January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[aldie 22]

Cold blast just not looking all that impressive to me...also really short lived...eh

[mitchnick]

Cold blast just not looking all that impressive to me...also really short lived...eh

the SE Ridge pig wins until the weekend

[QVectorman]

It's Monday so I figured I would extend the outlook. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10.

Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of 1 to -1C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the area that produce slightly above normal conditions or are we talking -10C to -15C so below normal or ...God for bid like 5+C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the area down below this week's level of the avg. -1 to 1C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving. 

Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4. 

[clueless]

It's Monday so I figured I would extend the outlook. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10.

Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of 1 to -1C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the area that produce slightly above normal conditions or are we talking -10C to -15C so below normal or ...God for bid like 5+C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the area down below this week's level of the avg. -1 to 1C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving.

Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4.

Thanks. It will be interesting to hear if your analysis of the MJO progression plays out.

[QVectorman]

Thanks. It will be interesting to hear if your analysis of the MJO progression plays out.

No problem I guess I should mention my previous forecast is still the same as before for Jan 15-31 with coldest air arriving Jan 24-27 and then the other dates and events mentioned.

 

Also I will add It looks like the 1st RWT was split by the ridge at 140W and part of the RWT energy went over the top and the other underneath with the part going underneath contributing to the piece of energy that gets strung out over the south on the 14/15th and the other energy comes over the top as a the clipper on the 16/17 that drops in the colder air in for the 17th. Anyways you can view this all if you go back and look at Mike's CCKW analysis map and the N. American sector of the GFS/EC 6hr sfc qpf and 5h vort maps a few days ago and track the RWT and watch qpf pocket/vorts split by Hawaii and do their thing. (vort. shows up better on wxunderground since they use a more sensitive scale than ncep.) The second xt RWT I discussed a couple days ago seems to be moving faster than I anticipated so it appears it may arrive a day and a half earlier, so Jan 20-21 which still fits (actually better fit) into the Jan 20-24 window I laid out. Which sets us up for a different entity to induce the short wave for the Jan 24-27 window.The 2nd RTW right now appears that it's far enough north that it's energy will just ride over the ridge and guessing the energy will become a clipper for the 20/21.  In the image below I circle the southern portion left of the 1st RWT and then the 2nd RWT 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

if you're a man of your word, cya next year

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

This is expected. Phase 8 should be in early Feb.

 

No problem I guess I should mention my previous forecast is still the same as before for Jan 15-31 with coldest air arriving Jan 24-27 and then the other dates and events mentioned.

 

Also I will add It looks like the 1st RWT was split by the ridge at 140W and part of the RWT energy went over the top and the other underneath with the part going underneath contributing to the piece of energy that gets strung out over the south on the 14/15th and the other energy comes over the top as a the clipper on the 16/17 that drops in the colder air in for the 17th. Anyways you can view this all if you go back and look at Mike's CCKW analysis map and the N. American sector of the GFS/EC 6hr sfc qpf and 5h vort maps a few days ago and track the RWT and watch qpf pocket/vorts split by Hawaii and do their thing. (vort. shows up better on wxunderground since they use a more sensitive scale than ncep.) The second xt RWT I discussed a couple days ago seems to be moving faster than I anticipated so it appears it may arrive a day and a half earlier, so Jan 20-21 which still fits (actually better fit) into the Jan 20-24 window I laid out. Which sets us up for a different entity to induce the short wave for the Jan 24-27 window.The 2nd RTW right now appears that it's far enough north that it's energy will just ride over the ridge and guessing the energy will become a clipper for the 20/21.  In the image below I circle the southern portion left of the 1st RWT and then the 2nd RWT 

 

 

sun.jpg

 

Thank you for taking the time to post. At least some good information can come out of this train wreck of a thread.

[Ian]

I'm less surprised by the winter so far than I would be if Feb is awesome. I guess we shall see.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm less surprised by the winter so far than I would be if Feb is awesome. I guess we shall see.

I know that others will point out that Feb is our best snow month, but I see it being further infringed upon by spring each year.  Personally, I hold no hope of anything past Valentine's Day.

[gymengineer]

If our expectation is for around 8-10" seasonal total, February doesn't have to be awesome. We just need like 2" or so before the end of January, which is not too much to ask for in a below normal week.

[WVclimo]

Long range models and their ensembles have been consistently flagging an arctic air mass to be in our area Mon-Thu of next week.  This solution has held for 4-5 days now.  I am really looking forward to it.

[blizzardmeiser]

I'd be somewhat surprised if it isn't cold. Snow I am not sure. It may be that we only get 1-2 moderate events in addition to some cartoppers. I know many people don't like the cold. But we need it and we need it advance and we need it to build up. It is silly to want 60 degrees when it isn't snowing. Transient cold works almost never.

 

I stil think DC can pull in 8-10 inches before the winter is over

[DCAlexandria]

NAM looks very good developing a strong low in the south.  You weenies have given up far too early, this storm will provide us snow here this weekend.  Since eveyrone else has given up this shall and will forever be the DCAlexandria Storm.

[mitchnick]

NAM looks very good developing a strong low in the south.  You weenies have given up far too early, this storm will provide us snow here this weekend.  Since eveyrone else has given up this shall and will forever be the DCAlexandria Storm.

persistent

will it score the coup? and if it does, will it be cold enough ?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

 

 

meh, link doesn't work

get it from simulated radar and loop it

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam_area_param.php?model=nam&cycle=20130114+12+UTC&area=namer

[yoda]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

[Ian]

If our expectation is for around 8-10" seasonal total, February doesn't have to be awesome. We just need like 2" or so before the end of January, which is not too much to ask for in a below normal week.

no offense but anything that covers my grass is awesome at this point. 

[BristowWx]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

Worried about an apps runner? It seems the confluence would push it east at some point...but when?

[Ian]

I'd be somewhat surprised if it isn't cold. Snow I am not sure. It may be that we only get 1-2 moderate events in addition to some cartoppers. I know many people don't like the cold. But we need it and we need it advance and we need it to build up. It is silly to want 60 degrees when it isn't snowing. Transient cold works almost never.

The cold should help our chances. I guess I am just really skeptical at this pt about snow. I'd probably go closer to KA's 5 than 10 but obviously we can get a lot of help quick with such small numbers.

edit: I should say if we get to Feb without anything to show for it. I have no clue on that.

[mitchnick]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

if you extrapolate the NAM, and I'm a weenie so I can do that sort of thing, it looks like a rain to snow type event assuming the 5H vort moves due east and the storm redevelopes

I can't see it going to our west, but if we're looking for a new way to get screwed out of snow I guess it could always happen

[usedtobe]

My weenie eyes dont like the look of the h5 map -- and yes I know its the 84 hr NAM

It's actually not that bad looking as long as the vort tracks due east from there. The key to whether it gets that far north is the northern stream which looks stronger on the earlier GFS and Euro model runs which is the reason the vort gets sheared to the south. The GEFS plume diagrams do have a couple of members that show snow in that time frame but a lot that keep the storm to the south. To get snow it would certainly be a thread the needle situation (more so than our usual thread the needle storms). That doesn't mean it can't happen just that the track and will have to be almost perfect.

[mitchnick]

It's actually not that bad looking as long as the vort tracks due east from there. The key to whether it gets that far north is the northern stream which looks stronger on the earlier GFS and Euro model runs which is the reason the vort gets sheared to the south. The GEFS plume diagrams do have a couple of members that show snow in that time frame but a lot that keep the storm to the south. To get snow it would certainly be a thread the needle situation (more so than our usual thread the needle storms). That doesn't mean it can't happen just that the track and will have to be almost perfect.

that's what I was thinking, it better start its due east movement at 84 hrs or we (and any potential snowflakes) would be cooked

Wes, what do you make of the 5H RH going to our north as depicted here? more likely to keep going north?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/12/nam_namer_084_500_rh_ht.gif

[gymengineer]

Exactly. The key is cold. Especially with a bad storm track being a prevalent one. If we have real cold we can get snow from northern stream systems and clippers where the vort goes to our north and front runners where the primary is to our west. Without a real air mass we need ideal tracks and that is unlikely this winter.

Yup, there's no reason to rule out accumulating snow before the end of January. No one's expecting a 6" snow, but we *do* manage a clipper or two almost every season.

[usedtobe]

that's what I was thinking, it better start its due east movement at 84 hrs or we (and any potential snowflakes) would be cooked

Wes, what do you make of the 5H RH going to our north as depicted here? more likely to keep going north?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/12/nam_namer_084_500_rh_ht.gif

Depends on the 500h and 700mb low track, if it were south of us we'd get precip but it is the nam at 84 hrs so the whole set up could be wrong. I'd like to see another model (not the Korean one) jump towards the solution.

[mitchnick]

Depends on the 500h and 700mb low track, if it were south of us we'd get precip but it is the nam at 84 hrs so the whole set up could be wrong. I'd like to see another model (not the Korean one) jump towards the solution.

well, hyundais have become real successful and popular lately ya' know   

 

no, I agree; very little solace in resting hopes with the NAM at any range let alone 60hrs+

[RodneyS]

I know that others will point out that Feb is our best snow month, but I see it being further infringed upon by spring each year.  Personally, I hold no hope of anything past Valentine's Day.

Historically in DC, the snowiest 30-day period has been January 22nd through February 20th. From 1885 through 2012, 934.6 inches of snow were officially recorded in DC, or an average of 7.3 inches per year, during those 30 days. In recent years, that average has been less, but not drastically so. From 1981 through 2012, 193.0 inches of snow were officially recorded in DC, or an average of 6.0 inches per year, during January 22nd through February 20th. During the last week of that period -- February 14th through February 20th -- the historical DC average snow total has been 1.4 inches, vs 1.3 inches during the past 32 years.

[Ian]

Yup, there's no reason to rule out accumulating snow before the end of January. No one's expecting a 6" snow, but we *do* manage a clipper or two almost every season.

To be fair Matt was punting the next two weeks last night. Crappy snow climo is helpful when it comes to redemption or luck. I don't think anyone thought we would have 0.2" to date and be in such a long futility streak. I guess we are due but gotta factor it at least a little.

[Ji]

the NAM will fold soon just like it folded in the past day with the snow it was giving us

[gymengineer]

To be fair Matt was punting the next two weeks last night. Crappy snow climo is helpful when it comes to redemption or luck. I don't think anyone thought we would have 0.2" to date and be in such a long futility streak. I guess we are due but gotta factor it at least a little.

I hear you--and maybe we are really in an unprecedented (literally) stretch of crappy winters. There's never been two back-to-back seasons with less than 5" in each.But even if we just get to 5" this season, you will see a grass-covering snow at some point this season... which means, somehow, it will have to snow again.

[Ian]

I still am...doesnt mean we cant get some small event or cartopper, but I am focusing on the end of January into February (after the 25th) for consistent air masses in the means and a better storm track...I expect transience until then.....I imagine we will have to step down a bit this winter versus the dramatic flip of 2005 or 2007....maybe we can thread the needle before then or get some small event...a lot easier to back into something without much notice than earlier in winter...To me cold is the 1st step...Not sure when we get real deal cold and once we do there may be a snow lag....I'd be surprised if we get more than a 1-2" event before the 26th if that...hopefully I am wrong

 

I still like feb 5-10 for our 1st decent event...MJO phase 8 and a better pattern...

I generally agree at least about the cold etc. I'd expect us to have some op as it relaxes or reloads at least if not before.

You've done really well.. I just don't really believe in a forecast from 3 mo ago for next mo. I wish I could.. it's nothing against you.. maybe someday.

[clskinsfan]

I think we can get 2-3" by the end of January or at least by 1st couple days of February...I expect this will come after the 25th...I'd say 1/26 to 2/3 is crucial and maybe we can back into something before then....otherwise we will need some 3/9/99 or 3/1/09 to get us to >10"

 

 

That is always a possibility though. One decent coastal and the seasonal average is reached. Maybe thats how it happens this year for guys in the city. A late Feb or early March coastal would go a long way to salvaging this winter for many.

[usedtobe]

I think we can get 2-3" by the end of January or at least by 1st couple days of February...I expect this will come after the 25th...I'd say 1/26 to 2/3 is crucial and maybe we can back into something before then....otherwise we will need some 3/9/99 or 3/1/09 to get us to >10"

The D+11 analogs for the last couple of days have really been spitting out 1994 and are showing a really cold pattern starting sometime in the Jan 23-25 range and then lasting for a bit. That period may offer clipper chances followed by some type of opportunities as the pattern relaxes a bit. Maybe as the MJO gets to phase 8, we can hope for such a progression.