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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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I think for the usual spots a real thump...looks wintry mixy for me...I am not taking it too literally but this is not some anemic easterly winder...so i am certainly going to pay attention...It is mid January...sh-it like this can happen...someone can get a couple/few quick inches from a random event

Prep the sandbags?

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I think for the usual spots a real thump...looks wintry mixy for me...I am not taking it too literally but this is not some anemic easterly winder...so i am certainly going to pay attention...It is mid January...sh-it like this can happen...someone can get a couple/few quick inches from a random event

Yes, its definitely easier for us in our peak climo so it bears watching. You'd even get thumped, but BWI over to Kenny look good via this run in particular. It is pretty QPF loaded relatively speaking, so not a sleeper by any means. 

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I think for the usual spots a real thump...looks wintry mixy for me...I am not taking it too literally but this is not some anemic easterly winder...so i am certainly going to pay attention...It is mid January...sh-it like this can happen...someone can get a couple/few quick inches from a random event

Except this doesn't look like a very quick event

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Look at this sounding for BWI at the 75 hr GFS

that's a ton of dry air that causes the evap. cooling

never seen that before

1017.    73.    2.8   -1.2   344.1     3.3 1000.   213.    2.3   -3.7   348.8     6.3  975.   418.    1.1   -6.4   351.2     8.4  950.   626.   -0.1   -9.6   347.7     8.9  925.   839.   -0.3  -15.4   336.4     8.2  900.  1058.    0.6  -23.0   319.9     8.0  850.  1517.    1.6  -35.7   283.3     9.2  800.  2006.    2.2  -31.3   259.2    13.1  750.  2526.    1.7  -27.7   252.6    18.3  700.  3079.   -0.7  -25.1   258.1    22.5  650.  3668.   -2.8  -13.6   254.8    30.6
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I'd been watching this for a while as many of gfs ensemble members had this scenario while the op was amped and warm but hard to believe it would happen 2 days after hiiting 70

the euro control had this at 240
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Not saying it will mean much that the warmth may underperform, but it would help with road accums if we got greedy. According to matt though, we wouldn't have too much trouble with our SN+. 

 

And mitch, that's pretty cool, and actually believable in the scheme of things. 

you're such a weenie
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I'm not saying any of us will see snow at all...this run just shows how we could do it...it could be completely wacko...Dr No will probably bitchslap it in 30 minites

Dr. No was real close to doing this last night and 12z today, at least at BWI

the tip off is that all the models keep it suppressed i.e. south of NE, and started showing that almost 48 hrs ago

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It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east

It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east

I can tell the past year has really worn on you

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It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east

if it snows, I don't care what's on the fookin' weather maps!

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