Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 hmmm, I'm still waiting on the Accuwx mos it gets light precip to DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The first wave is where we are watching now, but the second is close according to the euro, we really gotta keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's wrong and outlier maybe...it isn't inconceivable that we get a FROPA without much fanfare like we do 99% of the time...it probably makes more sense than a rapid temp drop and heavy snow hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 maybe...it isn't inconceivable that we get a FROPA without much fanfare like we do 99% of the time...it probably makes more sense than a rapid temp drop and heavy snow hours later Rather than speculate on it I'd rather just check out the next few models for the fropa and the energy up the coast behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 maybe...it isn't inconceivable that we get a FROPA without much fanfare like we do 99% of the time...it probably makes more sense than a rapid temp drop and heavy snow hours later see, all you needed was a little more sugar in our tea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The first wave is where we are watching now, but the second is close according to the euro, we really gotta keep an eye on it. all of us are going to watch and dissect every model run of every good and bad model for the next 9 weeks....you are telling crack addicts to make sure they remember to smoke crack.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Rather than speculate on it I'd rather just check out the next few models for the fropa and the energy up the coast behind it. i'd rather discuss the probability that nothing good happens..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro ends up. Giving DC .02 of snow after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 i'd rather discuss the probability that nothing good happens..... My fault, its late, I'm captain obvious I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 cold is no big deal on this run we'll see if it allows the GOM system come further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 cold is no big deal on this run we'll see if it allows the GOM system come further north The cold periods modeled by the GFS and Euro are completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro in mid January has -5 850 temps but surface temp mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Was just about to mock the Nogaps, but the Euro looks similar @ hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Was just about to mock the Nogaps, but the Euro looks similar @ hr 144. What's it show at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 What's it show at 144 Mostly Clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 What's it show at 144 What's it show at 144 Closed H5 over Dallas. It will probably still get crushed. But it is tugging moisture north into MS and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro looks really warm through 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The cold periods modeled by the GFS and Euro are completely different. no, the euro is jumping around all over the place this was 12Z at Day 7 and this run looks far from that (and we're 12 hours later) http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013011112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 no, the euro is jumping around all over the place this was 12Z at Day 7 and this run looks far from that http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013011112!!/ Thankfully through this I can hold out Tuesday hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro looks really warm through 168 it is rain, but ut has a nice coastal at 180 hours....moisture laden...that skims us....I like seeing that....are we supposed to be in some awesome pattern in 7 days?....don't we have to step down and up and down for a bit?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro also backed off on dropping the cold air south. Only slightly below normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 it is rain, but ut has a nice coastal at 180 hours....moisture laden...that skims us....I like seeing that....are we supposed to be in some awesome pattern in 7 days?....don't we have to step down and up and down for a bit?... No it appears to be a total flip. No storm at 180 was ever suppose to give us rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 No it appears to be a total flip. No storm at 180 was ever suppose to give us rain the models arent going to get the pattern right...this is the heart of winter...anything can happen...1/15-2/20 is our wheelhouse...I'm not worried about day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The GFS stuff would have my backyard with a high of 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 total arctic plunge at day 10 with a vortex over the lakes and a 1052 high over the plains...afternoon max around -10 at MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The GFS stuff would have my backyard with a high of 15. we dont know the timing or the severity but at least there seems to be some evidence accumulating that real cold is coming...the euro has a 7pm temp of around 3F at ORD when the run ends...that is the kind of cold that has you and me giddy if it can get down here...we'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 we dont know the timing or the severity but at least there seems to be some evidence accumulating that real cold is coming...the euro has a 7pm temp of around 3F at ORD when the run ends...that is the kind of cold that has you and me giddy if it can get down here...we'll see what happens And maybe some storm potential around the 22nd. GFS and Euro both have a beautiful ridge out west teaming up with a nice block. Could be a nice window to get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sorry just have to share even though it's from pay site since they adjust their contours and post the min. temp...this might be once in life time run to see a forecast run with -40.2C 850's just north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 When's the last time we got good snow from a frontal wave? Dec 00 or 01? I can recall one that came in and dropped about 3". It stuck around for a while too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Everyone root for the Packers and Seahawks today... If they win the NFC champ game will be in Green Bay on the 23rd. IF the polar vortex drops like modeled it will rival the Frozen Tundra game of the 70's with wind chills in the -40 to -60 range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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