Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm not even sure how the snow map is showing snow except for the far n&w edge of the precip. Thicknesses. 850's and surface all say rain even in hgr. If I'm missing something let me know but I don't think it's even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 not necessary if we can get a hair more suppression Well considering what would happen in a nina year since this one at times has acted like it, one would bet against the trend. However, the NAM is something to consider, and this brings the snow possibilities even with the earlier precip. This storm has trended southward a bit from the last time you asked for suppression, so I'd give it a chance. Looks at this point like HGR is the bullseye again, but the cities could get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm not even sure how the snow map is showing snow except for the far n&w edge of the precip. Thicknesses. 850's and surface all say rain even in hgr. If I'm missing something let me know but I don't think it's even close. Allow me bob, the surface temps at HGR on the NAM this run are a bit colder than pvs runs but still 33-35. We know we can see snow with that, and the 0c line is SE of there so Ji will tell you thats the only thing that matters in January. The 1300 line (1000-500) is also around BWI so there is a chance. I mean in the cities its a pipe dream, but makes sense to me. Light NW winds don't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Even surface flow is east and se. I'm not seeing this one at all. I guess it's possible if the cold airmass is deeper and moves in quicker but thats a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm not even sure how the snow map is showing snow except for the far n&w edge of the precip. Thicknesses. 850's and surface all say rain even in hgr. If I'm missing something let me know but I don't think it's even close. the magic of the internet and wx models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Bob, fwiw, the Accuwx NAM snowfall maps show the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Bob, fwiw, the Accuwx NAM snowfall maps show the same thing Most maps even the IWM and the SV show snow for HGR and friends. SV has the measurable snow down to W bal, so not too bad. Around 2.5 N of HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Bob, fwiw, the Accuwx NAM snowfall maps show the same thing I took a very close look and I guess it's mathematically possible but this setup is pretty far from ideal. Heck, I've probably had over 10 feet of modeled snow in the last 23 months but my shovel hasn't left the garage. Now THAT is magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I took a very close look and I guess it's mathematically possible but this setup is pretty far from ideal. Heck, I've probably had over 10 feet of modeled snow in the last 23 months but my shovel hasn't left the garage. Now THAT is magic. lol we never have ideal setups for snow it's always pure luck for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 hmm, GFS is looking tasty at 81 hrs too we'll see in a moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 4-8" on tuesday?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 lol we never have ideal setups for snow it's always pure luck for us Ha! I should have been more specific. Even with my best weenie Rx glasses on and rose colored lenses and squinting it still doesn't look ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 hmm, GFS is looking tasty at 81 hrs too we'll see in a moment Better than 18z, gets some precip up to us with 0c line s of cities, sfc a bit warm but hey improvements. Definitely a bit better precip placement, orientation of it a bit different than the nam. Nam sniffing something? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Better than 18z, gets some precip up to us with 0c line s of cities, sfc a bit warm but hey improvements. Definitely a bit better precip placement, orientation of it a bit different than the nam. Nam sniffing something? Who knows. there have been enough changes to at least give us something to follow there should be another wave forming after the one at 85-95 hrs; maybe that will be even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Lol Matt SV snow map has small stripe of 4-8 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 moisture is just hanging around to our south at 99 hrs waiting for that trough I hope! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_099_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Mitch, 105/108 on SV actually look GGEMish to me, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Mitch, 105/108 on SV actually look GGEMish to me, interesting. again, it's not ideal as Bob mentioned, but the models are sniffing out something that could, if we get uncharacteristically lucky, give us some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 again, it's not ideal as Bob mentioned, but the models are sniffing out something that could, if we get uncharacteristically lucky, give us some snow Yes I like what its showing on the models for the 81-96 timeframe, and am interested by the 108 time, as the GFS came about 100 miles north from 18z on that and I'm not calling it a trend to the ggem, but it looks more like it. The temp profiles for that one would be much more optimal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I've seen the GGEM mentioned more than it should be...which is never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I've seen the GGEM mentioned more than it should be...which is never Hey, sit back and enjoy your 4-8 GFS inches. You know Ji is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 When's the last time we got good snow from a frontal wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 When's the last time we got good snow? FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I've seen the GGEM mentioned more than it should be...which is never Every dog has his day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 FYP Bravo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 When's the last time we got good snow from a frontal wave? January 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 January 2012? That's true isn't it. The only "decent" snow we had last year (1.8" at my place) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 January 2012?20-21? i was being serious.. i don't recall how little events come together after the fact. sorta looks like it was a waa 'thump' where this is more post frontal? i dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Thank God Wes is still tired from golf yesterday or he'd be in here to tell us to fugettaboutit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 When's the last time we got good snow from a frontal wave? Frederick got a couple 2" events from frontal waves in 2010-2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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