Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'd been watching this for a while as many of gfs ensemble members had this scenario while the op was amped and warm but hard to believe it would happen 2 days after hiiting 70 this warm shot has been cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Fog is gonna keep high temps down tomorrow I bet...Sunday may be the only silly warm day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Look at this sounding for BWI at the 75 hr GFS that's a ton of dry air that causes the evap. cooling never seen that before 1017. 73. 2.8 -1.2 344.1 3.3 1000. 213. 2.3 -3.7 348.8 6.3 975. 418. 1.1 -6.4 351.2 8.4 950. 626. -0.1 -9.6 347.7 8.9 925. 839. -0.3 -15.4 336.4 8.2 900. 1058. 0.6 -23.0 319.9 8.0 850. 1517. 1.6 -35.7 283.3 9.2 800. 2006. 2.2 -31.3 259.2 13.1 750. 2526. 1.7 -27.7 252.6 18.3 700. 3079. -0.7 -25.1 258.1 22.5 650. 3668. -2.8 -13.6 254.8 30.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'd been watching this for a while as many of gfs ensemble members had this scenario while the op was amped and warm but hard to believe it would happen 2 days after hiiting 70the euro control had this at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Look at this sounding for BWI at the 75 hr GFS that's a ton of dry air that causes the evap. cooling never seen that before 1017. 73. 2.8 -1.2 344.1 3.3 1000. 213. 2.3 -3.7 348.8 6.3 975. 418. 1.1 -6.4 351.2 8.4 950. 626. -0.1 -9.6 347.7 8.9 925. 839. -0.3 -15.4 336.4 8.2 900. 1058. 0.6 -23.0 319.9 8.0 850. 1517. 1.6 -35.7 283.3 9.2 800. 2006. 2.2 -31.3 259.2 13.1 750. 2526. 1.7 -27.7 252.6 18.3 700. 3079. -0.7 -25.1 258.1 22.5 650. 3668. -2.8 -13.6 254.8 30.6 it is probably wrong, but it is mid January and we dont have Hurricane Gilbert barreling on a track over Columbus Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not saying it will mean much that the warmth may underperform, but it would help with road accums if we got greedy. According to matt though, we wouldn't have too much trouble with our SN+. And mitch, that's pretty cool, and actually believable in the scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not saying it will mean much that the warmth may underperform, but it would help with road accums if we got greedy. According to matt though, we wouldn't have too much trouble with our SN+. And mitch, that's pretty cool, and actually believable in the scheme of things. you're such a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not saying it will mean much that the warmth may underperform, but it would help with road accums if we got greedy. According to matt though, we wouldn't have too much trouble with our SN+. And mitch, that's pretty cool, and actually believable in the scheme of things. I'm not saying any of us will see snow at all...this run just shows how we could do it...it could be completely wacko...Dr No will probably bitchslap it in 30 minites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm not saying any of us will see snow at all...this run just shows how we could do it...it could be completely wacko...Dr No will probably bitchslap it in 30 minites Oh I know, trust me. GFS is a nice run and all, but I know where you stand. And Ian, funny thing is, my maps usually verify awfully well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS soundings have BWI as all snow with temps 32.5-33.5 during the event this is wacky, I've never seen this before a surface that you can't roast hot dogs during falling precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm not saying any of us will see snow at all...this run just shows how we could do it...it could be completely wacko...Dr No will probably bitchslap it in 30 minites Dr. No was real close to doing this last night and 12z today, at least at BWI the tip off is that all the models keep it suppressed i.e. south of NE, and started showing that almost 48 hrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Dr. No was real close to doing this last night and 12z today, at least at BWI the tip off is that all the models keep it suppressed i.e. south of NE, and started showing that almost 48 hrs ago Seeing a nice (nice meaning <78 degrees) boundary layer relatively speaking, is something we are not used to for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm going all in. This is our 2 year streak breaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 one other things the GFS scraps DCA/BWI on south again at 108 hrs and it's cold enough for snow then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 one other things the GFS scraps DCA/BWI on south again at 108 hrs and it's cold enough for snow then too It isnt mine and your "favorite" setup which is nice.....not our usual 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east I can tell the past year has really worn on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's shocking to see snow on the models in January where the average high is now 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east if it snows, I don't care what's on the fookin' weather maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Jma had snow past several days in this timeframe but I couldn't bear to mention it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Anyone think we can ever go below zero again? I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's shocking to see snow on the models in January where the average high is now 59 just be quiet and enjoy it it'll be gone in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 just be quiet and enjoy it it'll be gone in 6 hrs Stop that, and if you're right approximately 4 hours 4 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Anyone think we can ever go below zero again? I'm skeptical. you'll need to change your screen name then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 if it snows, I don't care what's on the fookin' weather maps! I do.....the setup might not make any sense but it is different from the last 100 events we have had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 just be quiet and enjoy it it'll be gone in 6 hrs You mean in 6 minutes when the euro roles out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Anyone think we can ever go below zero again? I'm skeptical.probably.. in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I do.....the setup might not make any sense but it is different from the last 100 events we have had If DCA breaks their 2" streak you have to accept my facebook request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If DCA breaks their 2" streak you have to accept my facebook request. don't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If DCA breaks their 2" streak you have to accept my facebook request. I'm not generally FB friends with people I am not friends with IRL or I socialize with on occasion, etc....nothing personal...but when someone friend requests me and I don't recognze the name, it is a no go unless they are an attractive woman.... but I should probably agree to it....DCA will probably get nothing or just plain rain Obligatory weather content - It is going to get colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 don't do it Pretty easy bet to take on his end considering the low probability of 2" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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