TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro is awfully unimpressive with the cold through day 7 I day we're between -10C and -15C and then poof....it's pulling out Probably will help with storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Probably will help with storm track. not when we're at -3C or so on day 7 with this surface map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest just gimme some snow this week and I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 no day 9 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 no day 9 storm? since it's not there, and it's been there for the last few days, it must mean there will be one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 actually, day 10 has an incredible +PNA and something coming down on the west side of the PV other than that, enjoy cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 one of JB's old signals for a trough in the east is a trough off Japan means a trough in the east in 7 days (I think it's 7!) nice day 10 trough on the Euro over Japan so if the pattern does relax a bit for us after day 10, it will probably come back if that signal holds true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Weenie love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Weenie love Holy Crap!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Holy Crap!!! Lol stay calm, that's usually overdone, but I'm liking where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Lol stay calm, that's usually overdone, but I'm liking where we stand. BWI ain't DCA, so where you stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 BWI ain't DCA, so where you stand My apologies, not bad for DCA either I hear. Couple inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Lol stay calm, that's usually overdone, but I'm liking where we stand. stand? I'm still picking myself up off the floor it isn't going to happen like that but if half that fell, I'd be ecstatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 stand? I'm still picking myself up off the floor it isn't going to happen like that but if half that fell, I'd be ecstatic Heck yea man, 2-3" would be sick, any more, get outta town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 no day 9 storm? Of course not, the weenie proverb says "Winter is always 10 days away!" so all snowstorms should disappear day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 unfortunately, the reality is that the GFS at Day 3+ has looked sooo good over the years then ultimately shiat the bed so at this point, it's nice to dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Might as well post for IAD and DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 NAM blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 NAM blows Holds the precip back consolidated more into the one wave, it was wrong before when it was bringing in precip 15hrs before the other models. It's current solution is more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 this is the 1pm sounding for DC Proper from the 12z GFS...has no support from the 12z Euro or 18z Nam GFS_3_2013011212_F78_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Figures it looks great This is a gametime call as Bob noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 we are still 3 days away...it could be a nonevent I mean probably will be, suppression will probably be more likely around my way over all rain or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not good, will change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 No talk of hr 144? Closed ull out west passes to our s as a semi-decent vort? IMO- if we are going to get any snow, this is a much better way than pray some narrow frontal wave actually gets over top of a cold boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 No talk of hr 144? Closed ull out west passes to our s as a semi-decent vort? IMO- if we are going to get any snow, this is a much better way than pray some narrow frontal wave actually gets over top of a cold boundary. 18zvort.JPG Look at the boundary layer temps, the low over the lakes screws them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Look at the boundary layer temps, the low over the lakes screws them up. I saw the lakes low Wes. Just not gonna get caught up in it yet. For goodness sakes we need some sort of 5h feature to have a favorable pass. We've already had crappy passes that produced "something". We both know the solution won't go down as shown. Maybe we get lucky...maybe not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wes, it is clear that you have been spot on all winter and unlike some others on FB pages, etc you have hyped nothing. So with that said, the models seem to continue to show below normal cold in the 240 hr range only to see that go away as we get closer. ( at least for this region). Do you believe the pattern is truly going to change and our region will eventually see some of the "vodka cold" that the Great Lakes and NE are more than likely going to see? And do you feel February will offer a better opportunity for decent snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Is the 18z run the old one from yesterday or the correct one from today? Edit: Apparently the beta version was yesterdays 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm starting to get the feeling BWI won't see 7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm starting to get the feeling BWI won't see 7" of snow I am starting to get the feeling it will not snow this winter regardless of the pattern....it just doesn't want to snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Richmond 3 inches of qpf...jyo with .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Richmond 3 inches of qpf...jyo with .20 A lot of posts with no context lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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