clueless Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Overperforming with the fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18Z GFS is calling a meeting of the Virginia snow weenies. Quite the nice event. Combined with Euro DT will promptly go apesh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It's kinda interesting. The vort will be washing out but the track at this range.. well, I'd watch it a little at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18Z GFS is calling a meeting of the Virginia snow weenies. Quite the nice event. Combined with Euro DT will promptly go apesh*t. Knowing the way storms can trend north from this far out, I'd be interested too except that every model run has handled the frontal passage differently the last couple of days. Who am I kidding. I'm interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Well clearly the trend is north with this one, so we have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It's kinda interesting. The vort will be washing out but the track at this range.. well, I'd watch it a little at least. So no "meh"... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Euro is slightly enticing for us in the SOUTHERN parts of this region. .75 qpf is like 100 miles away 5 days out-- sounds good to me. I know it is the 18z GFS but would be a pretty good event for us. Would love to see it on the 00z run. Fun to at least see a chance and see colder temps coming back. Although I think as we get closer we will see the extreme cold some are talking about next week modify. But cold at least means if we can get a low that it will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So no "meh"... interesting SFC is marginal I'm sure if that.. We're not necessarily going to see a north trend but it's within the error zone and the vort track is moderately OK for this range. A wild guess would be that type of scenario has more 'hope' we can identify than a front with rain to snow.. heck we can't even usually get more than 0.01" with a cold front. You'd probably still have to forecast meh.. at least after wes stomps on your dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 First one to be interested about this year. The PV needs to be a little weaker and NW or NE of being centered at the longitude of the OV. We want the surface low to move west of here into the OV so we can get wedged (if PV to the NE) or the other option, which is (PV to the NW, preferably) having the low ride up along the coast. If the PV is strong/centered where we don't want it, it's congrats SE. Guidance often overstrengthens it in the winter at this range which makes this storm something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 SFC is marginal I'm sure if that.. We're not necessarily going to see a north trend but it's within the error zone and the vort track is moderately OK for this range. A wild guess would be that type of scenario has more 'hope' we can identify than a front with rain to snow.. heck we can't even usually get more than 0.01" with a cold front. You'd probably still have to forecast meh.. at least after wes stomps on your dreams. Yep, at this point the vort in the SW is something to watch closely over the coming days. Models typically have all kinds of problems with determining strength/location of those SW vorts at this range. Just something to watch closely to identify any trends as we get into the more skilled range of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 GFS is hinting at a possible storm day 8-9. Keep an eye on the Idaho SW day 7. It doesn't look like much but it is in a very convenient spot if it were to be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It's kinda interesting. The vort will be washing out but the track at this range.. well, I'd watch it a little at least.I'd watch it but the decent precip rarely gets north of the confluence at 700 ot event 500h and they both look south to me. Haven't looked at the sfc temps...so far I'm not impressed but we're still a few days away and there isn't much else to hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'd watch it but the decent precip rarely gets north of the confluence at 700 ot event 500h and they both look south to me. Haven't looked at the sfc temps...so far I'm not impressed but we're still a few days away and there isn't much else to hype. we should meme you http://mckaylaisnotimpressed.tumblr.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 we should meme you http://mckaylaisnotimpressed.tumblr.com/ Delete if not ok......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Delete if not ok......... Yeah, I saved that one. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Models went from -30C 850's to -15C, about a 30F swing in 12 hours. How can anthing that is allegedly scientific produce such a swing in such a short period of time?? All these things are is paint every picture possible in the 5+ days, push it back as the time draws near, show it over and over again in the 10-15 day range, push that back, raise temps 30*F, lower them, show the low off SC coast, show the low in the Ohio Valley and come crunch time one of the myriad of portrayls will probably come true, the money for funding keeps rolling in, and 99% of the world never knows what flip flopping, mish mashing weather resources we are stuck with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Anyone who has been on this board or more than a week knows your feelings about models. I, for one, would rather not get about them over and over in the discussion thread. Start a thread of your own to talk about this. Models went from -30C 850's to -15C, about a 30F swing in 12 hours. How can anthing that is allegedly scientific produce such a swing in such a short period of time?? All these things are is paint every picture possible in the 5+ days, push it back as the time draws near, show it over and over again in the 10-15 day range, push that back, raise temps 30*F, lower them, show the low off SC coast, show the low in the Ohio Valley and come crunch time one of the myriad of portrayls will probably come true, the money for funding keeps rolling in, and 99% of the world never knows what flip flopping, mish mashing weather resources we are stuck with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Anyone who has been on this board or more than a week knows your feelings about models. I, for one, would rather not get about them over and over in the discussion thread. Start a thread of your own to talk about this. I am sorry. I did not read the notice where you were made hall monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I am sorry. I did not read the notice where you were made hall monitor. No one made me the hall monitor, I'm just giving voice to many in this mid-long range discussion (see, it's not called "bash the models") thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Delete if not ok......... lol, That's a terrible picture of me. I probably will be impressed by the cold in 11 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Models went from -30C 850's to -15C, about a 30F swing in 12 hours. How can anthing that is allegedly scientific produce such a swing in such a short period of time?? All these things are is paint every picture possible in the 5+ days, push it back as the time draws near, show it over and over again in the 10-15 day range, push that back, raise temps 30*F, lower them, show the low off SC coast, show the low in the Ohio Valley and come crunch time one of the myriad of portrayls will probably come true, the money for funding keeps rolling in, and 99% of the world never knows what flip flopping, mish mashing weather resources we are stuck with. you've been making the same point for years...we have responded over and over and you just ignore every response and keep posting the exact same thing....your post asks a question we have answered probably 50 times already...so not sure why you are asking the question again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 you've been making the same point for years...we have responded over and over and you just ignore every response and keep posting the exact same thing....your post asks a question we have answered probably 50 times already...so not sure why you are asking the question again If you were voted hall monitor, I'd say this would be a d@mn good answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 lol, That's a terrible picture of me. I probably will be impressed by the cold in 11 days or so. Sorry, only one I could find that was the right size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Sref and NAM leaving more energy behind every run. Friday timeframe could get interesting for someone. However It maybe rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Sref and NAM leaving more energy behind every run. Friday timeframe could get interesting for someone. However It maybe rain for us. saw that too anyone know if this 300mp map at 75 hrs foretells something positive wrt that system making it this far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Models went from -30C 850's to -15C, about a 30F swing in 12 hours. How can anthing that is allegedly scientific produce such a swing in such a short period of time?? All these things are is paint every picture possible in the 5+ days, push it back as the time draws near, show it over and over again in the 10-15 day range, push that back, raise temps 30*F, lower them, show the low off SC coast, show the low in the Ohio Valley and come crunch time one of the myriad of portrayls will probably come true, the money for funding keeps rolling in, and 99% of the world never knows what flip flopping, mish mashing weather resources we are stuck with. $10 says this is Howard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 $10 says this is Howard It took you this long to figure it out, I thought you were brighter than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 $10 says this is Howard He had that other fake name back in the day too- Had a TN link as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 saw that too anyone know if this 300mp map at 75 hrs foretells something positive wrt that system making it this far north? Definitely and interesting run for Northern suburbs. That thing is juiced and if extrapolated would nail someone between here and central PA. Confluence should stop it from coming too far north but changing DC over won't be too difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The folks on the SE thread are expecting snow so how are we worried about precip type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.