Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Figures it looks great This is a gametime call as Bob noted. we are still 3 days away...it could be a nonevent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 we are still 3 days away...it could be a nonevent I mean probably will be, suppression will probably be more likely around my way over all rain or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not good, will change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 No talk of hr 144? Closed ull out west passes to our s as a semi-decent vort? IMO- if we are going to get any snow, this is a much better way than pray some narrow frontal wave actually gets over top of a cold boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 No talk of hr 144? Closed ull out west passes to our s as a semi-decent vort? IMO- if we are going to get any snow, this is a much better way than pray some narrow frontal wave actually gets over top of a cold boundary. 18zvort.JPG Look at the boundary layer temps, the low over the lakes screws them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Look at the boundary layer temps, the low over the lakes screws them up. I saw the lakes low Wes. Just not gonna get caught up in it yet. For goodness sakes we need some sort of 5h feature to have a favorable pass. We've already had crappy passes that produced "something". We both know the solution won't go down as shown. Maybe we get lucky...maybe not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wes, it is clear that you have been spot on all winter and unlike some others on FB pages, etc you have hyped nothing. So with that said, the models seem to continue to show below normal cold in the 240 hr range only to see that go away as we get closer. ( at least for this region). Do you believe the pattern is truly going to change and our region will eventually see some of the "vodka cold" that the Great Lakes and NE are more than likely going to see? And do you feel February will offer a better opportunity for decent snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Is the 18z run the old one from yesterday or the correct one from today? Edit: Apparently the beta version was yesterdays 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm starting to get the feeling BWI won't see 7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm starting to get the feeling BWI won't see 7" of snow I am starting to get the feeling it will not snow this winter regardless of the pattern....it just doesn't want to snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Richmond 3 inches of qpf...jyo with .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Richmond 3 inches of qpf...jyo with .20 A lot of posts with no context lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 A lot of posts with no context lately You should know from past years, when he gets frustrated he goes bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 You should know from past years, when he gets frustrated he goes bonkers. Yeah we're loosing it a little on this forum, but still a lot better than SNE posters would be if they were impinging on a year without a 1"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Yeah we're loosing it a little on this forum, but still a lot better than SNE posters would be if they were impinging on a year without a 1"+ event. Has SNE ever gone a year without a 1'' event? I am sure that would be much more impressive than it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Nary a post on the evening model runs.. Telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This seems pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This seems pretty likely. USA_PTYPE_sfc_072.gif lol, real likely given the boundary layer temps are above freezing and only light precip is forecast. It's pretty sad that we're reduced to looking for slivers of snow on ptype progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wes, it is clear that you have been spot on all winter and unlike some others on FB pages, etc you have hyped nothing. So with that said, the models seem to continue to show below normal cold in the 240 hr range only to see that go away as we get closer. ( at least for this region). Do you believe the pattern is truly going to change and our region will eventually see some of the "vodka cold" that the Great Lakes and NE are more than likely going to see? And do you feel February will offer a better opportunity for decent snow? Sorry, I didn't answer earlier. I do think we see colder weather coming up in the next 2 weeks and that we have a week that averages pretty solidly below freezing. Here's today's DPC D+11 superens mean. Lots of ridging in the west and troughing downstream with a ridge poking up into AK to help bring cold air south. However, having the lowest heights over Canada also suggests that clippers will be crossing the lakes to our north so we'll get pretty chilly after some of the stronger clippers but will moderate to near normal ahead of them and probably will have trouble getting a decent a snowstorm until we change the pattern by either relaxing it and getting a southern stream or by digging a clipper to our south. The latter seems more likely but is by no mean guaranteed. The mean pattern centered around the 24th is a chilly but dry one. I composited analog temp anomalies from the 10 dates given on the D+11 several days in advance of the centered mean and several days beyond it and all came out below normal. The temps may not end up as cold as the composite since now days the climate seems a little warmer than in the past but still should be colder than normal. Here's the analog temp anomaly for the centered mean date (somewhere around the 24th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This seems pretty likely. USA_PTYPE_sfc_072.gif Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Gfs brings in more precip again, too warm however. Wonder if temps can get a bit colder, doubtful but who knows. N+W are close on both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sorry, I didn't answer earlier. I do think we see colder weather coming up in the next 2 weeks and that we have a week that averages pretty solidly below freezing. Here's today's DPC D+11 superens mean. anal_jan_13_500hgt_comp_sup814.gif Lots of ridging in the west and troughing downstream with a ridge poking up into AK to help bring cold air south. However, having the lowest heights over Canada also suggests that clippers will be crossing the lakes to our north so we'll get pretty chilly after some of the stronger clippers but will moderate to near normal ahead of them and probably will have trouble getting a decent a snowstorm until we change the pattern by either relaxing it and getting a southern stream or by digging a clipper to our south. The latter seems more likely but is by no mean guaranteed. The mean pattern centered around the 24th is a chilly but dry one. I composited analog temp anomalies from the 10 dates given on the D+11 several days in advance of the centered mean and several days beyond it and all came out below normal. The temps may not end up as cold as the composite since now days the climate seems a little warmer than in the past but still should be colder than normal. Here's the analog temp anomaly for the centered mean date (somewhere around the 24th). Anal_jan_13_temp_2013_D+11.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 most of us said a cold pattern was stlll a few weeks away...no reason to jump the gun...doesnt mean we cant sneak an event....it is mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sorry meant to respond not repost yours Wes...thank you!! If I remember correctly (I was 11) the 1979 Presidents Day weekend storm took place when the pattern relaxed...I think area torched right after...not predicting that Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Gfs brings in more precip again, too warm however. Wonder if temps can get a bit colder, doubtful but who knows. N+W are close on both waves. Pro Tip: Make sure you look at ALL levels.. not just 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Pro Tip: Make sure you look at ALL levels.. not just 850 temps I actually am, but a sfc temp at 34 and sub 0 850's in mid January would be snow, 90% of the time, this event has a warme antecedent airmass, but still and I said close for those NW which is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I actually am, but a sfc temp at 34 and sub 0 850's in mid January would be snow, 90% of the time, this event has a warme antecedent airmass, but still and I said close for those NW which is accurate. Check winds, temps and RH's at 925mb... and don't think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Check winds, temps and RH's at 925mb... and don't think snow. And ho placement, and vort track too, never think snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Euro is slightly enticing for us in the SOUTHERN parts of this region. .75 qpf is like 100 miles away 5 days out-- sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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