Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 one heck of spread between the gfs and the euro day 7 friday 1.18.13 gfs euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 one heck of spread between the gfs and the euro day 7 friday 1.18.13 gfs gfs day 7.gif euro euro day 7.gif The angle of the cold is all wrong on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Short on time today but want to thank you guys for the great discussion and glad to be a part of it. I thought I would add my thoughts for today, I don't expect these cold solutions to be consistent I think we will still see lots of inconsistency until the events....Here is a recap of Dec. 20 from 20 days ago with mention of shortwave for eastern US Jan 10-11, on Jan 5 I amend the 10-13th to be another warm up (instead of cold air) based on a more powerful GWO signal. Obviously every saw a peak in temps on Jan 9 and expecting another peak on sun 13th. With colder air arriving after that. Everything still jives for the rest of the thoughts through the beginning of Feb. especially in regards to 850 Temp forecasts. Again I think we will see the GFS/Euro hold back the coldest air until after the 24th. Even though it's on the edge right now bringing it in on the 23rd. Posted 20 December 2012 - 03:49 AM I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half. Posted 5 January 2013 - 12:18 AM I think the GFS is being a little too bullish on the cold air and too fast. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 12-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border. Again since I'm short on time today here are my thoughts from last night that still hold water today for myself at least. Posted Yesterday, 06:29 PM Well the 12z Euro has -36C in Maine for 1/19 12z and 12z GFS has -36C in northern MN at 12z for 1/20. And those types of temps have been showing up from time to time on the runs. That's obviously not the 24-27 time frame but gives credence that the models believe it's physically possible to achieve those type of temps in the next couple weeks. Plus as I recall the GFS was indicating these types of 850 temps arriving for Jan 15-16 back a week ago which now has been pushed back to the 19th. I mentioned previously that I thought that the models last week were rushing the coldest air in too soon. I still think that and think we will see this coldest air delayed again by the models for another 4-5 days til the at least the 24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 ECMWF Control has a major snowstorm at 186 hours for the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 ECMWF Control has a major snowstorm at 186 hours for the Mid Atlantic Lol you and ABC1234 love that control run, it has worked out once in the past 10 years when it showed a big storm and no other model did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I can always count on Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 ECMWF Control has a major snowstorm at 186 hours for the Mid Atlantic get it right man! it's at 156 hrs and it is a decent hit and the control model JI is referring to is actually the ensembles EDIT: DCA looks to be about .80" qpf and BWI around .7" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 get it right man! it's at 156 hrs and it is a decent hit and the control model JI is referring to is actually the ensembles No it's not the ensembles mitch, they have light precip wandering around, but the control run specifically states its not the ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 ens @ d10 are reloading and dumping the cold again. Overall ens not looking good for anything from the south but decent vort could definitely dive out of canada and and do something. At least it would be all snow. And maybe even stick on the ground for more than 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 try pushing this button LOL at Hoffman. Remember when he got hit by the flying trashcan lid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I need some good upslope location recommendations. I need a fix. It's been 2 years. Pouring rain here at 39 degrees at the moment. Blecchh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Ji HECS 384 on the GFS. Booked. Nice pattern wish it would come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS storm aside, I along with QV like the 25-30 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS and euro are at odds with how deep the cold air can push into the us and the placement and strength of the ridge out west. I suppose somewhere in between is always what is recommended. Euro too amped and gfs notsomuch right? Either way, it looks like enough energy either punches into canada from the pac or dives down from way up north. Not feeling the southern stream though. Looks like one of those patterns where precip chances (if any) don't really show up with any consistency till 5 days out. At least we won't be bored coming up. Probably cold, maybe dry, but not bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 No it's not the ensembles mitch, they have light precip wandering around, but the control run specifically states its not the ENS.It's the control run based off the 51 member ensemble suite. It states that it's not the mean. But it's definitely derived from the euro ensembles.GFS and CMC also have control runs of the ensembles. Meteorcentre has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 No it's not the ensembles mitch, they have light precip wandering around, but the control run specifically states its not the ENS. Accuwx site says :ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) Control EDIT: yeah, another thing on the page in fine print says: Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Predition System. This is not an ensemble mean. so wtf is it? never heard of that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 a control run is : The member of the ensemble obtained from the best initial analysis (The control is usually what is perturbed to produce the remaining members in the ensemble). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Accuwx site says :ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) Control EDIT: yeah, another thing on the page in fine print says: Control run of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble Predition System. This is not an ensemble mean. so wtf is it? never heard of that before You just posted that it's derived from the ensembles. But not the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 a control run is : The member of the ensemble obtained from the best initial analysis (The control is usually what is perturbed to produce the remaining members in the ensemble). Every ensemble product has a control run. The one on accuweather is from the euro ensembles. Meteocentre.com has the control runs from the gfs, cmc, srefs and rgem ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The control run is just a worse version of the OP pretty much...the ensemble mean performs better than the OP at that time range..so the control run is worse than both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 not only are there too many models, there are too many variations on each model why do they need all that garbage; just get the operational right ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Quoted from a PDF found at http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/msc/Met-Labs/ECMWF-EPS.pdf : "The ECMWF EPS represents uncertainty in the initial conditions by creating a set of 50 forecasts starting from slightly different states that are close, but not identical, toour best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere (the control)." "The divergence, or spread, of the control plus 50 forecasts gives an estimate of the uncertainty of the prediction on that particular day." Makes it sound like the operational run. Aren't the ensembles run from slightly perturbed initial conditions that are determined from the operational run? So what is the difference between the operational and the control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The control run is just a worse version of the OP pretty much...the ensemble mean performs better than the OP at that time range..so the control run is worse than both. The nws states that the control run is the best individual member of the entire suite based on initialization verification and re-run at a lower resolution then the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nothing really jumps at me on any of the models. Yes we have some cold days coming up but no snow at the moment and the pattern doesn't look really favorable at all for a big snowstorms. Hope everyone enjoys the warm weather this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 not only are there too many models, there are too many variations on each model why do they need all that garbage; just get the operational right ! Accuweenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nothing really jumps at me on any of the models. Yes we have some cold days coming up but no snow at the moment and the pattern doesn't look really favorable at all for a big snowstorms. Hope everyone enjoys the warm weather this weekend. What about Tuesday? Waves rolling up the front; vorts to our south. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 What about Tuesday? Waves rolling up the front; vorts to our south. Game on. tonight's NAM has it snowfall at 84 hours.....gettin' close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks like another trip to HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks like another trip to HGR not necessary if we can get a hair more suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 not necessary if we can get a hair more suppression Mitchnick the optimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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