. I'd probably go closer to KA's 5 than 10 but obviously we can get a lot of help quick with such small numbers.

edit: I should say if we get to Feb without anything to show for it. I have no clue on that.

[mitchnick]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

if you extrapolate the NAM, and I'm a weenie so I can do that sort of thing, it looks like a rain to snow type event assuming the 5H vort moves due east and the storm redevelopes

I can't see it going to our west, but if we're looking for a new way to get screwed out of snow I guess it could always happen

[usedtobe]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

It's actually not that bad looking as long as the vort tracks due east from there. The key to whether it gets that far north is the northern stream which looks stronger on the earlier GFS and Euro model runs which is the reason the vort gets sheared to the south. The GEFS plume diagrams do have a couple of members that show snow in that time frame but a lot that keep the storm to the south. To get snow it would certainly be a thread the needle situation (more so than our usual thread the needle storms). That doesn't mean it can't happen just that the track and will have to be almost perfect.

[mitchnick]

It's actually not that bad looking as long as the vort tracks due east from there. The key to whether it gets that far north is the northern stream which looks stronger on the earlier GFS and Euro model runs which is the reason the vort gets sheared to the south. The GEFS plume diagrams do have a couple of members that show snow in that time frame but a lot that keep the storm to the south. To get snow it would certainly be a thread the needle situation (more so than our usual thread the needle storms). That doesn't mean it can't happen just that the track and will have to be almost perfect.

that's what I was thinking, it better start its due east movement at 84 hrs or we (and any potential snowflakes) would be cooked

Wes, what do you make of the 5H RH going to our north as depicted here? more likely to keep going north?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/12/nam_namer_084_500_rh_ht.gif

[gymengineer]

Exactly. The key is cold. Especially with a bad storm track being a prevalent one. If we have real cold we can get snow from northern stream systems and clippers where the vort goes to our north and front runners where the primary is to our west. Without a real air mass we need ideal tracks and that is unlikely this winter.

Yup, there's no reason to rule out accumulating snow before the end of January. No one's expecting a 6" snow, but we *do* manage a clipper or two almost every season.

[usedtobe]

that's what I was thinking, it better start its due east movement at 84 hrs or we (and any potential snowflakes) would be cooked

Wes, what do you make of the 5H RH going to our north as depicted here? more likely to keep going north?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/12/nam_namer_084_500_rh_ht.gif

Depends on the 500h and 700mb low track, if it were south of us we'd get precip but it is the nam at 84 hrs so the whole set up could be wrong. I'd like to see another model (not the Korean one) jump towards the solution.

[mitchnick]

Depends on the 500h and 700mb low track, if it were south of us we'd get precip but it is the nam at 84 hrs so the whole set up could be wrong. I'd like to see another model (not the Korean one) jump towards the solution.

well, hyundais have become real successful and popular lately ya' know   

 

no, I agree; very little solace in resting hopes with the NAM at any range let alone 60hrs+

[RodneyS]

I know that others will point out that Feb is our best snow month, but I see it being further infringed upon by spring each year.  Personally, I hold no hope of anything past Valentine's Day.

Historically in DC, the snowiest 30-day period has been January 22nd through February 20th. From 1885 through 2012, 934.6 inches of snow were officially recorded in DC, or an average of 7.3 inches per year, during those 30 days. In recent years, that average has been less, but not drastically so. From 1981 through 2012, 193.0 inches of snow were officially recorded in DC, or an average of 6.0 inches per year, during January 22nd through February 20th. During the last week of that period -- February 14th through February 20th -- the historical DC average snow total has been 1.4 inches, vs 1.3 inches during the past 32 years.

[Ian]

Yup, there's no reason to rule out accumulating snow before the end of January. No one's expecting a 6" snow, but we *do* manage a clipper or two almost every season.

To be fair Matt was punting the next two weeks last night. Crappy snow climo is helpful when it comes to redemption or luck. I don't think anyone thought we would have 0.2" to date and be in such a long futility streak. I guess we are due but gotta factor it at least a little.

[Ji]

the NAM will fold soon just like it folded in the past day with the snow it was giving us

[Deck Pic]

To be fair Matt was punting the next two weeks last night. Crappy snow climo is helpful when it comes to redemption or luck. I don't think anyone thought we would have 0.2" to date and be in such a long futility streak. I guess we are due but gotta factor it at least a little.

 

I still am...doesnt mean we cant get some small event or cartopper, but I am focusing on the end of January into February (after the 25th) for consistent air masses in the means and a better storm track...I expect transience until then.....I imagine we will have to step down a bit this winter versus the dramatic flip of 2005 or 2007....maybe we can thread the needle before then or get some small event...a lot easier to back into something without much notice than earlier in winter...To me cold is the 1st step...Not sure when we get real deal cold and once we do there may be a snow lag....I'd be surprised if we get more than a 1-2" event before the 26th if that...hopefully I am wrong

 

I still like feb 5-10 for our 1st decent event...MJO phase 8 and a better pattern...

[gymengineer]

To be fair Matt was punting the next two weeks last night. Crappy snow climo is helpful when it comes to redemption or luck. I don't think anyone thought we would have 0.2" to date and be in such a long futility streak. I guess we are due but gotta factor it at least a little.

I hear you--and maybe we are really in an unprecedented (literally) stretch of crappy winters. There's never been two back-to-back seasons with less than 5" in each.But even if we just get to 5" this season, you will see a grass-covering snow at some point this season... which means, somehow, it will have to snow again.

[Deck Pic]

Yup, there's no reason to rule out accumulating snow before the end of January. No one's expecting a 6" snow, but we *do* manage a clipper or two almost every season.

 

I think we can get 2-3" by the end of January or at least by 1st couple days of February...I expect this will come after the 25th...I'd say 1/26 to 2/3 is crucial and maybe we can back into something before then....otherwise we will need some 3/9/99 or 3/1/09 to get us to >10"

[Ian]

I still am...doesnt mean we cant get some small event or cartopper, but I am focusing on the end of January into February (after the 25th) for consistent air masses in the means and a better storm track...I expect transience until then.....I imagine we will have to step down a bit this winter versus the dramatic flip of 2005 or 2007....maybe we can thread the needle before then or get some small event...a lot easier to back into something without much notice than earlier in winter...To me cold is the 1st step...Not sure when we get real deal cold and once we do there may be a snow lag....I'd be surprised if we get more than a 1-2" event before the 26th if that...hopefully I am wrong

 

I still like feb 5-10 for our 1st decent event...MJO phase 8 and a better pattern...

I generally agree at least about the cold etc. I'd expect us to have some op as it relaxes or reloads at least if not before.

You've done really well.. I just don't really believe in a forecast from 3 mo ago for next mo. I wish I could.. it's nothing against you.. maybe someday.

[clskinsfan]

I think we can get 2-3" by the end of January or at least by 1st couple days of February...I expect this will come after the 25th...I'd say 1/26 to 2/3 is crucial and maybe we can back into something before then....otherwise we will need some 3/9/99 or 3/1/09 to get us to >10"

 

 

That is always a possibility though. One decent coastal and the seasonal average is reached. Maybe thats how it happens this year for guys in the city. A late Feb or early March coastal would go a long way to salvaging this winter for many.

[usedtobe]

I think we can get 2-3" by the end of January or at least by 1st couple days of February...I expect this will come after the 25th...I'd say 1/26 to 2/3 is crucial and maybe we can back into something before then....otherwise we will need some 3/9/99 or 3/1/09 to get us to >10"

The D+11 analogs for the last couple of days have really been spitting out 1994 and are showing a really cold pattern starting sometime in the Jan 23-25 range and then lasting for a bit. That period may offer clipper chances followed by some type of opportunities as the pattern relaxes a bit. Maybe as the MJO gets to phase 8, we can hope for such a progression.

[Ian]

I hear you--and maybe we are really in an unprecedented (literally) stretch of crappy winters. There's never been two back-to-back seasons with less than 5" in each.But even if we just get to 5" this season, you will see a grass-covering snow at some point this season... which means, somehow, it will have to snow again.

I'd mostly hedge my bets, because a good pattern or a better pattern does not necessarily mean much snow. In a bad pattern we don't get snow. In a good pattern, we get snow maybe something like 50-60% of the time, with a shovealable snow maybe 50% of that subset and a big storm maybe 50% that. So, even if things look up they're still stacked kind of unfavorably.. as you know. (note: I just made up percentages here so plz don't hold me strongly to them. )

That said, something in the high end of the 5-10" range is probably still not that difficult for DCA. I'm just beat down at this point.

[Ji]

The D+11 analogs for the last couple of days have really been spitting out 1994 and are showing a really cold pattern starting sometime in the Jan 23-25 range and then lasting for a bit. That period may offer clipper chances followed by some type of opportunities as the pattern relaxes a bit. Maybe as the MJO gets to phase 8, we can hope for such a progression.

1994 wasnt exactly cold and dry..it was pretty stormy so hopefully we get something...ill take even a major ice storm at this point

[Ji]

I'd mostly hedge my bets, because a good pattern or a better pattern does not necessarily mean much snow. In a bad pattern we don't get snow. In a good pattern, we get snow maybe something like 50-60% of the time, with a shovealable snow maybe 50% of that subset and a big storm maybe 50% that. So, even if things look up they're still stacked kind of unfavorably.. as you know. (note: I just made up percentages here so plz don't hold me strongly to them. )

That said, something in the high end of the 5-10" range is probably still not that difficult for DCA. I'm just beat down at this point.

you should move to a place in CT

[mitchnick]

it's incredible how the system for Wednesday keeps creeping north, which plays into my belief that the system at the end of the week will come further north than the GFS/Euro have said

not necessarily along the lines of the NAM, but closer to it....and I still fear if the qpf reaches us we could rain from it

[Ji]

it's incredible how the system for Wednesday keeps creeping north, which plays into my belief that the system at the end of the week will come further north than the GFS/Euro have said

not necessarily along the lines of the NAM, but closer to it....and I still fear if the qpf reaches us we could rain from it

 

what a dissapointment the midweek storm is. I was skepticial but i thought we would have that once chance where things trended better than worse.

 

#notsomuch

[mitchnick]

you should move to a place in CT

if the 12Z GFS is right, now they will turn to rain/mix on Wed

[gymengineer]

I'd mostly hedge my bets, because a good pattern or a better pattern does not necessarily mean much snow. In a bad pattern we don't get snow. In a good pattern, we get snow maybe something like 50-60% of the time, with a shovealable snow maybe 50% of that subset and a big storm maybe 50% that. So, even if things look up they're still stacked kind of unfavorably.. as you know. (note: I just made up percentages here so plz don't hold me strongly to them. )

That said, something in the high end of the 5-10" range is probably still not that difficult for DCA. I'm just beat down at this point.

I think after the terrible winter last year and bad start this year, we're all beat down.

The funny thing is we would all gladly take a 12" season at this point, but when we were in a three-year stretch of 12" seasons (03/04 through 05/06), those felt kind of paltry because they were coming off of 02/03. As a result, people tend to remember those as "famine" years as part of the "feast/famine" narrative when they really weren't.