mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Ian uses the SV ones, and they have 4-8 solidly for DCA BWI, he was kidding about the trace. Though with thermals I doubt NVA will see anywhere near 4". JYO maybe. he was kidding about snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 4-8".. southern end. It drops really fast tho. Technically as far S as the N tip of DC might be in it. I'd need to blow the map up in photoshop to get more details. thanks to you and DDwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Surprised at the precip totals. I'm in the .5 - .75 range. Do I really have to start taking this seriously? Bob, What else do you need? Borderline temps; and good qpf. Run with it. This is our pattern changer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 thanks to you and DDwxWould make most people happy if snow maps weren't crap. Accum down to about Stafford. N MD special. Map looks a bit overdone based on 850 progression but maybe not. See if soundings ar as good as they were last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 We just need the Euro to cave and we're in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Bob, What else do you need? Borderline temps; and good qpf. Run with it. This is our pattern changer! I'm burnt out a bit. I'm gonna just nowcast this one if necessary. Narrow swath of max precip and a lot that can go wrong thermally isnt worth getting all worked up about until the day before at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 We just need the Euro to cave and we're in business If the Euro goes in on it, I'm in. Looks like more than a T in DC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm burnt out a bit. I'm gonna just nowcast this one if necessary. Narrow swath of max precip and a lot that can go wrong thermally isnt worth getting all worked up about until the day before at the earliest. I'd be happy just to see rain mixed with snow. There's still time for it to trend a couple of degrees colder aloft, especially with the cold air at our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Ian uses the SV ones, and they have 4-8 solidly for DCA BWI, he was kidding about the trace. Though with thermals I doubt NVA will see anywhere near 4". JYO maybe. DC's not gonna see 4 to 8, I think most of us all realize this. But an inch or two is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 DC's not gonna see 4 to 8, I think most of us all realize this. But an inch or two is not out of the question. Naysayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 DC's not gonna see 4 to 8, I think most of us all realize this. But an inch or two is not out of the question. I think n of Knak could see >2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 You know it's a rough year when we are acting like these types of systems produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I just don't see how we're going to see snow with these temps...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Pretty fat storm @252. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Amazing Gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I think it's a false sleet profile down my way-- temps are like 8c around 700mb and -2 c for about 2k feet. Don't think that's going to freeze much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 You know it's a rough year when we are acting like these types of systems produce. Wasn't 2/21/11 supposed to be like this? Cold front sags south followed by rain to sleet to snow within hours... Of course that didn't turn out well for the modeled bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro will show nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wasn't 2/21/11 supposed to be like this? Cold front sags south followed by rain to sleet to snow within hours... Of course that didn't turn out well for the modeled bullseye. Got me.. I mean, I don't absolutely hate the GFS look--it's rather decent tho there's of course plenty of time for DC to get more cold rain and less anything else. But, these things are fraught with problems around here more than some other event types even. The models showing snow are putting it down in a pretty thin stripe and those situations usually end less favorable than we'd hope. Plus we need good timing etc. It's something at least but very tempered expectations necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 At least it won't be in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Pretty cold run post 1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Got me.. I mean, I don't absolutely hate the GFS look--it's rather decent tho there's of course plenty of time for DC to get more cold rain and less anything else. But, these things are fraught with problems around here more than some other event types even. The models showing snow are putting it down in a pretty thin stripe and those situations usually end less favorable than we'd hope. Plus we need good timing etc. It's something at least but very tempered expectations necessary. Yeah, in 2/21/11 that narrow stripe ended up north of us and Northern MD into Southern PA got the snow while we had sleet to light snow ending with flurries and less than half the modeled amount of precip from runs 6 hours prior to the event. People were so optimistic that morning and early afternoon because we were colder earlier than forecasted- It was supposed to be a pretty extreme drop in temps that day. And LWX issued a last minute WSW late afternoon for the immediate N and W suburbs that didn't come close to verifying. It was a terrible event because things looked better and better right up to the onset, and it wasn't until we were into the event that we realized precip was just about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 to calm Zwyts' nerves, the GGEM is basically showing the same thing as the GFS and NAM, but it's hard to tell precisely where the freezing line is located with those lousy maps pretty much, those 3 models are on board for a narrow strip of accum snow in the DCA/BWI area details will have to wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Trouble is if it comes north it probably will be too warm. I'm not yet that excited. I see the pattern getting us back to climo in terms of snow chances but still less than climo for a significant snowstorm at least for this area. I'm not concerned about getting a significant storm....we don't get one most winters and we probably won't get one this winter....my bar is set pretty low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 to calm Zwyts' nerves, the GGEM is basically showing the same thing as the GFS and NAM, but it's hard to tell precisely where the freezing line is located with those lousy maps pretty much, those 3 models are on board for a narrow strip of accum snow in the DCA/BWI area details will have to wait I just like to see something different than what we have been seeing...if it ends up being nothing so be it....my bar is set very low...even in good winters....i know Wes and Randy and some others are chasing the bigger events....the 4"+ events are pretty rare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wasn't 2/21/11 supposed to be like this? Cold front sags south followed by rain to sleet to snow within hours... Of course that didn't turn out well for the modeled bullseye. as you know, our winters are peppered with 0.4" and 0.8" and 1.2", 1.8" etc that people don't always remember...that is how we get to our crappy totals...and they are all different...some are heavy QPF storms with front end or back end...some are frontal...some are cold clippers thats stick everywhere...some are well modeled...most aren't....I like chasing the smaller events...sometimes they overperform or are otherwise impactful or memorable without the impressive totals in the records.....90% of events are not going to be some well modeled swath of metro wide .50" with temps below freezing.....unless your bar is set high there is no reason to punt any potential event in the 1/15-2/20 range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 as you know, our winters are peppered with 0.4" and 0.8" and 1.2", 1.8" etc that people don't always remember...that is how we get to our crappy totals...and they are all different...some are heavy QPF storms with front end or back end...some are frontal...some are cold clippers thats stick everywhere...some are well modeled...most aren't....I like chasing the smaller events...sometimes they overperform or are otherwise impactful or memorable without the impressive totals in the records.....90% of events are not going to be some well modeled swath of metro wide .50" with temps below freezing.....unless your bar is set high there is no reason to punt any potential event in the 1/15-2/20 range... Yeah, and pretty much it has to be wait-and-see right now-No punting, but with the recognition that it's too much to demand exact placement of a narrow band of precip from any model 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z GFS LR shows what can happen when we actually get a good PAC setup. Don't really need a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Thru 78 the EURO is warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 @90 2nd slug of moisture moves in. Temps colder. Unsure of profiles but frozen N&W of DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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