Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 holy cold air -24 into wva this run with something passing brewing for the 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 wow -24c to bwi -20c to nc sc border lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 wow -24c to bwi -20c to nc sc border lol and still.. 3 days later http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 0-10f nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 i'll post these so we can go back and laugh at later when we are +9c 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 and still.. 3 days later http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Yes, but the run looks as if there are a few near misses that are east of the coast. Bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 and still.. 3 days later http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif i thought you hated people that posted at the 384 hour map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Where the cold dumps is not nearly as important as the H5 pattern. People obsense so much over getting it cold, but we could be 10 degrees and get rain the next day if the storm track is bad because of the general jet stream pattern. Now before a few people correctly blast me for pointing out that DC needs cold air to get snow because they never do well in marginal events...I agree, but you need BOTH and we are now entering into the 4 week window where if the storm track is favorable then the cold will usually work out OK even for DC. Its a small window but we are in it. All this focus on the cold seems pointless to me unless we get a more favorable storm track, its not going to matter. Fixed.....these initial arctic dumps into the rockies/western plains always seem to modify quite a bit before getting here...hopefully this evolves in a way more favorable for cold lasting longer than a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Man, that's a heck of a GFS run. Leave aside the details of individual shortwaves as depicted. With that much cold around, there'd be plenty of snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 i thought you hated people that posted at the 384 hour map That's the 360 map doofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 There is a reason DC snows come in 1-2 feast years a decade and 7 famine with maybe one average year thrown in. The ONLY pattern that is good for DC is a west based Nino or an east based one that is not too strong as to flood the continent with mild pac air. Neutral winters tend to have a lag effect, so we also can do good in a neutral following a nino. But following a Nina, we need a nino to rebooot the pattern before we will get the type of southern stream that we need in this area to really get big snows. WIthout those big events, we are no going to have a big year as we are too far south/west and in a bad location with regards to the mountains to get nickel and dimed to death and get much above 10" in a year. We desperately need a Nino to reboot things. I lost interst in this winter when the Nino faded and it become obvious we were not getting it this year. What do the analogs say about a neutral after a neutral after a Nina after a Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 GFS is good enough for now. Major longwave shift going on. Paying close attention to details with shortwaves is kinda nutty. Anything can happen at this point because we just don't know where the pv sets up and how deep the airmass below gets into the US. I would hedge towards the cold sticking around longer than shorter. I don't think the end of the gfs is the likely scenario. IF (big if) the airmass as depicted does dump all over the eastern half of the country then it's going to be more stubborn to dislodge than a marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 First run in a while that gives me hope for a good pattern setting up, but I want to see it continue in future runs. Man, that's a heck of a GFS run. Leave aside the details of individual shortwaves as depicted. With that much cold around, there'd be plenty of snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Last time DC was in the single digits was right near the last inauguration. 17th. That's one of those stats that used to be fairly regular that are now pretty unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 and still.. 3 days later http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Let's let some optimism live in here for just a second. I don't care if its false hope. Between you and Wes sometimes I think you want us all to throw a toaster in the tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Last time DC was in the single digits was right near the last inauguration. 17th. That's one of those stats that used to be fairly regular that are now pretty unusual. If it wasn't for the recent winters in europe, russia, and china I would say those days are gone but i think it's more a function of nh winter circ patterns than lack of actual cold air. Running the polar loop through then entire gfs run it looks like the coldest air in the nh is on our side of the globe for the foreseeable future. When's the last time a pv like the one currently modeled pushed air into our area? 2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Some cold analogs here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 lol at the ggem http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 again with the cold, but not very much snow in those analogs either. Some cold analogs here: 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 1/19/1994 last time dc got below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Some cold analogs here: 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif 94 ftw That was some cold wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 lol at the ggem http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Yes please... till 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 94 ftw That was some cold wx. brutal i think we had a hi of 12 with ocean effect flurries. here is the maps from 1.19.94 and hr 288 12z 1.11.13 1.19.94 12z gfs hr 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 '94 was just stupid crazy. DC had a high of 10 one day. High. Ice storm after ice storm. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I hate cold but I'd root for 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 '94 was just stupid crazy. DC had a high of 10 one day. High. Ice storm after ice storm. Brutal. below.. the 19th only got to 8. happily it was 61 on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 '94 was just stupid crazy. DC had a high of 10 one day. High. Ice storm after ice storm. Brutal. dc had a hi of 8 low of -4 a departure of -32 for the day iad was 6 and -6 departure of -30 ric was 12 and -1 a departure of -29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 dc had a hi of 8 low of -4 a departure of -32 for the day iad was 6 and -6 departure of -30 ric was 12 and -1 a departure of -29 Ridiculous man. I remember going out in front of my house, sort of skating on the solid sheet of ice on our street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Wes is the slowest damn typist I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Some cold analogs here: 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif The negatives on the current map are generally where you want the positives to get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.