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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Yeah we're loosing it a little on this forum, but still a lot better than SNE posters would be if they were impinging on a year without a 1"+ event.

 

Has SNE ever gone a year without a 1'' event? I am sure that would be much more impressive than it is here. 

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Wes, it is clear that you have been spot on all winter and unlike some others on FB pages, etc you have hyped nothing. So with that said, the models seem to continue to show below normal cold in the 240 hr range only to see that go away as we get closer. ( at least for this region). Do you believe the pattern is truly going to change and our region will eventually see some of the "vodka cold" that the Great Lakes and NE are more than likely going to see? And do you feel February will offer a better opportunity for decent snow?

Sorry, I didn't answer earlier. I do think we see colder weather coming up in the next 2 weeks and that we have a week that averages pretty solidly below freezing. Here's today's DPC D+11 superens mean.

post-70-0-65364500-1358089285_thumb.gif

Lots of ridging in the west and troughing downstream with a ridge poking up into AK to help bring cold air south. However, having the lowest heights over Canada also suggests that clippers will be crossing the lakes to our north so we'll get pretty chilly after some of the stronger clippers but will moderate to near normal ahead of them and probably will have trouble getting a decent a snowstorm until we change the pattern by either relaxing it and getting a southern stream or by digging a clipper to our south. The latter seems more likely but is by no mean guaranteed. The mean pattern centered around the 24th is a chilly but dry one. I composited analog temp anomalies from the 10 dates given on the D+11 several days in advance of the centered mean and several days beyond it and all came out below normal. The temps may not end up as cold as the composite since now days the climate seems a little warmer than in the past but still should be colder than normal. Here's the analog temp anomaly for the centered mean date (somewhere around the 24th).

post-70-0-29544400-1358089719_thumb.gif

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Sorry, I didn't answer earlier. I do think we see colder weather coming up in the next 2 weeks and that we have a week that averages pretty solidly below freezing. Here's today's DPC D+11 superens mean.

anal_jan_13_500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Lots of ridging in the west and troughing downstream with a ridge poking up into AK to help bring cold air south. However, having the lowest heights over Canada also suggests that clippers will be crossing the lakes to our north so we'll get pretty chilly after some of the stronger clippers but will moderate to near normal ahead of them and probably will have trouble getting a decent a snowstorm until we change the pattern by either relaxing it and getting a southern stream or by digging a clipper to our south. The latter seems more likely but is by no mean guaranteed. The mean pattern centered around the 24th is a chilly but dry one. I composited analog temp anomalies from the 10 dates given on the D+11 several days in advance of the centered mean and several days beyond it and all came out below normal. The temps may not end up as cold as the composite since now days the climate seems a little warmer than in the past but still should be colder than normal. Here's the analog temp anomaly for the centered mean date (somewhere around the 24th).

Anal_jan_13_temp_2013_D+11.gif

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18Z GFS is calling a meeting of the Virginia snow weenies.  Quite the nice event.  Combined with Euro DT will promptly go apesh*t.

Knowing the way storms can trend north from this far out, I'd be interested too except that every model run has handled the frontal passage differently the last couple of days.

 

Who am I kidding.  I'm interested.

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Euro is slightly enticing for us in the SOUTHERN parts of this region. .75 qpf is like 100 miles away 5 days out-- sounds good to me. 

 

I know it is the 18z GFS but would be a pretty good event for us.  Would love to see it on the 00z run.  Fun to at least see a chance and see colder temps coming back.  Although I think as we get closer we will see the extreme cold some are talking about next week modify.  But cold at least means if we can get a low that it will be snow. 

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So no "meh"... interesting ;)

SFC is marginal I'm sure if that.. We're not necessarily going to see a north trend but it's within the error zone and the vort track is moderately OK for this range. A wild guess would be that type of scenario has more 'hope' we can identify than a front with rain to snow.. heck we can't even usually get more than 0.01" with a cold front. :P

You'd probably still have to forecast meh.. at least after wes stomps on your dreams.

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First one to be interested about this year.  The PV needs to be a little weaker and NW or NE of being centered at the longitude of the OV. 

 

We want the surface low to move west of here into the OV so we can get wedged (if PV to the NE) or the other option, which is (PV to the NW, preferably) having the low ride up along the coast.  If the PV is strong/centered where we don't want it, it's congrats SE.

 

Guidance often overstrengthens it in the winter at this range which makes this storm something to watch.

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SFC is marginal I'm sure if that.. We're not necessarily going to see a north trend but it's within the error zone and the vort track is moderately OK for this range. A wild guess would be that type of scenario has more 'hope' we can identify than a front with rain to snow.. heck we can't even usually get more than 0.01" with a cold front. :P

You'd probably still have to forecast meh.. at least after wes stomps on your dreams.

Yep, at this point the vort in the SW is something to watch closely over the coming days.  Models typically have all kinds of problems with determining strength/location of those SW vorts at this range.  Just something to watch closely to identify any trends as we get into the more skilled range of the models.

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It's kinda interesting. The vort will be washing out but the track at this range.. well, I'd watch it a little at least.

I'd watch it but the decent precip rarely gets north of the confluence at 700 ot event 500h and they both look south to me. Haven't looked at the sfc temps...so far I'm not impressed but we're still a few days away and there isn't much else to hype.
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