Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Interesting analogs showing up on CPC site. Early Jan 1977, and 1985. Also, late Dec 1995. Can you expand on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 It is depressing. Being the snow nuts we are we wait all summer/spring/fall for winter. December is done and the first 2 weeks of January are looking bad on the models. That leaves practically a little over a month for anything. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Can you expand on that? Well, I didn't live here for any of them, but 77 is a notoriously cold Jan into part of Feb, 1985 has one of the greatest outbreaks of arctic air ever, and Jan of 1996 saw a huge east coast blizzard and an arctic out break near the end of the month. Someone with more local knowledge can give the local details of those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Interesting analogs showing up on CPC site. Early Jan 1977, and 1985. Also, late Dec 1995. Where do you see the analogs on their site?....You are referring to the Climate Prediction Center, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Where do you see the analogs on their site?....You are referring to the Climate Prediction Center, aren't you? In the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 In the discussion. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 fwiw, today's Euro weeklies that come out every Monday pretty much suck for the entire month just our luck....the CFS2 finally predicts a BN winter month, 2/10 was the last one I think, and if fails miserably obviously the whole month is in front of us but the medium and longer range tools don't look so hot, or maybe they do and that's the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 fwiw, today's Euro weeklies that come out every Monday pretty much suck for the entire month just our luck....the CFS2 finally predicts a BN winter month, 2/10 was the last one I think, and if fails miserably obviously the whole month is in front of us but the medium and longer range tools don't look so hot, or maybe they do and that's the problem The fact that the long range tools don't look good may be a good thing. I've seen nothing to make me think they're reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 fwiw, today's Euro weeklies that come out every Monday pretty much suck for the entire month just our luck....the CFS2 finally predicts a BN winter month, 2/10 was the last one I think, and if fails miserably obviously the whole month is in front of us but the medium and longer range tools don't look so hot, or maybe they do and that's the problem cfs2 is brutally cold week 3_4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 cfs2 is brutally cold week 3_4 that's not brutal http://origin.cpc.nc...1230.NAsfcT.gif interesting GFS run, however http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif looks to be attempting to suck in a storm on the coast, but I don't think it makes the connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 hard to believe that this 500mb map has essentially a zero reflection on the surface http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Happy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 that's not brutal http://origin.cpc.nc...1230.NAsfcT.gif interesting GFS run, however http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif looks to be attempting to suck in a storm on the coast, but I don't think it makes the connection Sorry week 4 brutal and 00z Gfs run is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Models figured once PNA moved toward neutral and MJO got supposedly favorable that ti was a slam dunk for cold and stormy. Figured wrong. There really is No magic ingredient. Too much reliance on EPO, PNA, AO, NAO, gets you bad results like these. Historical performance analogs will always trump but most people just don't have a "library" of that so they model hug and index worship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Models figured once PNA moved toward neutral and MJO got supposedly favorable that ti was a slam dunk for cold and stormy. Figured wrong. There really is No magic ingredient. Too much reliance on EPO, PNA, AO, NAO, gets you bad results like these. Historical performance analogs will always trump but most people just don't have a "library" of that so they model hug and index worship. Most of the skilled forecasters were skeptical all along-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Has anyone seen the watch/warning map so empty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Has anyone seen the watch/warning map so empty? Yeah last year and the year before too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 here it comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The D+11 superens mean pattern continues to look warm with low heights extending across much of Canada southward into the U.S and above normal heights for us. That usually means our temps will average above normal for that 5 day period. That product has had a warm look for the past seveal days. The D+10 Euro also has a warm look so to me the 1st half of January looks to have below normal snow chances. The pattern is basically not good and suggests lows will track to our north. This year the dominant pattern over the U.S. has looked nina-like even though we are not in a nina. I'll be doing an article for CWg tomorrow so I'll update my thoughts and actually show some figures. Today, I'm being lazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The D+11 superens mean pattern continues to look warm with low heights extending across much of Canada southward into the U.S and above normal heights for us. That usually means our temps will average above normal for that 5 day period. That product has had a warm look for the past seveal days. The D+10 Euro also has a warm look so to me the 1st half of January looks to have below normal snow chances. The pattern is basically not good and suggests lows will track to our north. This year the dominant pattern over the U.S. has looked nina-like even though we are not in a nina. I'll be doing an article for CWg tomorrow so I'll update my thoughts and actually show some figures. Today, I'm being lazy. how about you take some time off and not post again until the pattern is better. This is just depressing. Go fishing or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 and oh....happy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Models figured once PNA moved toward neutral and MJO got supposedly favorable that ti was a slam dunk for cold and stormy. Figured wrong. There really is No magic ingredient. Too much reliance on EPO, PNA, AO, NAO, gets you bad results like these. Historical performance analogs will always trump but most people just don't have a "library" of that so they model hug and index worship. All ot that seems to mean nothing, perhaps we are just in a warmer climate now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The 12Z GFS may be the single ugliest model run I have ever seen if you like winter weather. There is one storm in basically the entire conus during the run and it is a lake cutter. I dont ever recall seeing a drier run of any model for a 10 period over the entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 how about you take some time off and not post again until the pattern is better. This is just depressing. Go fishing or something I went fishing and look what I caught sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The 12Z GFS may be the single ugliest model run I have ever seen if you like winter weather. There is one storm in basically the entire conus during the run and it is a lake cutter. I dont ever recall seeing a drier run of any model for a 10 period over the entire country. 120hr total precip starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 120hr total precip starting tomorrow. don't worry, CFS2 says it gets better in FEB.....ahhh, no http://www.cpc.ncep....0101.201302.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 don't worry, CFS2 says it gets better in FEB.....ahhh, nohttp://www.cpc.ncep....0101.201302.gif I have some good analysis of the CFS2 Mitch. IT SUCKS AT LONG LEADS. Man that felt good. Back to radio silence for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 I have some good analysis of the CFS2 Mitch. IT SUCKS AT LONG LEADS. Man that felt good. Back to radio silence for me. The Euro weaklies are a disaster for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 don't worry, CFS2 says it gets better in FEB.....ahhh, nohttp://www.cpc.ncep....0101.201302.gif Good to see the drought starting early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 don't worry, CFS2 says it gets better in FEB.....ahhh, nohttp://www.cpc.ncep....0101.201302.gif I'm still waiting for its above-normal precip and below-normal temps for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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