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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

Midlo Snow Maker

By Midlo Snow Maker,
in Mid Atlantic

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

you've been making the same point for years...we have responded over and over  and you just ignore every response and keep posting the exact same thing....your post asks a question we have answered probably 50 times already...so not sure why you are asking the question again

Ok well instead we should embrace and limit our observations to "winter's over....blowtorch....worst run ever"  Get serious.

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Deck Pic

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Posted
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Ok well instead we should embrace and limit our observations to "winter's over....blowtorch....worst run ever"  Get serious.

 

It isn't your opinion that's the problem...I agree to some extent and you are welcome to it of course...I just don't get what you expect in return when you ask these questions...if you need to vent that is fine...but we have been over this stuff ad nauseum for years...I guess I'll just ignore it?...there doesn't seem to be any other point....you dont seem to be interested in dialogue on this issue and havent for years so I will stop addressing it...every winter I make long posts in response...you ignore them and make the exact same posts over and over...

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MDstorm

MDstorm

Posted
Posted

It helps that I knew this winter would suck back in November when many people had dreams of KU's and arctic blasts

True...you were not very optomistic about this winter early on.  But a shut-out would be tough to take (even with low expectations).  I'm going to ride the MJO train for now.  Models have been pushing the current wave further along.....perhaps phase 8/phase 1 by early Feb.  If the wave gets stuck in 6/7 or decays into COD, then I give up.

 

MDstorm

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

True...you were not very optomistic about this winter early on.  But a shut-out would be tough to take (even with low expectations).  I'm going to ride the MJO train for now.  Models have been pushing the current wave further along.....perhaps phase 8/phase 1 by early Feb.  If the wave gets stuck in 6/7 or decays into COD, then I give up.

 

MDstorm

if you're a man of your word, cya next year

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

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MDstorm

MDstorm

Posted
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I'm aware of the models and have been following them for a while.  A lot of the models have been  pushing things further east as each model run goes by.  We will see how things look in about a week as this wave is moving through phase 7.  NCPE------FTW.

 

MDstorm

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I'm aware of the models and have been following them for a while.  A lot of the models have been  pushing things further east as each model run goes by.  We will see how things look in about a week as this wave is moving through phase 7.  NCPE------FTW.

 

MDstorm

 

I know the MJO has a huge effect on our wx but as a weenie, I just stick with the models since it's more technical than I care to get     lol

so I just go with the models on that link

hope you're right

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

It's Monday so I figured I would extend the outlook. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10.

Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of 1 to -1C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the area that produce slightly above normal conditions or are we talking -10C to -15C so below normal or ...God for bid like 5+C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the area down below this week's level of the avg. -1 to 1C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving. 

Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4. 

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

It's Monday so I figured I would extend the outlook. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10.

Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of 1 to -1C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the area that produce slightly above normal conditions or are we talking -10C to -15C so below normal or ...God for bid like 5+C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the area down below this week's level of the avg. -1 to 1C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving.

Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4.

Thanks. It will be interesting to hear if your analysis of the MJO progression plays out.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Thanks. It will be interesting to hear if your analysis of the MJO progression plays out.

No problem :) I guess I should mention my previous forecast is still the same as before for Jan 15-31 with coldest air arriving Jan 24-27 and then the other dates and events mentioned.

 

Also I will add It looks like the 1st RWT was split by the ridge at 140W and part of the RWT energy went over the top and the other underneath with the part going underneath contributing to the piece of energy that gets strung out over the south on the 14/15th and the other energy comes over the top as a the clipper on the 16/17 that drops in the colder air in for the 17th. Anyways you can view this all if you go back and look at Mike's CCKW analysis map and the N. American sector of the GFS/EC 6hr sfc qpf and 5h vort maps a few days ago and track the RWT and watch qpf pocket/vorts split by Hawaii and do their thing. (vort. shows up better on wxunderground since they use a more sensitive scale than ncep.) The second xt RWT I discussed a couple days ago seems to be moving faster than I anticipated so it appears it may arrive a day and a half earlier, so Jan 20-21 which still fits (actually better fit) into the Jan 20-24 window I laid out. Which sets us up for a different entity to induce the short wave for the Jan 24-27 window.The 2nd RTW right now appears that it's far enough north that it's energy will just ride over the ridge and guessing the energy will become a clipper for the 20/21.  In the image below I circle the southern portion left of the 1st RWT and then the 2nd RWT 

 

 

post-3697-0-17564100-1358169067_thumb.jp

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

 

This is expected. Phase 8 should be in early Feb.

 

No problem :) I guess I should mention my previous forecast is still the same as before for Jan 15-31 with coldest air arriving Jan 24-27 and then the other dates and events mentioned.

 

Also I will add It looks like the 1st RWT was split by the ridge at 140W and part of the RWT energy went over the top and the other underneath with the part going underneath contributing to the piece of energy that gets strung out over the south on the 14/15th and the other energy comes over the top as a the clipper on the 16/17 that drops in the colder air in for the 17th. Anyways you can view this all if you go back and look at Mike's CCKW analysis map and the N. American sector of the GFS/EC 6hr sfc qpf and 5h vort maps a few days ago and track the RWT and watch qpf pocket/vorts split by Hawaii and do their thing. (vort. shows up better on wxunderground since they use a more sensitive scale than ncep.) The second xt RWT I discussed a couple days ago seems to be moving faster than I anticipated so it appears it may arrive a day and a half earlier, so Jan 20-21 which still fits (actually better fit) into the Jan 20-24 window I laid out. Which sets us up for a different entity to induce the short wave for the Jan 24-27 window.The 2nd RTW right now appears that it's far enough north that it's energy will just ride over the ridge and guessing the energy will become a clipper for the 20/21.  In the image below I circle the southern portion left of the 1st RWT and then the 2nd RWT 

 

 

attachicon.gifsun.jpg

 

Thank you for taking the time to post. At least some good information can come out of this train wreck of a thread.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

I'm less surprised by the winter so far than I would be if Feb is awesome. I guess we shall see.

I'd be somewhat surprised if it isn't cold. Snow I am not sure. It may be that we only get 1-2 moderate events in addition to some cartoppers. I know many people don't like the cold. But we need it and we need it advance and we need it to build up. It is silly to want 60 degrees when it isn't snowing. Transient cold works almost never.

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